Ok lets place our bets on house prices at Christmas 2009

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

I'll remember that quote Steve when Halifax post a +2% this week coming up. I'll be watching your responses very carefully.:D

Works both ways Don't worry if it does I will be joining in the hyping, only as as in secondary evidence of course.

Graham_Devon

Dunno, but I found out yesterday I am now in negative equity!! Woop.

Anyway. My suggestion would be:

1. Nationwide. -22.5%
2. Halifax. -25%
3. LR. -21%

This does not take into account any plan the government comes up with! But we will still have low interest rates by then I reckon, sucking in quite a few buyers.

Snooze

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Dunno, but I found out yesterday I am now in negative equity!! Woop.

Anyway. My suggestion would be:

1. Nationwide. -22.5%
2. Halifax. -25%
3. LR. -21%

This does not take into account any plan the government comes up with! But we will still have low interest rates by then I reckon, sucking in quite a few buyers.

I reckon about the same. I don't think we'll see much movement either way until after the election.

Rob

Graham_Devon

Snooze wrote: »

I reckon about the same. I don't think we'll see much movement either way until after the election.

Rob

That's why I have gone low. I believe it's now going to trough out a bit, until someone with half a brain realises we can't keep interest rates this low and keep playing with monopoly money.

Labour have done every single thing they can to hold out house prices until the election. There will possibly be more canny ideas yet. Even if labour won, I believe with their renewed 5 years, they would suddenly pull the rug, as the election is won.

geoffky

for this year i think -14%...

RDB

My predictions for xmas 09 are (I will quote this in 8 months time)

1. Nationwide. -31%
2. Halifax. -34%
3. LR. -29%

Reasons the closest thing to a property crystal ball in the last few years has been the auction scene.
That's where the stuff that the estate agents can't shift ends up. In other words, it's the clearing house for housing. The sales just aren't happening. Even the homes that sell are fetching "just a fraction of what they would have even a year ago".


BTW where are all the bulls pridictions?

Lets compare in 8 months time.

Very good thread, thank you.

themanbearpig

I think its reasonable to predict an average fall of 0.5% per month this year, so 6% YoY total. So:

1. Nationwide. -25%
2. Halifax. -28%
3. LR. -23%

Could be much more, or slightly less, depending on if any other drama unfolds in the near future.


I can see prices falling by 40-50% from peak, but over a period of 5-7 years. The government has done all it can to slow down the rate of falls, but it can't stop the inevitable.

mitchaa

RDB wrote: »

My predictions for xmas 09 are (I will quote this in 8 months time)

1. Nationwide. -31%
2. Halifax. -34%
3. LR. -29%

BTW where are all the bulls pridictions?

Lets compare in 8 months time.

So you have gone for pretty much 12.5% down in the next 8 months? Considering Nationwide index has dropped only 0.7% in the last 4 months, i dont think it will be as severe as that.

Todays figures are in blue, my predictions in red..
Nationwide -18.37% (-23%)
Halifax -21.3% (-25.5%)
Land Registry -17.82 (-23%)

Does anyone know where Halifax's April figures are?

Snooze

mitchaa wrote: »

So you have gone for pretty much 12.5% down in the next 8 months? Considering Nationwide index has dropped only 0.7% in the last 4 months, i dont think it will be as severe as that.

Todays figures are in blue, my predictions in red..
Nationwide -18.37% (-23%)
Halifax -21.3% (-25.5%)
Land Registry -17.82 (-23%)

Does anyone know where Halifax's April figures are?

They are currently being "seasonally adjusted" so we can have another 182 page long thread arguing over the differences 0.1% will make.

Rob

Dan:_4

Nationwide -22%
Halifax -24%
LR -21%

I don't think these figures will differ much during 2010 either.