Are we in a boom ?

mbga9pgf

Well, I think the trend is about to be broken. If you are taking non-inflation adjusted that is. If you seriously think we will ever see the real-equivalent prices of 2007 in our lifetimes, I suggest you go and research the roots of the credit crunch.

adr0ck

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Well, I think the trend is about to be broken. If you are taking non-inflation adjusted that is. If you seriously think we will ever see the real-equivalent prices of 2007 in our lifetimes, I suggest you go and research the roots of the credit crunch.

I will see 2007 prices in my lifetime (not sure about you....i don't know how old you are )

mbga9pgf

Yeah, if you account for inflation. But if prices rise in line with wages, it hardly counts does it. I am 27.

adr0ck

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Yeah, if you account for inflation. But if prices rise in line with wages, it hardly counts does it. I am 27.

ask yourself this

what were average prices 25 years ago?
what was the population of the UK 25 years ago?
say we build an average of 100,000 new houses a year if were lucky and then add in the possible effects of global warming in 25 years time

mbga9pgf

Another graph to demonstrate. Before the 1997-2007 boom HPI typicaly remained constrained to inflation with one or two minor bumps. LOOK at the change in gradient that occured as a result of major credit expansion. Its pretty bloody obvious that policy change caused this, not supply/demand.



That graph goes back to 1969. See?



Breakaway from CPI over the long term = LOTS of pain NOW. We are paying for all our excesses of the past 10 years I am afraid.

Want to bother to tell me where the money is coming from to pay for these mortgages with higher IRs, massive outstanding debt as well as a tax bill from hell over the horizon?

adr0ck

mbga9pgf wrote: »

WHEN WILL STUPID PEOPLE GET IT INTO THEIR HEADS? WITHOUT RECORD SELF-DESTRUCTIVE LENDING, YOU CANT HAVE RECORD HOUSE PRICES?!?!?

Its pretty f*cking simple really.

jeez grow up and calm down

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Tell me this, why if supply and demand is such the panacea you make it out to be, are current house prices falling despite record low rates, at a time where supply of property has been constrained massively and there are still the same numbers of people living in the country? It is a myth that some idiot sold to you; without the massive credit expansion, that line above wouldnt, couldnt of diverged from normal price rises!

prices are falling at the moment because there is nobody lending any money at the moment

i do not believe (like you do) that in 25 years time no one will still be lending

System

adr0ck wrote: »

jeez grow up and calm down

:rotfl:That was basically a "WHAA WHAA I'M PRICED OUT OF THE MARKET" :rotfl:

mbga9pgf

adr0ck wrote: »

jeez grow up and calm down




prices are falling at the moment because there is nobody lending any money at the moment

i do not believe (like you do) that in 25 years time no one will still be lending

Oh, they will be lending, they are lending today. but they just wont be lending themselves to destruction. 10% minimum deposit has become the norm, as with restrictive multiples. If you think in 25 years you will be able to go out, borrow 125% of your home value, at 5X salary, with nothing down, you have a lot to learn.

You need to learn the difference between real prices and non-adjusted prices ...

mbga9pgf

Hey Joe, I am not the one in negative equty dude. Dont lecture me about fiscal prudence. And I can assure you I am far from priced out, sitting on a 70K deposit.

adr0ck

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Hey Joe, I am not the one in negative equty dude. Dont lecture me about fiscal prudence. And I can assure you I am far from priced out, sitting on a 70K deposit.

you could do with a lecture on how to behave though