Another 50% to fall off property - Robin Griffiths (Expert Economist)

Dan:_4

ad9898 wrote: »

I would be very surprised too TBH, but after the last couple of years, it's difficult to rule anything out, the issue I see at the minute is the ramping in the media over the few weeks has gone into overdrive, with virtually no substance to the claims, apart from a slight rise in mortgage approvals from historical lows, and 'that' 0.9% from the Nationwide.

Other than that, the mass media are just ignoring all the major economic fundamentals, it won't make them go away though, just because they are choosing the 'bury the head in the sand' tactic.

I still stand by what I have said a few times, let's see where we are in 6 months.

Confidence is the key to the housing market, everyone knows that. And while the media ramp like mad, buyer and seller confidence will increase.

And that is the main reason that many on here hate the media ramping.

Dan:_4

Another 50% to fall off property - Robin Griffiths (Expert Economist)

Why is it that anyone who predicts anything like 40%-80% falls banded an 'Expert Economist' by some MSE members?

penguine

Dan: wrote: »

Confidence is the key to the housing market, everyone knows that. And while the media ramp like mad, buyer and seller confidence will increase.

Not if people are worried about losing their jobs and having difficulty getting mortgages.

Dan:_4

penguine wrote: »

Not if people are worried about losing their jobs and having difficulty getting mortgages.

Not everyone is feeling this, the majority are fine.

penguine

Dan: wrote: »

Houses prices tripled in a decade? Well, mine didn't - not even double it was in 1999.

They did where we live -- a nice but not very trendy area of greater London. Our flat was valued at £55k in early 1998, then at £180k in Jan 2008. (We put in central heating but made no other improvements.)

Houses around the corner were selling at £120-£150k in 1998, ten years later selling from £350-£400k.

penguine

Dan: wrote: »

Not everyone is feeling this, the majority are fine.

You've done a survey, have you?

savermonkey

It is not possible to say this is one excesive view, and that others are more conservative views.

Currently people are holding onto houses, house sales are slow, mortages are more difficult to come by.

Just by looking at current house prices in your local estate agents windows they are often asking too much. I've seen houses which have been up for 12 months. - Why are they not selling. Because they are expecting too much.

Just as mentioned they can go up significantly, - during the 'banking' years. When sellers walk up things can fall.

Expect some areas to be worse affected than others. No doubt somewhere in the UK house prices will have fallen close to 50%. However I doubt this will be the national average.

Dan:_4

penguine wrote: »

You've done a survey, have you?

You don't need to do a survey to find out the obvious.

whathavewedone

I haven't done a survey of the entire country however all the people that I know have already been through the whole "my firm is making redundancies" thing. Two people I know have been made redundant but everyone else has survived and their firms have now cut staff as close to the bone as they can and don't plan any further redundancies.

I think a lot more people know what their job situation is now for better or worse than they did a few months ago.

Consequently I think people do feel more positive than they did before Christmas when no one knew what was going to happen this year.

Oh and to say that house prices trebled in a decade as though that happened nationwide is simply misleading.

penguine

Dan: wrote: »

You don't need to do a survey to find out the obvious.

My purely subjective opinion is that the majority of people in the UK have some level of concern about losing their jobs. I personally know 3 people in the past year who've been made redundant. All are now back in work but on fixed term contracts. For every person who knows these 3 people, the reality of losing their own jobs is now a little bit closer to home.

You're right that not everyone is worried about this and many feel confident enough to go ahead and buy a property at the moment. But to state that "the majority are fine" without any facts or figures to back it up makes for a pretty flimsy argument.