Another 50% to fall off property - Robin Griffiths (Expert Economist)

brit1234

Hi
Just thought I would attempt to balance out all this baseless spin about a house price recovery on already highly overvalued property.

In the last two years I have listerned to Commodity watch Radio, which brings on a huge host of international independent economists to talk about economic cycles, opportunities and predictions. The most interesting ones have been the annual house price discussions which acuratly predicted the scale of the falls. Another housing special is due soon with about 4 independant economists and buisness insiders disscusing the issues and seeing through the spin. However till that program I heard this break down of future falls by the well respected econmist Robin Griffiths.

He states that house prices have another 50% to fall and that we are going through a tempoary bounce. He also talks about bubbles and states about them returning to pre bubble values, he predicts this for the housing market.

Have a listen at the end of the program, it lasts about a minute and is 27 mins.

http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/

Robin Griffiths, author with William Houston of Water: The Final Resource. How the Politics Of Water Will Affect The World, discusses cycles, technical analysis and some of the many issues raised in his excellent new book.


http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/

novazombie

ANOTHER 50% falls? I cant see it myself.

50% by the end of all this in a few years time is more likely.

Interesting though I didnt listen to all of it. "you always get back to what it was before the bubble"

Let us know when you hear that other one.

brit1234

novazombie wrote: »

ANOTHER 50% falls? I cant see it myself.

50% by the end of all this in a few years time is more likely.

Interesting though I didnt listen to all of it. "you always get back to what it was before the bubble"

Let us know when you hear that other one.

Will do. They always get the branch head of Lauriston estate agents and he always speaks out honestly about what is actually happening. Should be out in the next couple of weeks and be about 2 hours long with a good debate. Always a good listern if you want an honest view, however if you want meaningless spin and ramping there is always the Daily Express.:rotfl:

Dan:_4

You haven't posted for ages and then come up with this rubbish.:rotfl:

You had better change your signature very soon as it will cause you great embarrassment in the next few months.

dopester

Dan: wrote: »

You haven't posted for ages and then come up with this rubbish.:rotfl:

You had better change your signature very soon as it will cause you great embarrassment in the next few months.

Probably, but that isn't a certainty.

Whilst so much effort is going in to hold up house prices at the current extreme levels, the system is under massive corrective pressures.

Any number of factors could bring around faster shock falls. Refusal to buy government debt for one, for the huge borrowing the Government hopes the market will fund.

Whilst I can wait for as long as it takes, I'd like to see a bit more shock-and-awe crash destruction in prices in the UK, as can happen elsewhere.

Research firm: Dubai home prices drop 41 pct in 1Q

04.28.2009

New research shows Dubai home prices plummeted during the first three months of the year.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8022578.stm

Dan:_4

dopester wrote: »

Probably, but that isn't a certainty.

If Brit wants to see -50% on any index by xmas then he would need at least 3.6% monthly drops for the next 8 months.

dopester wrote: »

Any number of factors could bring around faster shock falls. Refusal to buy government debt for one, for the huge borrowing the Government hopes the market will fund.

Of course a number of factors could bring shock falls, but you cant live your life saying 'what if'.

'What If' I die in a car accident on my way to work this morning? Shall I stay at home just in case?

dopester wrote: »

Whilst I can wait for as long as it takes, I'd like to see a bit more shock-and-awe crash destruction in prices in the UK, as can happen elsewhere.

Im sure you would dop.

julieq

Oh come off it. You can't extrapolate from price falls in Dubai what will happen here. Dubai is a premium branded desert, not a smallish country in a populous area with immense pressure on availability of housing stock. There's no reason apart from snob value or dutch tulip style "investment" to buy property there.

carolt

I just don't get why people think that hose prices can triple in a decade (when wages go up a tiny fraction of that) and yet think that prices falling 50% is impossible!

Say you bought a house for 100K that tripled to 300K in a decade; if it falls back to 150K, you're still making a good return.

If the one was possible, then the other is just as possible - and likely.

In the absence of massive wage inflation - which is in fact the opposite of what's happening now!, as wage deflation starts to kick in - there is nothing to support house prices at existing levels.

Sorry - to those who bought at 2007 levels. But wishing a ball to stay up in the air when you throw it up is not enough to prevent gravity naturally re-asserting itself.

dopester

julieq.

All that may be so about Dubai. Yet UK "population", "shortage of stock", "demand", "smallish country" and all other similar silly arguments you rely on to justify extreme house prices in the UK...

...does not mean we have even begun to feel the full shock-and-awe power the credit-crunch still has to hit on property values in the UK.


Graph sourced from cogs @ hpc

the_ash_and_the_oak

Not really confident of predicting falls of that magnitude (fwiw concede anything possible though). Think it depends on what happens inbetween. I think around 40% total is probably where I think it'll finish (wouldnt surprise me if less, wouldn't surprise me if more). Think policies are to slow it down as much as possible (which is going to have side effect of continued reduced transactions imo). I think 30% down total is nailed down certainty - but depends when we get there - prob reassess around that time. Feel then when it does get to whatever bottom it reaches it will stay there for a good while imo

Not really feeling the 50% down by christmas thing tbh - current policies are helping to ensure people hold on to what they have and reduce repossession as much as poss - think the thing that will drive prices down further isn't people struggling to hold on to their homes, its the next generation of ftbs coming through not having the requisite wages, funds and ability to buy at current prices in sufficient number. This scenario leads to prolonged gradual falls and stasis imo

ad9898_3

julieq wrote: »

in a populous area with immense pressure on availability of housing stock.

How tired is this argument:rolleyes:, one look on Rightmove shows there is absolutely no pressure on housing stock whatsoever, in fact quite the opposite. the average sale in my area takes 260 days from the date it goes on with the estate agent, and most other areas seem to take a similar time to sell, some pressure that is.:rotfl: