Halifax +2.6 % MoM

IveSeenTheLight

baileysbattlebus wrote: »

Here is the chart applied to Brent crude with a time line and a value -

Very interesting.
Do you have a similar one fore any of the house price cycles?

mr.broderick

ad44downey wrote: »

Beware the bulltrap.

Don't get taken for a mug.

It's too late. The crash is over. You've missed the bottom downey. I can't think of anything worse than missing out on the nice decade then going on to miss the bottom. Crazy.

mr.broderick

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Not unless you mean "more little falls, but with little rises as well". We're going to see small rises as the market pauses for breath and then larger falls when realism sets back in. The graphs will look like the steps down to the (bargain) basement.

I'm expecting 90% drops before we hit bottom.






(joking! - probably upto 40% drops from peak)

No, i do not see another 20% drop from here, sorry.

Cannon_Fodder

StevieJ wrote: »

Apologies, I keep hearing on here that they had trebled

[IMG]http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/houseprices/housepriceindex/report/default.asp?g=1&gt=1&a=London&s=01 April 2009&e=&t=1[/IMG]

from a base of 100 to 382.6...call London quadrupled shall we...?

http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/houseprices/housepriceindex/report/default.asp?step=4&locationType=0&area=London&reporttype=1&datetype=2&showmonth=4&image2.x=23&image2.y=11

or

http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/houseprices/housepriceindex/report/default.asp?step=4&locationType=0&area=E%26W-ALL&reporttype=1&datetype=3&compare1=04%2F1996&compare2=04%2F2008&image2.x=29&image2.y=10

tripled countrywide...£60k to £182k...

baileysbattlebus

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Very interesting.
Do you have a similar one fore any of the house price cycles?

charts for our housing market - 1 from 1973 and one from 1975- I'm not suggesting that houses will go back to that level for a minute - but the charts are eerily similar in shape. Infact I wouldn't predict anything, this bubble probably started around 1999/2000-

mewbie_2

Good job our earnings have gone up four times in the last ten years. I jest of course. Lucky to get a pay rise at all.

That's one of the things that leads me to suspect all this HPI has been a speculative bubble. Hmm. Could be onto something.

Another thought. Is it conceivable that something that rockets in price can also plummet? Is it really that simple?

ad9898_3

My view is the entire HPI bubble from 2001 will be unwound, it won't happen overnight, it won't happen in a sraight line down either. The events of this week are typical in the cycle, the only surprise is it's taken so long, the bull trap we are currently seeing in some areas, is a normal part of this cycle, it may last a while until QE stops, but when it does the next leg down will begin. The facts will overcome the spin....... eventually.

baileysbattlebus

Bubbles - you might find this intersting - it covers the last 3 bubbles in the US - in technology, housing and commodities. Although it's applicable to the US it's still interesting.
And those charts still follow roughly the same, though not exactly, the same path.

When looking at bubbles, most associate them with housing, which is obviously accurate since it was likely the largest financial mania in history. Still, the housing bubble must be placed into a wider perspective; it was triggered by the unfolding of a previous bubble and the housing bubble also triggered another bubble. Thus, the last decade has seen the unfolding of three major bubbles back to back (see figure below). The tech / stock bubble that peaked in 2000, the housing bubble that peaked in 2005 and the commodities / trade bubble that peaked in 2008.

Click here to download a PDF version of this figure (distribution permitted).

<LI dir=ltr>The

tech bubble (using NASDAQ computers - ^IXK - as an index) can be seen as unrealistic expectations (at least on the short term) about the economic potential of the information technologies sector, a mania which was also accommodated by lax credit. However, its bust did not have a significant impact on consumption since only a relatively small segment of the population participated. However, it was concomitant (or maybe a triggering factor) to a recession that began in 2000. It is the consequences of this bust on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve that had long lasting impacts. By lowering interest rates to 1% it sowed the seeds of the housing bubble.
<LI dir=ltr>The housing bubble (using the residential home builder Toll Brothers - TOL - as in index) was the most damaging of them all because a very large segment of the population participated by borrowing money to purchase houses at inflated prices or by extracting equity from inflated assets to consume. Such a mania was made possible by lax credit, the securitization of debt as well as the obfuscation of risk by a variety of derivatives. The housing bust triggered a massive wave of defaults in the financial sector, but this was delayed a couple of years by mortgage rate resets. While the stock market value of activities closely related the housing adjusted quickly to lower future expectations (as exemplified by TOL), it took more time for the real estate market and the general population to realize that the boom was over and default on their liabilities accordingly. These defaults created a massive wave of cross-defaulting in the over-leveraged financial sector and precipitated a global recession.
[*]The commodities bubble (using the Baltic Dry Index - BDI) had several well publicized components, namely the price of oil that exploded from $35 per barrel to $140 in less than 3 years. The commodities bubble was a global phenomenon since it was related to commodities like food and energy which impact almost all markets. What is less known is that the debt fuelled consumption associated with the housing bubble resulted in a surge in international trade. Major actors involved in international trade and production, from factories in China to maritime shipping companies, saw this growth as enduring and consequently invested in additional capabilities. Once it became clear that the debt derived surge was artificially induced, the commodities sector collapsed, followed by international trade, particularly for export-oriented economies (China, South Korea, Taiwan, etc.).
Each bubble triggered conditions favoring the emergence of the next one and its associated misallocations and mal-investments. The compounding effect of the misallocations of the three bubbles had sharp damaging effects on every sector of the economy, from the balance sheet of financial companies, the net worth of consumers to the assets of maritime shipping companies. What is striking looking at these bubbles is their similar boom and bust structures with a double peak followed by a sharp collapse, which can be figuratively referred as a "Wiley E. Coyote" moment. Then, there are a few "dead cat bounces" with values eventually getting back to their pre-bubble valuations. Interestingly, evidence suggests that a bubble peaks when an index (or an asset) is at 5 times its pre-bubble value. I think that at this point that most who participated in these bubbles now wish that they never took place.
What is despairing is that the lessons of three major bubbles taking place in less than a decade seem not the have been learned by policymakers. Many do no even want to acknowledge that monetary policy was at the root of the problem. The question remains about what is left to inflate?

Graham_Devon

baileysbattlebus wrote: »

charts for our housing market - 1 from 1973 and one from 1975- I'm not suggesting that houses will go back to that level for a minute - but the charts are eerily similar in shape. Infact I wouldn't predict anything, this bubble probably started around 1999/2000-

Would like to see anyone deny the second graph

Chucky, Really ,Iveseenthelight etc..... where are you

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Would like to see anyone deny the second graph

Chucky, Really ,Iveseenthelight etc..... where are you

there you go Graham - all we needed was a date.
now that it's there i see what you are saying - i never disagreed with you by the way just queried the date and the scale of the graph.