Halifax +2.6 % MoM

StevieJ

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

totally agree w this. too many of the potential future owners over the next few years will be finding this out imo. owner occupier stats rise and fall over the years - but generally have risen, percentage wise, over the last century. not sure they can really go any higher. my feeling is we will see them reduce

Who takes up the slack, BTL,Council,Mutual funds?

Really2

Well I think my chicken size graph was far closer

the_ash_and_the_oak

StevieJ wrote: »

Who takes up the slack, BTL,Council,Mutual funds?

well mainly I think we'll just see lower transaction levels. esp with interest rates remaining comparatively low and boe/govt policy directed towards keeping people in their homes.

This theoretically should push rents up (which could make btl more attractive again - for yield rather than capital gain) but tbh I'M feeling there are too many flats in the UK and not really sure if that would make that a good bet)

Graham_Devon

Dan: wrote: »

Drawing a graph is easy. Justifying it is a little more tricky.

Very tricky when the people calling for it to be justified can't even tell you how you should justify it.

Dan:_4

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Very tricky when the people calling for it to be justified can't even tell you how you should justify it.

It is up to the author to justify it.

StevieJ

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Very tricky when the people calling for it to be justified can't even tell you how you should justify it.

I have told you exactly, you superimpose it on previous house crashes, to show the pattern you want to prove, presumably previous crashes have followed the same pattern or you wouldn't be using it as a predictive tool this time, would you

lostinrates

To add to the ''only £100k'' out of budget, I saw something this mornig that is only £200k out of next years budget. Two houses though: I've been trying to work out if we could swing it but even with my confidence in our borrwoing power don't think I can swing £200k over our massive borroing requirement for maximum budgt next year.

IveSeenTheLight

baileysbattlebus wrote: »

charts for our housing market - 1 from 1973 and one from 1975- I'm not suggesting that houses will go back to that level for a minute - but the charts are eerily similar in shape. Infact I wouldn't predict anything, this bubble probably started around 1999/2000-

the top graph is for one cycle.
The next two you choose is for multiple cycles.
Just wondering if you have an overlay for one cycle.

Also interesting in the last graph you post, it's showing house prices are at their long term growth i.e. the top graphs mean

mbga9pgf

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

the top graph is for one cycle.
The next two you choose is for multiple cycles.
Just wondering if you have an overlay for one cycle.

Also interesting in the last graph you post, it's showing house prices are at their long term growth i.e. the top graphs mean

Look how far it fell below mean in the 90s crash...

we still have Civil service redundancies
Massive tax hikes
Biflation

to come.

Also bear in mind the abnormal growth rate seriously affects the mean price. If we are going to return to normality, prices have a way down to go yet.

IveSeenTheLight

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Look how far it fell below mean in the 90s crash...

we still have Civil service redundancies
Massive tax hikes
Biflation

to come.

Also bear in mind the abnormal growth rate seriously affects the mean price. If we are going to return to normality, prices have a way down to go yet.

I would not argue that the potential is to overshoot and go under the long term trend as seen in previous hous price crashes.

The more it does though, the more likely the yo-yo effect will see it shooting upwards again

Better to try and get a long term stability and that would mean not such a wild swing above and below the trend line