Steady increase in June house prices

StevieJ

mbga9pgf wrote: »

No, all those figures prove is the average price of selling properties has gone up. It doesnt represent the market as a whole when volumes are off a cliff NECESSARILY.

I thought it was the selling (marginal) properties were the ones that were supposed to drag the market down, you remember, forced sellers, divorce, death etc.

mbga9pgf

Statistics dear chap. If the cheaper properties are not selling due to lack of FTB, what happens to the average sale price across all properties?

Chucky, it depends. A lot of the stuff shifting earlier on in the crash may have been BTL filling their boots with heavily discounted newbuild flats, whilst the histeria was still around for those too stupid to realise what was going on. To that end, the reported price falls thusfar by haliwide may be over-egged.

We shall find out over the next few weeks anyways as the LR correct for this in their figures; if the LR figures go heavily positive in 2-3 months time we shall have our answer!

StevieJ

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Statistics dear chap. If the cheaper properties are not selling due to lack of FTB, what happens to the average sale price across all properties?

Doesn't work like that good try though.

mbga9pgf

Why doesnt it? Want to show me why it doesnt? Seriously interested.

chucky

mbga9pgf wrote: »

We shall find out over the next few weeks anyways as the LR correct for this in their figures; if the LR figures go heavily positive in 2-3 months time we shall have our answer!

which i don't think will be the case, the numbers will be pretty much flat - there will be areas that are not as 'affected' by the recession and the LR averages will be skewed.

closely looking at these numbers will show many areas moving into positive territory by year end. others will stagnate - have a look at historical numbers during recessions and there are some stand out areas that are hit heavily with price drops.

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

which i don't think will be the case - there will be areas that are not as 'affected' by the recession and the LR averages will be skewed.

closely looking at these numbers will show many areas moving into positive territory by year end. others will stagnate - have a look at historical numbers during recessions and there are some stand out areas that are hit heavily with price drops.

Show him Methr Tydvill chucky, he obviously don't get it. :rolleyes:

mbga9pgf

I agree fully about the disparity, but this recession is nationwide and across class boundaries and financial sectors; all regions will get hit, some moreso than others. Newbuild city centre slumflats are already down 40% off peak whereas detached properties in wilts are shifting with a heavy discount, but nowhere near 40% (at the moment).

I think you are going to be seriously disappointed over your christmas LR figures!

StevieJ

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Why doesnt it? Want to show me why it doesnt? Seriously interested.

• Nationwide house prices are mix adjusted - i.e. we track a representative house price over time rather than the simple average price. We do not use the simple average price (Land Registry uses this method) because it is too easily influenced by a change in the mix (i.e. proportion of different property types, locations etc) of houses
• Although it remains similar to the Halifax method we substantially updated our system in 1993 following the publication of the 1991 census data. These improvements mean that our system is more robust to lower sample sizes because it better identifies and tracks our representative house price

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/method_qs.htm

mbga9pgf

Fair one Steve! Learn something every day!

chucky

mbga9pgf wrote: »

I agree fully about the disparity, but this recession is nationwide and across class boundaries and financial sectors; all regions will get hit, some moreso than others. Newbuild city centre slumflats are already down 40% off peak whereas detached properties in wilts are shifting with a heavy discount, but nowhere near 40% (at the moment).

where you say all class boundaries and financial sectors i have my doubts - it has impacted all sectors but the lower earners within these groups will be impacted more and more painfully. here are the areas that are struggling. add long term unemployed owner occupiers and desperate BTL into that group.

if these were that large we would have more repos - come 2011 when it all really hits home. that's when you will see more carnage.

those 40% drops of new builds would be in areas where they have saturated the market and there is low demand. they're the ones i'm talking about.

mbga9pgf wrote: »

I think you are going to be seriously disappointed over your christmas LR figures!

can't see it but we'll have to wait and see