Mortgage Approvals up in April

TDS_2

Chucky, I don;t understand what you're saying above...

The graph shows a strong positive correlation between no. of mortgage approvals(?) and change in house prices. The trend line passes through the x-axis at about 80 - 90,000 approvals per month indicating that approvals below this number suggest a decrease in house prices.

We're currently at ~40,000, which doesn't even figure on the graph (too highly negative).

chucky

TDS wrote: »

Chucky, I don;t understand what you're saying above...

The graph shows a strong positive correlation between no. of mortgage approvals(?) and change in house prices. The trend line passes through the x-axis at about 80 - 90,000 approvals per month indicating that approvals below this number suggest a decrease in house prices.

We're currently at ~40,000, which doesn't even figure on the graph (too highly negative).

what i'm trying to say obviously not very well is that during the period 1990-1995 the number of approvals was irrelevant to HPI.

in a 'normal' market i'd agree with the direct correlation but Ad mentioned the period 1993 to 1996 which from the graph shows that between 1990-1995 even over 90,000 approvals a month there was no HPI.

ad44downey

Don't confuse chucky with facts and statistics please, it fuddles his brain.

He might have to copy and paste his favourite graph again if you do. :rotfl:

TDS_2

chucky wrote: »

what i'm trying to say obviously not very well is that during the period 1990-1995 the number of approvals was irrelevant to HPI.

in a 'normal' market i'd agree with the direct correlation but Ad mentioned the period 1993 to 1996 which from the graph shows that between 1990-1995 even over 90,000 approvals a month there was no HPI.

I disagree. The scatter (including points between 1990 - 1995) indicate a strong positive correlation between mortgage approvals and changes in house price. That a few points within the timeframe you mention don't sit on the trend line is neither here nor there. The same could be said about the other time frames listed.

chucky

TDS wrote: »

I disagree. The scatter (including points between 1990 - 1995) indicate a strong positive correlation between mortgage approvals and changes in house price. That a few points within the timeframe you mention don't sit on the trend line is neither here nor there. The same could be said about the other time frames listed.

i have to disagree with the 1990-1995 period because there are scatter points during the period 1996-2005 with the same level of mortgage approvals and less than the trend line but HPI was positive not negative.

however, there are none prior to 1990 less than the trend line - there is a direct correllation here.

going back to the current mortgage approvals they are extremely low and would have no impact unless there are a large number of cash purchases.

ad9898_3

The funding gap is just way to big too bridge, we will not see 80,000+ approvals again until something gives, what will give is prices, the money just simply isn't there for any other outcome.

What some buyers don't seem to get is when they are taking out a mortgage with a bank at the moment, QE money is being used, so not only are they paying interest on the loan from the bank, they will be paying back the money again when the government starts to take a higher percentage of their wages in tax to payback what they have borrowed from the markets to give to the banks. Buyers are being skinned from both ends, and I doubt whether many have a clue as to what is happening.

You really would have to be bonkers to buy a house now unless it's a cash buy.

JonnyBravo

TDS wrote: »

I disagree. The scatter (including points between 1990 - 1995) indicate a strong positive correlation between mortgage approvals and changes in house price. That a few points within the timeframe you mention don't sit on the trend line is neither here nor there. The same could be said about the other time frames listed.

I agree with your points about a very strong correlation. Perhaps chucky doesn't use those graphs too often but it does show a clear trend and by using that graph you have to accept all of its parts.

Going forward however we might need a new graph. One showing just the amount of loans used for home purchases. For as long as the interest rate remains where it is, or close to where it is, the re-mortgage section of the statistics won't return in any meaningful numbers.
Have their been other periods when this has happened? I confess I don't know.

Can anyone graph the numbers of loans going back years of mortgages just used for purchase. ie excluding equity release and re-mortgage.

Now I'll bet we're no-where near the number required for price stabilisation yet, but probably nearer to it than we will be using a data set which (at the moment) is not as valid as it once was.

ad9898 wrote: »

What some buyers don't seem to get is when they are taking out a mortgage with a bank at the moment, QE money is being used, so not only are they paying interest on the loan from the bank, they will be paying back the money again when the government starts to take a higher percentage of their wages in tax to payback what they have borrowed from the markets to give to the banks. Buyers are being skinned from both ends, and I doubt whether many have a clue as to what is happening.

No what you mean is, anyone, regardless of whether you are a buyer a renter or a washerwoman living in a shoe, you will be paying more when taxes go up to pay it all back.
That's right ad, you and your sensible thinking will be paying for people buying now!

ad9898_3

JonnyBravo wrote: »

No what you mean is, anyone, regardless of whether you are a buyer a renter or a washerwoman living in a shoe, you will be paying more when taxes go up to pay it all back.
That's right ad, you and your sensible thinking will be paying for people buying now!

Of course you are correct, although I still have the option of going to Oz when my investments come in, I guess only time will tell where I eventually lay my hat.

mewbie_2

chucky wrote: »

and 100,000+ approvals means 10% HPI per year - is that what you want?

you can't have it both ways my little chocolate drop

Surprisingly patronising from someone whose inability to form a coherent thought shines out like a beacon through your thousands of identical posts.

Why don't you spend some time learning basic literacy instead of filling up every thread with inconsequential pedantries?

chucky

mewbie wrote: »

Surprisingly patronising from someone whose inability to form a coherent thought shines out like a beacon through your thousands of identical posts.

Why don't you spend some time learning basic literacy instead of filling up every thread with inconsequential pedantries?

come on stop following me around the forum - be a good doggie

what's your view apart from trying to spoil every thread?