Ok lets place our bets on house prices at Christmas 2009

bo_drinker

What spring bounce Not round here :rotfl:

mbga9pgf

2nd wave of the crash starts as soon as the bond market collapses, Labour go begging to the IMF for the second time in a row during their term, IMF place strict budgetary controls on the UK including:

End to unemployed mortgage relief
Increase in IRs (circa 7%?)
Cap public spending by 170 Billion (unemployment hits 15%).
Cuts to major benefits required. (incapacity, unemployment benefit).
If you aint starving, you dont need support will be come the mantra.

result?

Prices down 50% off peak to trough and sellers will make NO mistake as to where the market is headded.

Larger wave of write-downs is round the corner peeps....



see the Oracle:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6647.html

mewbie_2

mbga9pgf wrote: »

2nd wave of the crash

That spoilt my day!!! Any room in Dopester's Ark?

mitchaa

Where is Dopester?

mewbie_2

mitchaa wrote: »

Where is Dopester?

In his Ark

mbga9pgf

mewbie wrote: »

That spoilt my day!!! Any room in Dopester's Ark?

Its pretty obvious from the graph that we are in a lull. The problem is, capital has been wiped out, and we now face a bigger, second wave of defaults lasting through till mid 2011.

Want to consider that before thinking about green shoots?

Or does the recent spate of news articles pumping the message 'the end is in sight' keep you all hopeful of a recovery, a recovery that has no basics on fundamentals whatsoever,

No reprieve and no return to 2007 lending
another million to lose their jobs
The major worry that the government coffers are absolutely dry, despite QE and the worst deficit in 4 generations, yet we still face major bank write downs.

Any comment on the above? Or will prices remain high even though those who are holding out for a recovery are about to get a very rude awakening?

mewbie_2

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Want to consider that before thinking about green shoots?

Er.. wrong target mate. I wasn't being sarcastic, but had kind of put Armageddon out of my mind. I am not a green shoot member, but do admit to being a bit of an ostrich. So I hope for better times, but fear worse times. Hence the spoiling my day comment.

mbga9pgf

mewbie wrote: »

Er.. wrong target mate. I wasn't being sarcastic, but had kind of put Armageddon out of my mind. I am not a green shoot member, but do admit to being a bit of an ostrich. So I hope for better times, but fear worse times. Hence the spoiling my day comment.

Sorry dude, I lost the sarcasm in your post!

nickj_2

i think any green shoots of recovery are only being sustained by the low interest rates , they will not stay this low forever and then we'll see further falls . as most of the credit crunch was fuelled by unsustainable house prices i think the boe is now backed into a corner - what ever it does will lead to more pain

themanbearpig

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Its pretty obvious from the graph that we are in a lull. The problem is, capital has been wiped out, and we now face a bigger, second wave of defaults lasting through till mid 2011.

Want to consider that before thinking about green shoots?

Or does the recent spate of news articles pumping the message 'the end is in sight' keep you all hopeful of a recovery, a recovery that has no basics on fundamentals whatsoever,

No reprieve and no return to 2007 lending
another million to lose their jobs
The major worry that the government coffers are absolutely dry, despite QE and the worst deficit in 4 generations, yet we still face major bank write downs.

Any comment on the above? Or will prices remain high even though those who are holding out for a recovery are about to get a very rude awakening?

Its a bit like the 2nd wave of swine flu which may combine with something nasty, and kill us all. Everyone knows it is very possible, but nobody wants to come to terms with it it because there is nothing we can do about it.