Swine 'flu - What economic impact?

themanbearpig

Snooze wrote: »

LOL @ all the 'you're all gonna die unless you barracade yourself in your house' scare-mongering in this thread. Ridiculous. :rolleyes:

Just get on with your lives as normal and it'll disappear just as fast as all the other 'you're all gonna dia' diseases did (Bird Flu, Cow disease, etc)

Rob

Carry on like normal, but be a little more vigilant about regularly washing your hands after coming home from work/supermarket/doctors etc and try to avoid confined spaces like lifts, you will minimize your chances of getting ill.

Assuming the death rate is as low as one of the common flus, but if everyone in the country gets it, it will result in thousands of deaths.

michaels

0.5% (mortality rate) x 60m (population) x 33% (Infection rate) = 100k

Now a bit of sensitivity analysis - try 2% mortality and 90% infection = 1.1m

Should take pressure of housing...

...anyone else unable to get on to the NHS direct website?

tomterm8

misskool wrote: »

Computer models work the same across all fields

The more data there is, the better the model. There isn't quite so much data on swine flu so the data is less accurate than something that's been thoroughly mapped.

While computer models work the same across all fields, they are not equally effective at producing accurate predictions across all fields. For example, it is fairly easy to predict whether a year will be a leap year billions of years in advance. It is more difficult to predict planetary movement, but you can still do it hundreds of years in advance. Whereas, predicting what value the FTSE will be next week is very difficult:)

One of the most interesting pieces of research from the late 90's was an experiment. The researchers compared the effectiveness of different modelling teams. It showed that even with modelling techniques such as neural networks which normally operate as a black box, the ability of a computer modeller to predict the future without technology was roughly proportional to the effectiveness of the model at predicting the future. There has been little research into this, for some reason AI teams don't want to cut their own throat, but it seems you really need to understand a subject before you can effectively model it.

lostinrates

Snooze wrote: »

Just get on with your lives as normal and it'll disappear just as fast as all the other 'you're all gonna dia' diseases did (Bird Flu, Cow disease, etc)

Rob

While I agree with much of your sentiment (and the poster below who pointed out attention to good hygeine practise is not bad idea) its also worth pointing out those diseases that didn't impact on you DID have consequenses for many directly, and a wider economic cost.. The trick is to get the balance of concern right. Singlesue probably needs to be a little more vigilent than, say Viva. I'm not too worried about the people in my family at all, not that I think we'll not get it (several people in my father's place of work have had it, so chances are he's reasonably likely to bring it home) but I'm confident that the ''vulnerable'' peoplewill get th treatment they needthe others will get duvet time and I might throw together some chicken soup to freeze in case we're all at the worst point of the flu for the same day or two.

vivatifosi

lostinrates wrote: »

While I agree with much of your sentiment (and the poster below who pointed out attention to good hygeine practise is not bad idea) its also worth pointing out those diseases that didn't impact on you DID have consequenses for many directly, and a wider economic cost.. The trick is to get the balance of concern right. Singlesue probably needs to be a little more vigilent than, say Viva. I'm not too worried about the people in my family at all, not that I think we'll not get it (several people in my father's place of work have had it, so chances are he's reasonably likely to bring it home) but I'm confident that the ''vulnerable'' peoplewill get th treatment they needthe others will get duvet time and I might throw together some chicken soup to freeze in case we're all at the worst point of the flu for the same day or two.

That was the point that I was trying to get at lir. I was absolutely delighted to hear from a "real person" and not only that, but one whose opinion I trust, that it wasn't that serious. Hence me repeating it. That said, I can understand Sue being more worried than me. I had a conversation with a relative of mine this afternoon who has swine flu outbreaks all around her. Her view, which I find a very healthy one, is "well I've fought bacterial meniningitis and nearly died, if swine flu kills me then I'd be really bl**dy unlucky".

SingleSue

Found out this afternoon that youngests specialist outreach teacher had swine flu lin the last few weeks and because she was due to see him at the end of last week (when she had effectively got over it), cancelled and set it up for this week just to be on the safe side because of youngests brush with death last year.

She is fine and said the actual illness was a lot milder than a bout of normal flu she had a few years ago.

Made me feel a lot happier knowing someone directly who has contracted it and is perfectly fine.

Youngest is in major panic mode though!

amcluesent

A third of the population may catch swine flu this winter and the virus could be here for up to five years

Sir Liam, who is chief medical officer for England, said it was "too early to say" whether a mortality rate of one in 200 - as suggested by some experts - was accurate.

So 20,000,000 peeps get it, 1 in 200 die, 100,000 additional deaths this winter. Remember the burning pyres during foot and mouth? It'll be like that (and not just for Hindus)!

dandy-candy

Back to the original subject -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-flu/5827796/Foreign-schools-cancel-British-trips-due-to-swine-flu.html

Looks like more economy woes!

Storm

Well, today at my work we've had 2 people go off with suspected swine flu (they're not testing apparently anymore!) We've basically said to everyone that's been in contact with them that if they get flu-like symptoms to go home and call their GP, to minimise spreading within the workforce. Thankfully, the business we're in, if the worst happens and loads of people go off with it we could actually stop delivery of our services for a few days, but for other companies I could imagine several cases within the workforce could have a very significant impact on profit.

System

2 more people I know have it now, seems to be everywhere all of a sudden!