NATIONWIDE - UK house prices fall 0.4 pct mm in April

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Ok, I'm back to stand up for the bears:D, I think we need to get a little perspective on these kind of falls (-0.4%), lets just take out the seasonal adjustment issue for a minute. I think HPC'rs have been a little spoilt over the last 18 months with the large -1.5-2% falls we have seen, these falls are huge on a monthly basis, much smaller falls, like the one this month are much nearer the norm.

Having been along to to HPC this morning and reading through some threads, I found this post, if true (and I will admit I haven't checked), some pause for thought maybe in order.

During the 1990s house price crash, during the 84 months from the beginning of 1989 till the end of 1995, there were only 22 months in which house prices fell by more than -0.4% - yep, only 22 months out of 84.

-0.4% as a MoM fall in house prices, during the 1990s crash was seen as a big drop.

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inspector_monkfish

Anyone fancy a pint ?

Chris2685

Am I being dumb here?

Why does the average house price increase from 150,946 to 151,861? How can that be a 0.4% drop?

Edit: Nevermind, it was explained in an earlier post of this epic thread.

ruggedtoast

ukcarper wrote: »

What percentage of people buying property are dabbling in the market as opposed to buying somewhere to live.

Pretty much everyone who gives a tinkers about a 0.4% rise / fall in seasonally adjusted / non adjusted figures, to the point that they'll get upset about it on a web forum.

chucky

ad9898 wrote: »

Ok, I'm back to stand up for the bears:D, I think we need to get a little perspective on these kind of falls (-0.4%), lets just take out the seasonal adjustment issue for a minute. I think HPC'rs have been a little spoilt over the last 18 months with the large -1.5-2% falls we have seen, these falls are huge on a monthly basis, much smaller falls, like the one this month are much nearer the norm.

Having been along to to HPC this morning and reading through some threads, I found this post, if true (and I will admit I haven't checked), some pause for thought maybe in order.

During the 1990s house price crash, during the 84 months from the beginning of 1989 till the end of 1995, there were only 22 months in which house prices fell by more than -0.4% - yep, only 22 months out of 84.

-0.4% as a MoM fall in house prices, during the 1990s crash was seen as a big drop.

.

typical HPC.co.uk - not looking at all the facts that are available...

how about the early 80s recession where the reverese happened.

straws and clutching comes to mind

chucky

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

Anyone fancy a pint ?

prefer going for a steak at Gauchos!!

Really2

stephen163 wrote: »

This is why using "nominal" (non seasonally adjusted) values isn't as good as using seasonally adjusted values for making comparisons.

Sorry but it is only any use for statistics and means nothing in the real world.

You would not make an offer based on seasonal adjustments you would make it on what you purchased nominaly.

Like the OP said a mortgage is nominal it does not get weighted for the time of year so if you are an owner you always think nominaly.
You will only be worth what you can sell for a nominal, never a seasonaly adjusted amount.;)

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Chris2685 wrote: »

Am I being dumb here?

Why does the average house price increase from 150,946 to 151,861? How can that be a 0.4% drop?

Edit: Nevermind, it was explained in an earlier post of this epic thread.

It's something to do with seasonal adjust I think, it works both ways, so no real complaint from me, however, I just wished the figures weren't manipulated regardless of whether a bull or a bear would benefit in any kind of discussion.

Generali

chucky wrote: »

prefer going for a steak at Gauchos!!

Now you're talking!

Each individual figure doesn't really matter. The overall picture does.

Dan:_4

ad9898 wrote: »

Ok, I'm back to stand up for the bears:D, I think we need to get a little perspective on these kind of falls (-0.4%), lets just take out the seasonal adjustment issue for a minute. I think HPC'rs have been a little spoilt over the last 18 months with the large -1.5-2% falls we have seen, these falls are huge on a monthly basis, much smaller falls, like the one this month are much nearer the norm.

Having been along to to HPC this morning and reading through some threads, I found this post, if true (and I will admit I haven't checked), some pause for thought maybe in order.

.

Welcome ad,

The quote from HPC.co.uk may well be true, but the total fall, peak to bottom, was around 20% - pretty much what we have had already, so it's not really comparable.