Ok lets place our bets on house prices at Christmas 2009

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With the spring bounce that we are having (and have every year to some degree), a lot of bulls are feeling triumphant at the moment, I have little idea why, other than things that couldn't get any worse have suddenly got a tiny amount better, however I digress.

Where do we think prices will be by the end of the year from peak ? We have 8 months of data left, so place your bets on the main 3 indexes, with perhaps a brief explanation on your figures. Current indexes are.

1. Nationwide. -18.87%
2. Halifax -21.3%
3. LR -17.3%

My belief.

1. Nationwide. -27%
2. Halifax. -30%
3. LR. -25%

Reasons, there are no real economic arguments that hold any water that suggest any kind of stagnation at this time, unemployment rising, GDP shrinkage, tax rises, mortgage deals getting worse. All these indicators in the last crash were getting better, yet prices still fell, this time, they are all getting worse, so prices will inevitably fall further.

Generali

Prices dropping by a percent a month is certainly better than where we have been. It seems plausible although it's hard to say where things are going as we've not really been in anything like this situation before.

rent_and_buy

I hope your right, ill be ready to buy in about 6 to 12 months, i just dont think they will fall that much, to be honest by me they havent fell much at all compared to your figures.

I think the only way we will see sharp falls is if the interest rates go up and then people will be forced to drop prices, but until rates go up i think the market will stay steady.

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Generali wrote: »

Prices dropping by a percent a month is certainly better than where we have been. It seems plausible although it's hard to say where things are going as we've not really been in anything like this situation before.

Oh I agree, it's just abit of fun really, and perhaps a thread we can drag up at Christmas to see who was wrong or right, no one knows for sure, it's just a punt.

Generali

ad9898 wrote: »

Oh I agree, it's just abit of fun really, and perhaps a thread we can drag up at Christmas to see who was wrong or right, no one knows for sure, it's just a punt.

I find it funny how Investment Banks (despite their obvious failings when it came to predicting their own desmise) confidently predict numbers for where the economy is when their models must be screwed, utterly.

What numbers to you punch in to your model to reflect the insolvency of the US banking system, the nationalisation of countless retail banks, interest rates in many countries at historic lows and Governments printing and borrowing money like there's no tomorrow?

mewbie_2

ad9898 wrote: »

Oh I agree, it's just abit of fun really, and perhaps a thread we can drag up at Christmas to see who was wrong or right, no one knows for sure, it's just a punt.

Whatever, I'll just edit mine to make me look like a gnu.

3.5 million unemployed. Interest rate and tax rises to come. End of BTL. Apparently there are less FTB's now than there were last year. Temporary dawning on people that houses can drop in value.

At least 1% a month for the foreseeable looks a pretty safe bet.

vigesimal

My belief.

1. Nationwide. -30%
2. Halifax. -33%
3. LR. -27%

Generali

mewbie wrote: »

At least 1% a month for the foreseeable looks a pretty safe bet.

The way things have been recently, the forseeable future is about Wednesday on a good week, the US markets open in a bad one!

torontoboy45

we've seen falls in the past but, as gen points out, this time around the situation is unique.uncharted territory stuff.
that said,1% MOM fall predictions don't seem unreasonable (and prob. on the low side).

StevieJ

LR and FT -20%

I am not interested in the Joke indexes

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StevieJ wrote: »

I am not interested in the Joke indexes

I'll remember that quote Steve when Halifax post a +2% this week coming up. I'll be watching your responses very carefully.:D