***House prices up 1.2% in May***

Thrugelmir

Out of interest just had a browse on Rightmove at my local area. Number of properties for sale is the lowest I can recall. Maybe the lack of quality houses is driving prices up for those that are selling. Disguising the wider falling market.

Cannon_Fodder

it looks like one helluva rollercoaster...

IveSeenTheLight

Snooze wrote: »

second now you're about to have StevieJ, chucky, ISTL and Dan: all jump on you in quick succession over that very bearish comment, right

Please don't put words in other people mouths.
I don't jumps on anyone who posts bearish comments.
I do question things as people do in debates, expecially when they are not backed up with facts.
When I do question, I try to attach facts to back up my point of view.

I've never ever dissagreed with the statement that month on month can be noise, especially with a low amount of sales.
I'm actually in agreement with generalis post, so your attempt to label me is in fact very wrong

It would be good to discuss things about the topic, rather than degenerate into a he's going to say this, she's going to say that, bear and bulls etc etc etc

Getting back to topic, with there being a turn in confidence within businesses and clear signs of a potential turning point in this economic climate, it is interesting to see what appears to be a stabalisation of house prices.
As we are discussing the Nationwide price and index, it's interesting to see the following: -

Nationwide House Price December £153,048
Nationwide House Price May = £154,016
This represents a 0.6% increase in the last 5 months

Nationwide House Price Index December = 308.9
Nationwide House Price Index May = 304.6
This indicates a 0.3% decrease in the seasonally adjusted index

For me, this is an indicator that prices have / are at a plateu state.

Will prices drop further? Possibly, some say probably and maybe this plateau is temporary "spring bounce". We will know in time

Is this the bottom? Possibly, too early to tell for sure

Is this the start of a rise? With 3 consecutive months of price rises according to Nationwide, possibly. Historically however, the answer would be that this could be temporary

Time will tell and we need a few more months of data to better analyse if this is a turning point

Dan:_4

Yakubu22 wrote: »

Exactly right...who cares if one lender says prices are up 1% for the 2 weeks of the month they monitor? The true picture is that we are in a major depression with a YOY fall of something much bigger

This forum never fails to crack me up, every time.

When [any] lender releases a report showing a fall in prices it widely accepted without questions, however when the same lenders show a rise it gets written off as rubbish and not to be taken seriously.

I would bet that, by now, there are a few nervous people around who enjoyed banging on about 50,60,70% drops at the start of the year.

ruggedtoast

A lot of ths stuff that has suddenly shifted near me is a big council and ex LA authority area made primarily of British Iron and Steel Federation terraces. Most of these have been on the market for months or up to a year at around £200k.

Its not a great indicator for affordability that what are, essentially glorified scout huts, that should realistically be for people on quite low incomes, are suddenly all shifting for around 7 times the average salary.

Prices can dither around but there is a big shortage of affordable property for families. I can see this becoming a significant social problem as time runs on and more people are made unemployed.

Nu-Lab as usual appears unprepared.

chucky

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

it looks like one helluva rollercoaster...

why do we only see this graph going down from peak - end of 2007?

i'm waiting for some clever clogs to come along and show it from Feb 2009 onwards - the reaction from the HPCers would be hilarious!!

wymondham

.... looks like many people are desperately looking for the 'upturn'. I'd be very surprised if this 'blip' continues..

Yakubu22

Dan: wrote: »

This forum never fails to crack me up, every time.

When [any] lender releases a report showing a fall in prices it widely accepted without questions, however when the same lenders show a rise it gets written off as rubbish and not to be taken seriously.

I would bet that, by now, there are a few nervous people around who enjoyed banging on about 50,60,70% drops at the start of the year.

This forum never fails to crack me up with people clinging onto glimmers of hope. We are in a major recession, with the worst arguably still to come. How on earth can house prices fight against such forces and continue to increase?

ray123

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The "credit" has been borrowed and now the long process of paying it back has commenced.

Alternatively, the credit that has been borrowed will not be paid back in the form of bankruptcy, credit card fraud, insovency...

Two people I know, who were working in the UK, subsequently left with credit cards maxed out, money owed on student loans, goods purchased on credit, a couple of mobile contracts and two broadband contracts (with free laptop).

I wish it was as simple as borrow and re-pay. Perhaps, we should brinng in some UAE laws 're: defaulting on debt' : Dubai's sharia laws mean those unable to pay their debts can be imprisoned, just as debtors were imprisoned in England in Victorian times.

Add this to the economic slump, rising unemployment, etc, I cant really see house prices rising antime soon.

Dan:_4

Yakubu22 wrote: »

This forum never fails to crack me up with people clinging onto glimmers of hope. We are in a major recession, with the worst arguably still to come. How on earth can house prices fight against such forces and continue to increase?

Yeah okay mate, tell me - what is your personal prediction for house prices over the next 12 months