Standard Life publish 'proposal for members' - inc. FIXED shares estimate £444 - £536

Milarky

ReportInvestor wrote:

...then muliply the number of shares x £2.65 to get a rough idea.

Is there any reason why the IPO share price estimate comes out in "£2-3" range? They could have issued any number of shares per customers. '185' looks like a number derived from the desire to set a mimum figure suspiciously (you'll note I suspect a lot of things!) close to the magic £500 mark does it not? But they could have just as easily given everyone '500' shares (a nice round number) with a share price estimate of '90p - £1.15' could they not? Is this employment of numbers just pretended cleverness on the part of the (highly paid) city advice they've had - to make it seem more involved than it really is - like selling your house?

ReportInvestor

Search me, M

200 shares would have easier on the mental arithmatic. I have to get a calculator out for 185 .

EdInvestor

Average windfall is put at 1,700.

Size of average policy is 14-15k.

Percentage size of variable rate on top of basic will be bigger for long-standing members than newer entrants.

silvercar

We have two endowment policies in joint names. unfortunately OH is first named on both so we will only get one lot of windfall shares. :sad:

Saturday's post brought two red warning leters. :mad:

EdInvestor

silvercar wrote:

We have two endowment policies in joint names. unfortunately OH is first named on both so we will only get one lot of windfall shares. :sad:

You'll only get one basic loss of membership windfall (the 500 quid) because there's only one member.But they should add together the value of the two policies to determine the variable windfall on top.

So you might get more than you think

Saturday's post brought two red warning leters. :mad:

You have three years from Saturday to put in a misselling complaint, if appropriate, to whoever sold you the policy (might not be SL).

See this site to see if you have grounds to complain:

https://www.endowmentaction.co.uk

Bennifred

Assuming the demutualisation happens, I'm wondering whether most policy holders are minded to sell on any shares immediately or hang on to them? Do you think it is better to realise the value, is it going to be risky to hang on to them, or are they likely to increase in value to any significant degree? Anyone got a crystal ball?

silvercar

You have three years from Saturday to put in a misselling complaint, if appropriate, to whoever sold you the policy (might not be SL).

Tried that on receipt of the previous yellow letter, SL gave the name of a limited company, that has now been dissolved, as the seller. We did speak to the (now retired) director - who laughed in our face!
Pre-1988 so the end of the road.

Bagger

The SL pack is due to arrive in the post from today. Has anyone received their pack with their personal quotation? If so, you might be able to give us some idea of the way they've done their calculation.

Bagger

Milarky

Bennifred wrote:

Assuming the demutualisation happens, I'm wondering whether most policy holders are minded to sell on any shares immediately or hang on to them? Do you think it is better to realise the value, is it going to be risky to hang on to them, or are they likely to increase in value to any significant degree? Anyone got a crystal ball?

The alternative is to hold the shares and sell the policy*. You could also buy more shares with a share of the proceeds. Attractions: Shares are likely to do as well as other quoted companies on average - and therefore better than the potential returns on the with profits fund. No 'legacy' issues because you own the shares 'outright' (what you have you hold). Dividends likely. Dangers: Policies still have guaranteed values - however static - representing something worth having. Shares have none. Your endowment (or other policy) was taken out for a contingency like the repayment of a fixed figure at a fixed date in the future. (Actually, that's not going to be a disadvantage of holding shares is it? You have complete freedom of when to dispose of those - or any other listed shares - freedom which is much more constrained in the case of your policy). Still, the main 'danger' you face in holding share is a falling share price. The main protection against this is if your contingency isn't required (eg no more / rescheduled mortgage) any longer . Another way to look at the 'to sell or not sell' question is that the shares are free and you didn't need the cash that much anyway - since you've held your policy when you could have surrendered it.

*Details on the bonus shares so far out suggest they are not linked to the continued holding of a qualifying policy. It looks like SL have missed a trick since - as I suggested in another thread - they could have set out to reward premium paying customers with share perks. Instead they are just going to invite customers to load up with the shares at the outset (£1.1bn retained from the float). If true it seems they don't particularly care how much of the wp fund stays and how much leaves.

ReportInvestor

Bennifred wrote:

Assuming the demutualisation happens, I'm wondering whether most policy holders are minded to sell on any shares immediately or hang on to them? Do you think it is better to realise the value, is it going to be risky to hang on to them, or are they likely to increase in value to any significant degree? Anyone got a crystal ball?

To hold or not, that is the question. And wouldn't we all like to know .

My instinct is to hold for three reasons.

a) The 5% bonus shares after 12 months (plus dividends, I hope) give a slight cushion against a market fall.
b) There is some bid / merger talk in the insurer sector. If Standard does well, the shares could perform. If it doesn't, then there is likely to be a bid - again underpinning the share price. Standard said today that it has already received a merger offer of sorts.
c) Standard hasn't raised too much capital from institutional investors ( "just £1.1bn - hopefully just 20% of the company), so there could be some further demand for the shares from the City - depending on how they see future prospects.

Then again, a single share adds to stock market risk and holding will not be the right decision for everyone - and may not be for me .