Halifax +2.6 % MoM

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

there you go Graham - all we needed was a date.
now that it's there i see what you are saying - i never disagreed with you by the way just queried the date and the scale of the graph.

Yer, gotta admit, you never said it was wrong, like others did. I still say, I cannot give you a date!!

Chucky, am I seeing a more neutral side of you recently?

A lot of your posts now seem to be moving from ramp teritory into a sort of acceptance teritory. No ramping and spinning something, but no dragging it down either.

I'm actually having to now thank some of your posts instead of looking at them and thinking "what on earth".!!

nickj_2

surely an interest rate rise has to be on the cards for next month #
as unsustainable house prices and borrowing were part of the downturn cause , do we really need hp's to rise even more

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Yer, gotta admit, you never said it was wrong, like others did. I still say, I cannot give you a date!!

Chucky, am I seeing a more neutral side of you recently?

A lot of your posts now seem to be moving from ramp teritory into a sort of acceptance teritory. No ramping and spinning something, but no dragging it down either.

I'm actually having to now thank some of your posts instead of looking at them and thinking "what on earth".!!

no acceptance or denial here, just my own views that i won't change them unless i see something different to convince me.i'm not a pessimist by nature and see oppoprtunities in many things. the accusations of ramping or spinning are wrong - especially if you think i can move the economy on this sub-forum.

however, i'm bored of the constant attacks just for having a different view to someone else and my posts not being read.

just read my posts Graham you might learn something just like i sometimes see things in a different way when i see yours

ad9898_3

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Yer, gotta admit, you never said it was wrong, like others did. I still say, I cannot give you a date!!

Chucky, am I seeing a more neutral side of you recently?

A lot of your posts now seem to be moving from ramp teritory into a sort of acceptance teritory. No ramping and spinning something, but no dragging it down either.

I'm actually having to now thank some of your posts instead of looking at them and thinking "what on earth".!!

I value the bulls contribution to the board, chucky, Dan, ISTL, mitchaa, pickles etc....(that should get me 5 thanks:D) they all make valid points, and don't troll. Take a look at the bulls on HPC, now they are knobs, rarely do they have any valid points, they just come out with crap with zero back up, we are pretty lucky here I reckon.

mewbie_2

Jesus, what a sickening love fest. Bear can never lie down with bull. End of.

ad9898_3

nickj wrote: »

surely an interest rate rise has to be on the cards for next month #
as unsustainable house prices and borrowing were part of the downturn cause , do we really need hp's to rise even more

The housing and borrowing pyramid is a real quandary, the only real way to stop them is to not let them form in the first place, once formed they will automatically self destruct at some point as you need an infinite amount of input at the bottom to sustain them, in our boring 4 dimensional universe, this is simply impossible.

adr0ck

ad9898 wrote: »

My view is the entire HPI bubble from 2001 will be unwound, it won't happen overnight, it won't happen in a sraight line down either. The events of this week are typical in the cycle, the only surprise is it's taken so long, the bull trap we are currently seeing in some areas, is a normal part of this cycle, it may last a while until QE stops, but when it does the next leg down will begin. The facts will overcome the spin....... eventually.

i don't believe house prices will fall to £90k as your suggesting

maybe if we had a huge catastrophe of some sort

Graham_Devon

adr0ck wrote: »

i don't believe house prices will fall to £90k as your suggesting

maybe if we had a huge catastrophe of some sort

I wouldn't say catastrophe.

I would say unemployment is rocketing. Interest rates are going to HAVE to go up. VAT will soon be going up. Other taxes are going up. Living costs (fuel, food) is going up. Wage rises are going down. Bankrupcies are going up.

If you only have £50 worth of cash notes in your pocket when you go into Tescos, you can only spend £50, they won't let you out with £60 worth of stuff.

If next week your new amount is £40, as you have had to pay increases in fuel, you can only get £40 worth of stuff.

Same with houses. When your salary gives you x amount, and your housing, living costs etc all go up, you have less money to be able to afford a home.

Whereas the banks used to let you turn your £50 into £60 ia debt. Now, you will only have that £40, and thats it.

Long gone are the days when you could walk into a shop with £40 and walk out with £80 worth of goods and an IOU.

ad9898_3

adr0ck wrote: »

i don't believe house prices will fall to £90k as your suggesting

maybe if we had a huge catastrophe of some sort

Fair enough, but there are many more chapters in this book to come, the effects of unemployment, government/personal debt, public spending cuts, tax hikes, IR's are yet to be seen, the HPC we have seen so far is purely down to the financial crisis, the other factors have not yet come into play.

Don't forget we are in the 'new credit card, let's go and max it out phase' of government policy at this time, not only has this 'credit card bill' not come in yet, neither have any of the others, it will be then, when we start to see the full picture.

What is certain is all these factors will be bad for the housing market, how bad ??, only time will tell.

adr0ck

if average prices were £90k all homes would be snapped up by BTL

the returns would be fantastic

you would also not have any new homes built

not even housing associations would build any