So, is the recession over or not ?

ad9898_3

As we get wide ranging views on this forum, I thought it would be a good indicator to put up a simple poll, Is the recession over or not, Yes or No. We have had lots of headlines over the past 2 months bulling up all sides of the economy, especially the housing market since 'that' 0.9% rise in the Nationwide index in March, Halifax came in with a -1.7% that month but it was pretty much completely ignored by the media.

So, are we just talking our way out of recession, and if we are, how can it last ? or are there concrete economic fundamentals here and around the world that are going to support growth in the economy and the housing market ? Your thoughts.

ruggedtoast

Well as they say, its a slowdown when your neighbour loses his job and a recession when you lose yours.

Personally I'm not seeing many signs of growth in my industry. I concede that there is economic stimulus from the staggering sums our great leader has borrowed and then flung willy nilly at his friends in the Square Mile.

I am not sure this is a reason to celebrate however.

Dan:_4

in a word, No.

Chris2685

It is possible that they can fudge the figures so it looks like we are no longer in a recession, but just because it says it on paper does not make it real.

Dan:_4

Dan: wrote: »

in a word, No.

Just to Add: But this does not mean that house prices will fall another 20%

Harry_Powell

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Well as they say, its a slowdown when your neighbour loses his job and a recession when you lose yours.

I think the actual quote is that it's a recession when your neighbour loses his job and a depression when you lose yours. A kinda play on the dual meaning of the word, 'depression'. I'd certainly be depressed if I lost my job.

The best definition I saw was on here and posted by generali. He suggested that instead of basing the end of a recession on two quarters of economic growth (and let's face it, when you hit the bottom, the only way is up), the recession should last until the economy is back to where it was at the start of the recession.

I don't think many of us will think we're out of recession until things are back to 'normal', so using generali's definition I'd say the recession is definitely not over. Using the standard definition of recession, I'd have to say that it was and so I voted 'yes'.

I can imagine us slipping back into recession again though when QE stops.

System

I only deal in facts, so until the next quarters GDP figures are out, I don't know

Really2

No. don't wee need two quarters of growth to be out anyway?

So the earliest we could be out is by the end Sept/Oct.

Even if we were the effects will still be felt for a year or so after.

System

Really2 wrote: »

No. don't wee need two quarters of growth to be out anyway?

Other way round, 2 negative quarters in a row to be in, so if we get even a 0% growth next quarter then we are officially out :beer:

ad9898_3

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Using the standard definition of recession, I'd have to say that it was and so I voted 'yes'.

I thought the standard definition was when we had positive GDP growth ?, last quarter was revised down to -2.2%, it would indeed be staggering if we went from this to a positive, but hey, I have ceased being amazed about what 'talk' can do these days.

Harry_Powell

ad9898 wrote: »

I thought the standard definition was when we had positive GDP growth ?, last quarter was revised down to -2.2%, it would indeed be staggering if we went from this to a positive, but hey, I ceased being amazed about what 'talk' can do these days.

It's all just BS anyway. Just because a financial definition tells us that we're out of recession, it doesn't mean anything to those who have lost their jobs and are struggling to find new ones.