Another 50% to fall off property - Robin Griffiths (Expert Economist)

penguine

whathavewedone wrote: »

Oh and to say that house prices trebled in a decade as though that happened nationwide is simply misleading.

I didn't claim or imply that this happened nationwide -- I was talking specifically about my own neighbourhood. However for anyone who thinks their area is immune to significant drops it might be illuminating to look at pre 2000 prices on a site like ourproperty.co.uk. If prices went up markedly after 2000 then there's no reason, in the face of the most severe recession since World War II, that they can't go back down again.

Dan:_4

penguine wrote: »

My purely subjective opinion is that the majority of people in the UK have some level of concern about losing their jobs. I personally know 3 people in the past year who've been made redundant. All are now back in work but on fixed term contracts. For every person who knows these 3 people, the reality of losing their own jobs is now a little bit closer to home.

You're right that not everyone is worried about this and many feel confident enough to go ahead and buy a property at the moment. But to state that "the majority are fine" without any facts or figures to back it up makes for a pretty flimsy argument.

You talk about facts or figures but don't produce any yourself to support your argument. :rolleyes:

So, you know 3 people who have been made redundent....out of how many??? (assuming you know more then 3 people)

ukcarper

penguine wrote: »

I didn't claim or imply that this happened nationwide -- I was talking specifically about my own neighbourhood. However for anyone who thinks their area is immune to significant drops it might be illuminating to look at pre 2000 prices on a site like ourproperty.co.uk. If prices went up markedly after 2000 then there's no reason, in the face of the most severe recession since World War II, that they can't go back down again.

[QUOTE=carolt_just_don't_get_why_people_think_that_hose_prices_can_triple_in_a_decade_(when_wages_go_up_a_tiny_fraction_of_that)_and_yet_think_that_prices_falling_50%_is_impossible![/QUOTE]

They haven't where I live not even double

penguine

Dan: wrote: »

You talk about facts or figures but don't produce any yourself to support your argument. :rolleyes:

I stated that my opinion was purely objective. You didn't say the same about yours, but presented it as fact.

kennyboy66_2

House prices went up 124% in 10 years to 2009 Q1, but income for 90% of the population also went up about 70% (not for the poorest 10% of the population) during that same period.

Dan:_4

penguine wrote: »

I stated that my opinion was purely objective. You didn't say the same about yours, but presented it as fact.

I said it was obvious.

You know 3 people who have lost their jobs, out of, what, 50?, 100? people? Would you therefore say that the majority of the people who know are okay about their jobs?

Ant_Lyons

This is my first post on the forum and am prepared to take any questions regarding this post.

For the record I am a property investor and also Managing Editor of the UK's biggest magazine for property investors.

The truth of property investing right now is that anybody who is looking to invest for a short term via capital appreciation is likely to be very disappointed. Very few industry experts expect to see significant further falls in property values but like so many things in life it depends - it depends what property you have, where it is and what the local demand is like.

Does this make property investing a bad idea - absolutely not. Lets say you have 50K in the bank what interest will you be realising right now on your savings? maybe 3% if you are very lucky.
I personally purchased a flat last month for £52,000 that is now being rented at £420 per month. This represents a yield of over 9.5%.

Do I think I could get the same return from a bank or even through stocks and shares - very unlikely.

Do I think my £50k flat will be worth £100k next year? No

Am I happy to have a tenant in place that pays off my mortgage debt over time giving me a reasonable cashflow in the interim- Yes

Do I believe that in 20 years time the flat may be worth more than I paid for it right now? Yes probably but if not it has given me a good return and through amortization I have paid off what I owe.

The truth behind property investment is that when the general public thinks inveting is a good idea you are probably going to get poor returns and pay far more for property.

Right now is an unbelievable time to invest if you can get the funds, buy the right property (high yield) and are buying for the long term. Recently James Caan and Richard Branson have both openely stated that they are buying property and I doubt many of us would doubt their financial acumen.

Novice investors look at short term capital growth whereas experienced investors buy and hold for the long term - our challenge is always to get somebody else to pay the mortgage.

p.s bit of a shameless plug but the magazine I edit is called Your Property Network Magazine - feel free to check it out.

Dithering_Dad

Did hose prices triple? No wonder Draper 30M garden hose reel sets are so expensive!!

I love these sorts of threads, someone announces that we're going to have 50/60/70% drops and everyone has the sort of ruck that you see in Western movies. I can see it now - carolt and julieq (in their can-can style clothes, with cleavage showing) are screaming and tearing at each others (big) hair and dresses with bright red faces and angry eyes, Dopester has just thrown a bottle at Dan:'s head, who ducks at the last minute causing the bottle to smash into the mirror above the bar (7 years bad luck for you there Dopester). Meanwhile Brit1234 and ad9898 have just grabbed StevieJ and slid him right across the wooden bar, smashing whiskey bottles with his head as they go. Oops, Dithering Dad has just been thrown through the window and lands in the horse trough!

lol, this might go on for a while, but by the time the dust settles we will still have 'only' have had 28% drops from peak.

carolt

ukcarper wrote: »

They haven't where I live not even double

You and Dan clearly live in unusual areas and must have felt rather short-changed by missing out on the great housing boom going on elsewhere.

Nationally, the Halifax/Nationwide figures show prices tripled in a decade.

In fact, where I live in the south east, prices went up by around 5 times or more :eek: - lots of specific properties I know went up by that multiple; my brother's house for example. Flats in a street I used to rent on went from c 60K to 300K in a decade.


But I quoted the 3 times figure not these examples of 5 times that I refer to, because I am aware they exceeded the national average figures.

Obviously, for them to be averages, there must have been people who had property that went up by less than this too.

And it may well be that those whose properties went up by less will see smaller falls than those who saw greater rises. Or it may not.

I stand by my assertion that average house prices triple in a decade. So could easily fall by 50% in another decade, or less.

penguine

Dan: wrote: »

I said it was obvious.

You know 3 people who have lost their jobs, out of, what, 50?, 100? people? Would you therefore say that the majority of the people who know are okay about their jobs?

As I said, I'm only talking from a purely subjective point of view. You're the one who thinks the majority of people in this country are fine about their jobs and not worried about being made redundant. You could be right, after all it's spring and a lot of people are probably feeling more optimistic than they were in the dark days of last autumn. However you could also be wrong, there might be a lot more people worried about losing their jobs than you realise. I don't know what percentage of the people I know are worried about losing their jobs, because I haven't done a survey of their opinions. However I also wouldn't claim that the majority are fine.