Are we in a boom ?

wolvoman

lostinrates wrote: »

Wage growth?
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1660199&highlight=wage

Apologies, I was looking at non-bonus income.

The actual total wage growth is -0.4% at the moment, according to the ONS.

System

wolvoman wrote: »

Apologies, I was looking at non-bonus income.

The actual total wage growth is -0.4% at the moment, according to the ONS.

Does wage growth only apply to those in employment, or does people losing altogether their jobs represent a large drop in wage growth?

MrDT

Dan: wrote: »

So you are hoping for rapid interest rates rises in order to increase repo's and cause house prices to fall significantly.......its one hell of a gamble my friend.

I don't think he's hoping for any such thing.

I think he was responding to your earlier post:

So, if your earn a decent wage and have 70K in the bank then what is stoping you from buying? Average prices have fallen around 20%, interest rates are at record lows and current mortgage products (esp with your deposit) are fantastic right now. Prices will not fall much further but mortgage rates are likley to rise, and could rise fast - this will end up costing you more by holidng off now.

Dan:_4

MrDT wrote: »

I don't think he's hoping for any such thing.

I think he was responding to your earlier post:

Correct. He did respond to my post - with this:

mbga9pgf wrote: »

.The theory goes though, if rates go up significantly, the resulting fall in prices will mean I take out even less of a mortgage and shave far more than 3 years off the total term. If mortgage rates rise rapidy, repos will spike through the roof and prices will have much further to fall.

JayScottGreenspan

Are we in a boom?

Halifax (seasonally adjusted)
Dec 2008 160,861
Jan 2009 164,126
Feb 2009 160,390
Mar 2009 157,320
Apr 2009 154,716

NW (seasonally adjusted)
Dec-08 154,458
Jan-09 152,502
Feb-09 149,620
Mar-09 150,937
Apr-09 150,402

Halifax (not seasonally adjusted)
Dec 2008 158,437
Jan 2009 159,818
Feb 2009 159,208
Mar 2009 157,066
Apr 2009 157,156

NW (not seasonally adjusted)
Dec-08 £153,048
Jan-09 £150,501
Feb-09 £147,746
Mar-09 £150,946
Apr-09 £151,861

Draw your own conclusions.

mbga9pgf

Dan: wrote: »

Correct. He did respond to my post - with this:

Dan, thats worst case. As I have said, show me a single recovery with a significant bounce back in the face of rising rates, massive increases in taxation and high unemployment, its just not going to happen.

Its pretty obvious isnt it that if prices level and rates stay as they are I am quids-in? The fact I think prices have another 10% to fall in a sustained sell-off is neither here nor there. That may not happen, but fact remains I am nailing the saving at the mo, meaning I am wiping years off my future mortgage.

I am hoping mortage rates never go anywhere near 10%, as if they do, its going to get pretty messy. Best to plan for worst case though in my view. The crucial word in my above statement was if.

Asfor the salary cut no, I have managed to hold my salary. Missus has had a slighty cut but TBH we are just both lucky that we have kept our jobs in the current climate and thank our lucky chickens for that!

inspector_monkfish

Anyone fancy a pint ?

mbga9pgf

As long as its not shandy!

wolvoman

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Does wage growth only apply to those in employment, or does people losing altogether their jobs represent a large drop in wage growth?

Very good question.

If the workforce available was 1 million with zero unemployment and the total wages was £20 billion then the average wage would be £20k.

Take the same workforce with 5% unemployment but the total wages paid is £19.5 billion.
Is the average wage now £20,526 (measured across those still in work) or £19,500 measured across all potential employees?

Which way do the ONS calculate it?

lostinrates

wolvoman wrote: »

Apologies, I was looking at non-bonus income.

The actual total wage growth is -0.4% at the moment, according to the ONS.

When I look at our incomings each year for records, I count the bonus as income. Not having it would be a sizable difference to us. Not life threatening, but sizable. It is, essentially, an extra month's income as minimum, so while its not a city busting million, its a decent, for example, mortage overpay, or in our case, contribution to savings/future planning. It was also part of how we calculated our income and expenditure affordabilty. Frankly, I think its all a silly system, but as it is the system, for now, it counts, for now.