***House prices up 1.2% in May***

mewbie_2

So that's it then? We didn't even crash below trend, just returned to trend and now rising once again. I was very wrong, and apologise to anyone I may have misled about it being a bubble and crash and all that silly nonsense. Clearly Brown has saved the economy, the recession is over, and as we all know "they're not building any more land".

I suppose it's good news, and with BTL poised to make a come back I urge the bulls to follow their instincts based on this solid gold evidence from the Nationwide.

Meanwhile, us bears had better beat a hasty retreat to the woods and empty our bowels.

chucky

mewbie wrote: »

So that's it then? We didn't even crash below trend, just returned to trend and now rising once again. I was very wrong, and apologise to anyone I may have misled about it being a bubble and crash and all that silly nonsense. Clearly Brown has saved the economy, the recession is over, and as we all know "they're not building any more land".

I suppose it's good news, and with BTL poised to make a come back I urge the bulls to follow their instincts based on this solid gold evidence from the Nationwide.

Meanwhile, us bears had better beat a hasty retreat to the woods and empty our bowels.

Forex were expecting a -0.9% and are predicting -1.5% for the Halifax figures next week - you can always hope for next week

you have two choices now either buy soonish or join this site www.pricedout.org i'm joking of course...

StevieJ

mewbie wrote: »

So that's it then? We didn't even crash below trend, just returned to trend and now rising once again. I was very wrong, and apologise to anyone I may have misled about it being a bubble and crash and all that silly nonsense. Clearly Brown has saved the economy, the recession is over, and as we all know "they're not building any more land".

I suppose it's good news, and with BTL poised to make a come back I urge the bulls to follow their instincts based on this solid gold evidence from the Nationwide.

Meanwhile, us bears had better beat a hasty retreat to the woods and empty our bowels.

Be careful mewbie,remember that old saying ' Many a true word spoke in jest'

IveSeenTheLight

mewbie wrote: »

So that's it then? We didn't even crash below trend, just returned to trend and now rising once again. I was very wrong, and apologise to anyone I may have misled about it being a bubble and crash and all that silly nonsense. Clearly Brown has saved the economy, the recession is over, and as we all know "they're not building any more land".

I suppose it's good news, and with BTL poised to make a come back I urge the bulls to follow their instincts based on this solid gold evidence from the Nationwide.

Meanwhile, us bears had better beat a hasty retreat to the woods and empty our bowels.

Settle petal

Nobody is saying for certain that the housing market has turned.
There are indicators out there that there is a bit of stagnation.
It could turn and go further down, it could stagnate for a bit longer or it could start to rise if confidence returns.

As you rightly pointed out though, house prices are now at the long term trend and maybe, just maybe the wider public are aware of this and are happy to buy at that prices.

The huge uncertainty is still around, because it is early days of the change in downward trend along with the lack of properties being added to the market, low sales volumes and uncertainty on credit being available.

mp2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

It should be remembered that the 3 month on 3 month figure is the seasonally adjusted index.
Nominally, it would have shown positive.
December = £153,048
January = £150,501
February = £147,746
3 month Average = £150,431

March = £150,946
April = £151,861
May = £154,016
3 month Average = £152,274

So nominally, 3 month on 3 month an increase of only 1.2%

Some interesting graphs taken from http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/may_2009.pdf

erm, it might be worth pointing out the the 2 top graphs dont match. the graph on the top right shows "real terms" house prices i.e how much they were worth in todays figures.

e.g average house prices in 1980 were actually £22,000 in nominal terms.

as a result that graph of the top right has been skewed by the boom itself and is even using 2008 house prices as the base for the expon. real house prices!!!

2008 is not a base year!

what the graph on the top right is telling you is that a house even at the top of the boom in 1989 is actually worth £110,000 in todays (or 2008's) money, nominal prices in 1989 were actually £59,000. so todays house prices at £140,000 is still way over priced compared to the height of the boom in 1989!!

you need to intepret graphs to find the true meaning....

in real terms, average house prices should be closer to £90,000 in todays money, not £140,000, if you took an average for real house price "value". i.e how much it should be worth...

StevieJ

I think the bulls should 'make hay while the sun shines', as the saying goes

System

chucky wrote: »

why do we only see this graph going down from peak - end of 2007?

i'm waiting for some clever clogs to come along and show it from Feb 2009 onwards - the reaction from the HPCers would be hilarious!!

Hey guise! Check out house prices since Feb!!one

Thrugelmir

Dan: wrote: »

Yes, we are in a mojor recession, but if you watch the news on a daily basis, you would be aware that the wrost is over. Sure, there will be more unemployment to come - this is always the last thing to recover as firms take advanage of the 'recession' status.

There has been 17 months of steep falls, do you really expect this to continue forever?

On what measure is the worst over? The recession will technically end when output and activity increases again. In the main this will be a result of restocking. The car manufacturing plants that have been on short time / closed over the past 6 months will make a significant difference alone.

Whilst some companies may take advantage of the recession to reduce staffing levels. If you've ever been involved in a major restructuring exercise. It can be very difficult to cut staffing levels whilst retaining necessary levels of expertise in a business to maintain production\sales and customer service.

robin_banks

The Recession isn't over, house prices never increase during a recession, all this is is a bit of volatility. Wallpaper.

princeofpounds

Because houses aren't something you buy every week. If I had 1,000,000 cans of beans stashed away and they doubled in price one month then I'd obviously be delighted.

A PUBLIC good, I said. If you had a million cans of beans then sure it might be great for you, but it would send half the world into starvation. This is the problem - you don't look further than your own asset/liability match and forget about society as a whole.