Another 50% to fall off property - Robin Griffiths (Expert Economist)

the_ash_and_the_oak

ad9898 wrote: »

How tired is this argument:rolleyes:, one look on Rightmove shows there is absolutely no pressure on housing stock whatsoever, in fact quite the opposite. the average sale in my area takes 260 days from the date it goes on with the estate agent, and most other areas seem to take a similar time to sell, some pressure that is.:rotfl:

agree w this - never really had a problem finding somewhere to live imo

dopester

The major newspapers always focus on the plight of the tragic FTBs being denied access to mortgages at affordable rates, and with big deposits ranging up to 40%.

Instead, sellers are really the ones at the mercy of the new conditions where mortgage credit is at much lower levels and much more difficult to get.

Hmm. Your boom-time had credit-markets supplying multi-billions which the banks could lend to buy houses at ever higher values.

I wonder what has to be the short-term and long-term impact on house values when banks having a lot less to lend out?

ad9898_3

It's nice to see Carol and dopester back, it's nice to get a bit of realism and perspective.

Dan:_4

carolt wrote: »

I just don't get why people think that hose prices can triple in a decade (when wages go up a tiny fraction of that) and yet think that prices falling 50% is impossible!

Say you bought a house for 100K that tripled to 300K in a decade; if it falls back to 150K, you're still making a good return.

If the one was possible, then the other is just as possible - and likely.

In the absence of massive wage inflation - which is in fact the opposite of what's happening now!, as wage deflation starts to kick in - there is nothing to support house prices at existing levels.

Sorry - to those who bought at 2007 levels. But wishing a ball to stay up in the air when you throw it up is not enough to prevent gravity naturally re-asserting itself.

Houses prices tripled in a decade? Well, mine didn't - not even double it was in 1999.

Dan:_4

ad9898 wrote: »

It's nice to see Carol and dopester back, it's nice to get a bit of realism and perspective.

They will probarly disappear again when the Halifax figures are released later this week.

ad9898_3

Dan: wrote: »

Houses prices tripled in a decade? Well, mine didn't - not even double it was in 1999.

Quite a few places did Dan, in my area prices have just over doubled from '97 to '07, however if the figures are scrutinsed in my area, more or less all the doubling took place in just 18 months between 2001-2003, so 50% falls are possible in a short space of time, given the correct conditions.

ad9898_3

Dan: wrote: »

They will probarly disappear again when the Halifax figures are released later this week.

Well I hope not, I fully expect a rise in the indexes at this time of the year, it's Spring, however, with the economic outlook prices will certainly be down from to today's figures by the end of the year.

Dan:_4

ad9898 wrote: »

Quite a few places did Dan, in my area prices have just over doubled from '97 to '07, however if the figures are scrutinsed in my area, more or less all the doubling took place in just 18 months between 2001-2003, so 50% falls are possible in a short space of time, given the correct conditions.

There may wll be 50% falls on some property types in certain areas, but I doubt we will ever see the magic "-50%" figure on any index.

ad9898_3

Dan: wrote: »

There may wll be 50% falls on some property types in certain areas, but I doubt we will ever see the magic "-50%" figure on any index.

I would be very surprised too TBH, but after the last couple of years, it's difficult to rule anything out, the issue I see at the minute is the ramping in the media over the few weeks has gone into overdrive, with virtually no substance to the claims, apart from a slight rise in mortgage approvals from historical lows, and 'that' 0.9% from the Nationwide.

Other than that, the mass media are just ignoring all the major economic fundamentals, it won't make them go away though, just because they are choosing the 'bury the head in the sand' tactic.

I still stand by what I have said a few times, let's see where we are in 6 months.

chucknorris

julieq wrote: »

Oh come off it. You can't extrapolate from price falls in Dubai what will happen here. Dubai is a premium branded desert, not a smallish country in a populous area with immense pressure on availability of housing stock. There's no reason apart from snob value or dutch tulip style "investment" to buy property there.

Yes but you are just using logic to try and win the arguement, that's not what you do on here, you are supposed to trawl the internet for some article by a 'half wit expert' and quote him/her rather than think for yourself.