Halifax +2.6 % MoM

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

Worst part is bottom is not until 2030+ but we are set to enjoy a bull trap for the next 12 years ish.:)

Wouldn't actually.

Have you seen how quick that graph falls? Off the edge of a cliff stuff?

If you DO want to impose a timeline on it, I see the bulltrap lasting max from here of 1 year, then massive falls over 3 years. Which would bring us to around 2013-14, which loads of people have predicted as "the bottom". The line in the graph an the timeline on the second graphfollow this perfectly.

Seems the bulls have quite convinently, averaged out the timeline, instead of plotting the timeline accurately.

Stick 2009/10/11/12/13 on that second graph, and I think you will find it will be into downward line teritory.

What you have indeed done, is stuck 20 years on the end of the graph, and drawn a slight downward trend, instead of following the plummeting line.

If I have to explain this, I will super impose, to prove you completely wrong in your timelines.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Wouldn't actually.


Seems the bulls have quite convinently, averaged out the timeline, instead of plotting the timeline accurately.

Stick 2009/10/11/12/13 on that second graph, and I think you will find it will be into downward line teritory.

What you have indeed done, is stuck 20 years on the end of the graph, and drawn a slight downward trend, instead of following the plummeting line.

If I have to explain this, I will super impose, to prove you completely wrong in your timelines.

Please do I did it visualy but please do, maintain the scale please.

Don't forget to get that bull trap to fit, as you said it follows perfectly.

adr0ck

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If I have to explain this, I will super impose, to prove you completely wrong in your timelines.

superimposing the graph would be good

can you do this

i would be interested in seeing it

StevieJ

adr0ck wrote: »

superimposing the graph would be good

can you do this

i would be interested in seeing it

Yes, I asked him to do this for previous house prices crashes, to prove his point about the graph, he didn't seem too keen

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

Please do I did it visualy bu please do, maintain the scale please.

Jeez.

Ok, your line is the sicky colour one. As you and stevie were saying it would be about 2020. I didnt even bother with 2030 as frankly, I ran out of length

I think you will find, that roughly plotting the chart onto the second graph, we end up at around 2012-13.

Infact, on looking again, I have even been generous with the falls in plotting the graph.

Your bull trap you talked about lasting well into 2020 or something, would make the chart a completely different shape.



I know, you are going to say thats all wrong too. I'm just roughly, I DO state roughly, following the chart.

Your 2030 stuff is completely insane and a complete diversion from anything. I don't even know where you have got it from.



As for superimposing the grpah, yes, I could if I could really be bothered, which I cannot as it would take longer than 5 mins, and I cannot in all honesty, be bothered. The above simple "vague" drawing I did shows it aint gonna reach 2020-30.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Jeez.

Ok, your line is the sicky colour one. As you and stevie were saying it would be about 2020. I didnt even bother with 2030 as frankly, I ran out of length

I think you will find, that roughly plotting the chart onto the second graph, we end up at around 2012-13.

Your bull trap you talked about lasting well into 2020 or something, would make the chart a completely different shape.



I know, you are going to say thats all wrong too. I'm just roughly, I DO state roughly, following the chart.

:rotfl:

Graham the bear trap don't fit for a start also. why is 1 year now longer?


PS london house prices below £25K bty 2012.:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:(sorry I had to)

I tell you what Graham you have got some ball but you seriously need to start thinking for yourself than beliving tripe then making your self look stupid.

Graham_Devon

On year isn't longer? How do you make it longer?

My god, you will argue ANYTHING.

You haved just argued about the 2020 thing, now, when proved wrong, you are saying the bear trap dont fit.

Good lord, I have no idea what else to say to you.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

On year isn't longer? How do you make it longer?

My god, you will argue ANYTHING.

You haved just argued about the 2020 thing, now, when proved wrong, you are saying the bear trap dont fit.

Good lord, I have no idea what else to say to you.

I thanked you as you seem to belive it good luck:) I am going to mew my house so I can purchase three houses in london in three years time:)

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

I thanked you as you seem to belive it good luck:) I am going to mew my house so I can purchase three houses in london in three years time:)

Believe what?

Believe that you were talking out of your rear about 2020 and 2030?

Yes, I believe that. I believe you and stevie now, after saying things about the bull trap lasting that long, seriously have no idea what your even blathering about as you have got yourselves so confused by trying to make the graph wrong in so many of your ideological ways.

You have not yet ONCE proven what you are talking about.

Please....return the favour and plot your own graph with your talk about timelines etc, plot it into 2030, and lets see how nice it looks and how relevant to this discussion about the first chart it is.

baileysbattlebus

Really2 wrote: »

Graham you admit that the boom started 1973 and bottom will be around 2030 ish.
Also that the bottom will be around £50-75K for the average London house

I will commend you as you truly believe the graph is right and it is the only way it will fit.

I have always said it is balls, you will never change my mind you can only confirm your own belief. Why wont you commit your self to your own belief it is right?

The UK housing chart shows that there have been 3 bubbles since the 1970's - a fact Graham seems to have missed.

You can see the tail end of the 1970's bubble - there was a blip in the early 1980's then we had the bubble of the late 1980's and then the one now.

I think if someone did the work it would show that each of the bubbles followed roughly the same shape. With each bubble larger than the previous bubble and the collapse of each bubble more protracted than the previous bubble.

The housing market - along with everything else seems to be cyclical.

So, for Graham, no the UK housing chart is not one bubble since the early 1970's - it is 3

I wish I had posted each housing bubble separately.

I think you guys are just winding him up!!