Swine 'flu - What economic impact?

michaels

For those of you 'reassured' by the existence of a vaccine - I remember coming across this story a couple of months ago and a quick google confirmed it: http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2008/03/dayintech_0324

We have had an awful lot of 'reassurances' since the outbreak in Mexico (Containment, antivirals, only underlying health condition at risk, very mild) and now 'vaccine' - I am not that worried about the virus but do dislike being treated like a child with the assumption that if you put the facts before the public they will panic rather than acting rationally.

misskool

michaels wrote: »

For those of you 'reassured' by the existence of a vaccine - I remember coming across this story a couple of months ago and a quick google confirmed it: http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2008/03/dayintech_0324

We have had an awful lot of 'reassurances' since the outbreak in Mexico (Curtainment, antivirals, only underlying health condition at risk, very mild) and now 'vaccine' - I am not that worried about the virus but do dislike being treated like a child with the assumption that if you put the facts before the public they will panic rather than acting rationally.

The facts are being put to the public. The real problem is that no one knows much about this flu because it's new. There is also a rather strange transliteration that goes on when scientists speak to journalists who then report it to the public.

There are lots of people being sensible and reasonable about this but there will always be those who will be more worried (with or without a good reason).

michaels

So we are looking at deaths increasing exponentially now as well.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8154419.stm

No one yet thinking of changing their spending plans (holidays, day trips, cinema, shopping trips) - I rather think they may be.

Plus of course how many days of work for those ill or caring - I can see this wiping out those 'green shoots'.

themanbearpig

The government has also warned that deaths from swine flu this winter could be between 19,000 and 65,000 in the UK.

So times this by 10-15x because the government are liars.



Best case scenario 190,000 deaths, worst cost 1m

BettiePage

michaels wrote: »

So we are looking at deaths increasing exponentially now as well.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8154419.stm

No one yet thinking of changing their spending plans (holidays, day trips, cinema, shopping trips) - I rather think they may be.

Plus of course how many days of work for those ill or caring - I can see this wiping out those 'green shoots'.

Not in this house. Our tickets are booked for 8pm tonight to see Harry Potter.

Cleaver

BettiePage wrote: »

Not in this house. Our tickets are booked for 8pm tonight to see Harry Potter.

Think I'd prefer a bout of swine flu.

Masomnia

themanbearpig wrote: »

So times this by 10-15x because the government are liars.



Best case scenario 190,000 deaths, worst cost 1m

I don't know, I make the mortality rate 0.05% so far.

Assuming it doesn't get any more virulent than it already is, we'd need a population of about 380 million to make your best case scenario.

amcluesent

Tamiflu has some preventative effect. The smart move will be to bell the National Flu Service, complain of all the flu symptoms and get your Tamiflu; start taking to minimise the severity of flu infection.

You know that the supplies will run out...

bluey890

Masomnia wrote: »

I don't know, I make the mortality rate 0.05% so far.

Is this Worldwide or UK? Could you provide the source data. Cheers.

Masomnia

amcluesent wrote: »

Tamiflu has some preventative effect. The smart move will be to bell the National Flu Service, complain of all the flu symptoms and get your Tamiflu; start taking to minimise the severity of flu infection.

You know that the supplies will run out...

And deprive people who may actually need it?

Taking drugs, which you don't need, that may have unpleasant side-effects is a bit silly.