So, is the recession over or not ?

Dan:_4

ad9898 wrote: »

I thought the standard definition was when we had positive GDP growth ?, last quarter was revised down to -2.2%, it would indeed be staggering if we went from this to a positive, but hey, I ceased being amazed about what 'talk' can do these days.

Confidence is a major factor, and people seem far happier than 6 months ago.

Harry_Powell

Dan: wrote: »

Confidence is a major factor, and people seem far happier than 6 months ago.

Tell that to the thousands who have lost their jobs in the last 6 months!

Dan:_4

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Tell that to the thousands who have lost their jobs in the last 6 months!

I don't know any of them :rolleyes:

Max_Headroom_3

Harry_Powell wrote: »

The best definition I saw was on here and posted by generali. He suggested that instead of basing the end of a recession on two quarters of economic growth (and let's face it, when you hit the bottom, the only way is up), the recession should last until the economy is back to where it was at the start of the recession.

.

At the start of the recession we were in a massive unsustainable credit fuelled boom.

So by that definition we will be in recession right up until the point were we'll be on the verge of plunging into another!

I for one hope we never reach the point we were at just before the recession started.

ad9898_3

Dan: wrote: »

Confidence is a major factor, and people seem far happier than 6 months ago.

I'd agree Dan, however, were things so bad last year that we have had our perspective altered, are things bad now, just not as bad as last year, so are we are mistaking bad now for good because we are comparing the situation to last year ?....... if you see what I mean.

Dan:_4

ad9898 wrote: »

I'd agree Dan, however, were things so bad last year that we have had our perspective altered, are things bad now, just not as bad as last year, so are we are mistaking bad now for good because we are comparing the situation to last year ?....... if you see what I mean.

I see what you mean, and you could well be right. I think the point is everyone is happy to see some sort of improvement compared to what we were going through during the whole of 2008.

House Prices Up
FTSE Up
Pound Up

Lovely!

mitchaa

ad9898 wrote: »

As we get wide ranging views on this forum, I thought it would be a good indicator to put up a simple poll, Is the recession over or not, Yes or No. We have had lots of headlines over the past 2 months bulling up all sides of the economy, especially the housing market since 'that' 0.9% rise in the Nationwide index in March, Halifax came in with a -1.7% that month but it was pretty much completely ignored by the media.

So, are we just talking our way out of recession, and if we are, how can it last ? or are there concrete economic fundamentals here and around the world that are going to support growth in the economy and the housing market ? Your thoughts.

We talked our way into the recession so im sure we can talk our way out;) The media as you know have a very strong influence on the way things go.

Simple answer to your question is NO, it's too soon. However, a better question would have been....Have we seen the worst? The recession now in my opinion is frizzling away into nothing more substantial and within 12 months we will start to see growth again. (Chancellor seems to agree anyway)

Harry_Powell

Max_Headroom wrote: »

At the start of the recession we were in a massive unsustainable credit fuelled boom.

So by that definition we will be in recession right up until the point were we'll be on the verge of plunging into another!

I for one hope we never reach the point we were at just before the recession started.

Did we go from boom to bust in just one quarter? I'm sure that we had a slowdown the quarter before we went negative. NB. We're talking about the economy here, not the housing market... we had pretty much full employment prior to the recession, would you not want to return to that point?

Can someone supply a graph to show UK GDP spanning the period just before and during the recession?

Harry_Powell

Dan: wrote: »

I see what you mean, and you could well be right. I think the point is everyone is happy to see some sort of improvement compared to what we were going through during the whole of 2008.

House Prices Up <- ?
FTSE Up
Pound Up <- ?

Lovely!

Why is it "Lovely" that these have gone up?

ad9898_3

Dan: wrote: »

I see what you mean, and you could well be right. I think the point is everyone is happy to see some sort of improvement compared to what we were going through during the whole of 2008.

House Prices Up
FTSE Up
Pound Up

Lovely!

Mmmm, lets see if it lasts, I just feel the whole thing feels a bit artificial, like hearing and being constantly told one thing, but deep down have a gut feeling it's something entirely different, time of course will be our friend.