NATIONWIDE - UK house prices fall 0.4 pct mm in April

thegibdog

stephen163 wrote: »

This is why using "nominal" (non seasonally adjusted) values isn't as good as using seasonally adjusted values for making comparisons.

I don't know why they don't just use 12 month averages, it would make much more sense than comparing monthly figures.

ad9898_3

thegibdog wrote: »

I don't know why they don't just use 12 month averages, it would make much more sense than comparing monthly figures.

Then what would argue/banter about ?:D Come on this is all good fun, I'm pretty happy and most other FTB'rs should be as far as the figures that have come out over the last 18 months or so. The only bad thing that could happen now is HPI taking off again, it's not going to happen, even the bulls on here would concede that. So if there isn't 1 more monthly drop, enjoy the 3-4 years of stagnation, and keep saving until you see something worth buying.

I'm also all for large deposits of 25% being required for good deals, it teaches people how to save, and the value of money.

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

Having been along to to HPC this morning and reading through some threads, I found this post, if true (and I will admit I haven't checked), some pause for thought maybe in order.

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Then again they didn't fall by 70% in the 90's :rotfl:

stephen163

Really2 wrote: »

Sorry but it is only any use for statistics and means nothing in the real world.

You would not make an offer based on seasonal adjustments you would make it on what you purchased nominaly.

Like the OP said a mortgage is nominal it does not get weighted for the time of year so if you are an owner you always think nominaly.
You will only be worth what you can sell for a nominal, never a seasonaly adjusted amount.;)

We are talking about changes in house prices here, right?

The question you should be asking is, did the average price house change because of an underlying trend, or was it because of a seasonal trend? - the answer is both, it is always both for house prices.

All that should matter in the examination of house price changes is the underlying trend. You know they will increase by an additional 1% or so in April, as you also know they will decrease by an additional 1% in January. You can work this out from previous data. This is why seasonal adjustment is necessary - to remove this 'noise' and to get to the proper trend; and the skepticism on the validity of doing this would soon vanish if people knew how widely similar techniques are used by businesses, forecasters and analysts the world over.

Your view is a bit like you standing up in a room full of ice lolly price analysts and stating that this July's 300% increase in sales compared to last December is due to an incredible increase in the underlying trend, whereas everyone else in the room knows it is completely seasonal. Now, what gives the truest figure - a comparison of summer to winter, or a seasonally adjusted comparison? If you were an investor in ice lolly companies, what would you seriously look at?

Really2

stephen163 wrote: »

Your view is a bit like you standing up in a room full of ice lolly price analysts and stating that this July's 300% increase in sales compared to last December is due to an incredible increase in the underlying trend, whereas everyone else in the room knows it is completely seasonal. Now, what gives the truest figure - a comparison of summer to winter, or a seasonally adjusted comparison? If you were an investor in ice lolly companies, what would you seriously look at?

It is not my view I am just pointing out the nominal fact's in the figures without the seasonal ajustments.

A lot of the bears argue that the sesonal adjustment is against them and the numbers are to low to be significant.

So are you staing then that the underlying trend now is we are getting to the bottom/stagnation?

StevieJ

What was that about truth, lies and then there are dam statistics

StevieJ

Really2 wrote: »

It is not my view I am just pointing out the nominal fact's in the figures without the seasonal ajustments.

A lot of the bears argue that the sesonal adjustment is against them and the numbers are to low to be significant.

So are you staing then that the underlying trend now is we are getting to the bottom/stagnation?

No harm in using both to suit the cause, the other lot do

stephen163

It's just too early to tell. Some people are buying now based on their belief that the bottom has been reached. The majority, IMO, are still holding out and will stagger back slowly and steadily - a bit at a time. I just get the feeling now that in a few years time, we will look back at Spring 2009 and say it was the time the housing market released its parachute, and Spring 2010 will be when a falling or stagnating trend turns to a positive one. That's my guess.

Cannon_Fodder

Here's the current graph...as chucky posted an old one.

JonnyBravo

StevieJ wrote: »

What was that about truth, lies and then there are dam statistics

Exactly. And here are some dam statistics courtesy of Wiki.

Hoover Dam, originally known as Boulder Dam, is a concrete arch gravity dam in the Black Canyon of the Colorado River, on the border between the U.S states of Arizona and Nevada. When completed in 1936, it was both the world's largest electric-power generating station and the world's largest concrete structure. It was surpassed in both these respects by the Grand Coulee Dam in 1945. It is currently the world's 35th-largest hydroelectric generating station