£ strongest major currency in the world in 2009

gozomark

DiggerUK wrote: »

Gozomark,
Still can't call sterling as strongest currency.

which is why I said

£ strongest major currency in the world in 2009

and not

£ strongest major currency in the world

nrsql

Most of that is bounce back.
could just mean that that sterling was the poorest performing against real value up to the end of last year.

gozomark

nrsql wrote: »

.
could just mean that that sterling was the poorest performing against real value up to the end of last year.

correct - as I say, I believe 1.30 is fair value - panic-ers sold it down way below fair value - its now bouncing back. Its gone up a lot this year because it went down too much last year. I never said £ was fundamentally the strongest currency, merely that, as a matter of fact, its the strongest major currency this year. Whatever the explanation is, it remains true.

nrsql

>> I believe 1.30 is fair value
Might be against the dollar but I expect falls against other currencies.

Question is is "what is going to be stronger".
I went for AU$ and gold a while ago - but not in a big way as I'm not very brave.

gozomark

my 1.30 is v the €

inspector_monkfish

its taken a bit of a tumble today, since the USD comments this morning about USD as having "no alternative for a main reserve currency", from Asia markets.

inevitable profit taking i guess after recent surges

currently trading at 1.6385, down from this morning's high of 1.6660

DiggerUK

gozomark wrote: »

my 1.30 is v the €

Quickie, what do you see as a fair exchange to the $US

inspector_monkfish

14:57 03Jun09 GBP/USD: Weighed Down by Equity Weakness & UK Political Turmoil

[13:57 GBP/USD: Weighed Down by Equity Weakness & UK Political Turmoil] London,
June 3.

Cable has fallen to a two-day low of 1.6382 as long GBP positions are exited on the back of global equity price losses (the Dow is currently down 89
points) and UK political turmoil. Rebel Labour MPs claim that PM Gordon Brown could be forced from office as early as next Tuesday, and that a new PM could be in Downing Street by the first week of July (Guardian website). Sterling scaled a
seven-month peak of 1.6664 during the European morning.

May"s US ISM non-manufacturing index will be disclosed imminently, alongside
US April factory orders. The non-mfg index is forecast to rise to 45.0, from 43.7
in April. Factory orders are forecast up 0.9%, to follow a 0.9% drop in March.

Reaper

I couldn't resist looking back to see what the old threads were. Picking a few non-gold ones almost at random:

The economics student (we were a bit mean to him. Hope you all feel guilty now)

One of eeja's many "we're all doomed" threads where Purch correctly pointed out Sterling was undervalued

And of course I couldn't resist Jim Rogers: "Sterling is finished"

I better stop there before somebody digs up one of my old posts saying Icesave won't go bust!

strategicassets

Day to day movements mean very little and it's also a truism that by the time these issues are raised typically by the media most of any move is over albeit people then start asking questions about just how far it can go and will the £ be the strongest currency in 2009 ? ..LOL

All we have seen so far this year is easily explainable.
1.People misjudged how this credit crisis and recession would play out amongst the major trading zones and their currencies.The strength of Eurozone was overplayed and the weakness of the UK similarly overplayed.
2.Against the above there had been a huge flight to safety out of deleaveraging that artificially pushed up the strength of the uSD as can easily be seen in the USD$ (index).

This year the safehaven move has reversed as people once again decided to take on some extra risk. In addition ,no longer satisfied with being scared of deflation the market decided to transfer it's worries to inflation and this also saw a move away from paper generally into 'hard' assets and those currencies associated with them inparticular.

As to the £ @ 1.65ish it is now back to fair value against the USD ,but against the Euro I believe it will still try to go further back up into 1.20/25 area.

Basically the £ was grossly oversold 2008 and is now being bought back up to fair value. Expecting vastly more except against the Euro would not be fundamentally justified.