So, is the recession over or not ?

setmefree2

Is a UK economic recovery in sight?

The first monthly increase in manufacturing output since early 2008 has re-ignited the debate about the green shoots of recovery. Economists, even at the gloomier end of the spectrum, are dusting down and reworking previous forecasts.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8093865.stm

Hugh Pym's view for anyone who is interested

ruggedtoast

From my vantage point I havent lost my job but there are a lot of icebergs on the horizon.

I work in Education. Thanks to Brownonimics the UK is now so skint that all public sector spending will be pared back to the bone.

We are facing an era of massive underfunding in education places, research and provision. Especially at the lower skilled vocational end of the market.

This is unhappily coinciding with a time when ever increasing numbers of young people are leaving compulsory education with no work to go to, and few prospects.

For many of these college or university is no longer an option due to the cut in spaces. The place I work for has already cut hundreds of staff and sold a lot of its estate to try and prepare for the coming Siberian winter that is looming over many British institutions.

I hope they dont hang around causing trouble because there wont be much money around for policing either.

Naturally Brownomics has a solution for this, personal debt. As the only thing Brown knows is the more you borrow the more people want to lend you and the cheaper they want to do it, University fees will be uncapped in 2010 or 2011.

Most students will be looking at taking on £10k to £20k per year of debt to study. The state wont have the resources to help them out much so we will in all probability be turning to the American system where people in their 50s still have thousands in unpaid loans oweing to private banks.

This pattern is being repeated over and over the public sector. The NHS, urban regeneration, charities, care, research in industry.

Theres a lot of animosity towards the public sector here but most of it contributes to the economy.

People selling mortgages, or working in a call centre for Jamster selling 100 quid ring tone packages to little kids, do not. But the way things are looking they will be the engine of our economic economy.

Scary thought.

Max_Headroom_3

ad9898 wrote: »

, time of course will be our friend.

Albeit a friend that will eventually kill us all...!

Dan:_4

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Why is it "Lovely" that these have gone up?

err...signs that things are starting to improve....

Why, do you want to see them all down?

setmefree2

Fine weather helps Homebase sales

Sales of gardening and outdoor products at Homebase have been boosted by the recent good weather.
Home Retail Group said like-for-like sales at the store rose 3.8% to £465m in the 13 weeks to 30 May compared with the same period a year ago.
Like-for-like sales at Argos, also owned by Home Retail Group, fell 2.8%, but its owner said the performance was better than expected.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8094524.stm



Something else for the greenshooters.

StevieJ

There is that Yes and No again, are we not allowed to vote for the obvious Don't Know

Thrugelmir

ad9898 wrote: »

As we get wide ranging views on this forum, I thought it would be a good indicator to put up a simple poll, Is the recession over or not, Yes or No. We have had lots of headlines over the past 2 months bulling up all sides of the economy, especially the housing market since 'that' 0.9% rise in the Nationwide index in March, Halifax came in with a -1.7% that month but it was pretty much completely ignored by the media.

So, are we just talking our way out of recession, and if we are, how can it last ? or are there concrete economic fundamentals here and around the world that are going to support growth in the economy and the housing market ? Your thoughts.

House prices have no bearing on whether we are are in a recession or not. As they merely reflect what people are willing to pay for a property depending upon a number of factors.

ad9898_3

Dan: wrote: »

err...signs that things are starting to improve....

Why, do you want to see them all down?

Housing is the ultimate ponzi scheme, only infinite input at the bottom can sustain it over time, of course this is impossible, so we have boom and bust, 50% of the people are hurt by booms, the 50% hurt by busts (roughly), much better to somehow put a cap on it. Society and our children (who homeowners transfer their debt to at the bottom of the pyramid) would be much better off without it.

That's why I would still like the idea of a salary multiple cap, unfortunately it will never happen, as the powers that be (MP's, government, lawmakers etc..) are all somewhere in the pyramid and so only have interest in prices going up, with little or no thought to the people who have to take on more debt than them lower down in the ponzi.

ad9898_3

StevieJ wrote: »

There is that Yes and No again, are we not allowed to vote for the obvious Don't Know

No sitting on the fence Steve, just look at the economic fundamentals, or the headlines, whichever you prefer and vote.;)

StevieJ

ruggedtoast wrote: »

From my vantage point I havent lost my job but there are a lot of icebergs on the horizon.

I work in Education. Thanks to Brownonimics the UK is now so skint that all public sector spending will be pared back to the bone.

We are facing an era of massive underfunding in education places, research and provision. Especially at the lower skilled vocational end of the market.

This is unhappily coinciding with a time when ever increasing numbers of young people are leaving compulsory education with no work to go to, and few prospects.

For many of these college or university is no longer an option due to the cut in spaces. The place I work for has already cut hundreds of staff and sold a lot of its estate to try and prepare for the coming Siberian winter that is looming over many British institutions.

Cue for a discussion on why so many kids need to go to university in the first place to gain no more advantage than those that passed 'A' levels a generation ago, but with plenty of debt to cheer them up