Halifax +2.6 % MoM

Really2

mewbie wrote: »

The interesting point is that the bulls will grab at any small fact in order to subvert or ignore the true picture. Do any of the bulls actually accept that housing has been a BUBBLE? Or do you honestly think that we will have a little drop, and then back to your perception of normality (being sky high prices supported by Insidetrack, etc. pumping an artificial pyramid... etc.. etc...)?

I accept it as been a bubble but you can not attach the grieving process to it and state we are following it exactly.

The graph, grieving stuff is a load of B0ll0X market forces are the only thing which shapes it, tated this yesterday.
But it seems the bears want to try and discredit what happened in the figures this month by brining up stuff and presenting as the truth without supporting it

mewbie_2

adr0ck wrote: »

but according to the Nationwide chart we have undershot (just very slightly)

the graph only shows undershooting at the very end (not in bull trap phase)

so the question is which is right?

I can answer this. The magical trend line, clung to by the bulls, and accepted by many others, shows a trend that is pulled upwards by the bonkers prices of the last few years. When the picture is reviewed in a few more years after prices have fallen further, and for a period of time, the trend line will move downwards.

It is very misleading unless you have the brain of a planet, such as myself.

StevieJ

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Clever, aint you. Would kind of fall in line as to why I didn't list any bull traps after 1992.

!!!!!! does that mean?

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The graph / chart / picture is not adjusted for a timeframe, let alone inflation.

It really is just an illustration. Easier to call it a graph as it looks like one. People are trying far to hard to attach a load of rules to it, which really the graph / chart / picture / illustration is not, and was not intended to be adjusted for.
.

Very true

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Can see the truth about how were following it and how far we have to fall is somewhat upsetting you.

Sorry who is attaching truth to it?

Graham_Devon

adr0ck wrote: »

but according to the Nationwide chart we have undershot (just very slightly)

the graph only shows undershooting at the very end (not in bull trap phase)

so the question is which is right?

The nationwide is just one measure of house prices. It's used conviniently dependant on what people want to prove.

So I wouldn't rely just on the nationwide, would be my first suggestion, and it's a suggestion of everyone here depending on what they are trying to prve at the time!

As to which is right. At the moment, we cannot tell. We have not finished this bust cycle. Only when it has finished will we be able to take stock. Some may say it's now finished, which is fine, but thats the reason others fall back on the illustration....and why the illustration is posted on page 3

What I'm being told is that the graph is wrong, by several bullish posters. I just want to know WHY it's wrong, but no one can tell me, only that it is wrong, unless I prove it's right, which is totally impossible for me to do, they know that too, which is why they keep prodding me in that direction

Really2

StevieJ wrote: »

!!!!!! does that mean?

it did not fit so it don't count.:D

You have to love it really. I am going to draw a graph to show the bank manger i have paid my mortgage off.

He can't argue if I draw a nice graph even if it is about 13 years off, If i don't put dates on there he as to accept it as true:)

StevieJ

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The nationwide is just one measure of house prices. It's used conviniently dependant on what people want to prove.

3

Hey Graham that reminds me, grateful if you could update your signature

adr0ck

mewbie wrote: »

I can answer this. The magical trend line, clung to by the bulls, and accepted by many others, shows a trend that is pulled upwards by the bonkers prices of the last few years. When the picture is reviewed in a few more years after prices have fallen further, and for a period of time, the trend line will move downwards.

It is very misleading unless you have the brain of a planet, such as myself.

the mean line in the praise be to god graph also shows an upward trend though

Really2

mewbie wrote: »

I can answer this. The magical trend line, clung to by the bulls, and accepted by many others, shows a trend that is pulled upwards by the bonkers prices of the last few years. When the picture is reviewed in a few more years after prices have fallen further, and for a period of time, the trend line will move downwards.

It is very misleading unless you have the brain of a planet, such as myself.

So you would agree the trend line needs to be nearer if not level with "bull trap" for it to be like this crash?

Graham_Devon

StevieJ wrote: »

Hey Graham that reminds me, grateful if you could update your signature

Yer, no probs. I have been trying to distant myself from the immature arguments recently, hence my post the other day explaining my bearish views etc.

So will remove it completely, as I admit, it's a bit immature, but was a bit of fun