When will we get growth again?

*MF*

Generali wrote: »

To clarify, I think the Govt's presentation of The Budget was dodgy, not yours.

Apologies for the implied insult - none was meant.

None taken ...

A_fiend_for_life

Paul Mason on newsnight:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00k3nz7/Newsnight_23_04_2009/

A_fiend_for_life

StevieJ wrote: »

So why have you put second or third qtr 2010

That's the earliest I think we will see any growth I don't think it will be sustained though. I think a change of government will have a short term effect but beyond that I don't know.

purch

Paul Mason, the BBC Newsnight commentator, has unearthed the fact (but not the details nor explanation) that the effects of £75bn of QE were included as part of the growth projections from Alasdair Darling

The problem with that is they havn't the foggiest idea what the effects of QE will be. I can't see the Govt actually admitting that they took into account QE in their projections, as it would be tantamount to admitting it's all totally pie in the sky guesswork.

ad9898_3

I voted Q1 2011, the reason ?, with the figures that were put out today, which are bad enough, things have the potential to get worse. Unemployment is only at 2.1 million at the moment, with another 900,000 forecast to lose their job this year alone, where can a possible recovery come from ?, considering most of our economy is powered by consumer spending.

I expect a trough next year of -1 to -2%, with a slow recovery beginning in 2011. As for this year, we can already see how laughable Darling's figures were in the budget, with GDP shrinking by -1.9% in just 3 months, does anyone seriously believe we are only going to see another -1.6% for the next 9 months !!, I suspect GDP for this year will be approaching -5%, possibly more.

*MF*

purch wrote: »

The problem with that is they havn't the foggiest idea what the effects of QE will be. I can't see the Govt actually admitting that they took into account QE in their projections, as it would be tantamount to admitting it's all totally pie in the sky guesswork.

Extract from a debate in the House of Lords, a couple of days ago ...

Lord Myners (Parliamentary Secretary, HM Treasury; Labour)

It will clearly be necessary at some point in the future to reverse the impact of quantitative easing, which we will do through increases in interest rates, allowing existing bonds to mature and selling stock from the APF back into the marketplace.

Extract from here:

http://www.theyworkforyou.com/lords/?id=2009-04-22a.1493.0


Be warned, lol!

And interesting isn't it - who else thought the BofE had gained its independence on setting interest rates, second lol!

Mind you Lord Myners made such a great job over Fred's pension maybe we should just let him sort it all out?

tomterm8

I put in Q4 of 2009, but I feel like I'm cheating.I expect the kind of anemic growth that you get from an inventory bounce in late 2009, simply because retail sales are increasing.

It's like in the 1980's recession, where there was a blip and GDP went positive for a quarter. Followed by a couple more negative quarters.

That will be followed by more recession, not by a great deal of recovery.

MSE_Martin

Thank you.

Its genuinely nice to have your contribution.

By tight and rapid, do you been at levels steeper than we've seen so far or that you see them continuing on this sort of decline til last quarter (or thereabouts) ? May I ask how you've arrived at this position too?

(I'm not a meany posing leading questions, I'm a frightened woman trying to understand a mess.)

Im not an economist and dont study this - so im just an interested generalist like everyone else. Its an instinct thing. I think politicians have a vested interest in recession ending sooner. As recession is simply two successive quarters of negative growth to end it you have a quarter of growth - even a small one.

So imagine the economy plunges to 92% of what it was, then grows 0.1% to 92.1% (ish) recessions over, even though things are still prettty bad.

With quantitatiive easing, and a coming election I can see a push towards that. Again though - this isnt my professional subject so im just mulling.

lostinrates

MSE_Martin wrote: »

- this isnt my professional subject so im just mulling.

I'm certainly not going to hold you to it. FWIW I'm just overjoyed you replied, whenever I've addressed question in threads you've posted in you've not responded I also note having a more active contributary board guide is proving good for spirits of the regulars. (just so you know misskool is being appreciated)

ManAtHome

I think we might have a blip in Q4 this year as well. The Dumper-truck of Dosh (QE) has to hit sometime, and maybe a combination of loosing lending and retailers trying to get the rent money in will start a charge to the shops.

Sustainable growth a lot further off, and there will be a drag for a long time as we try get debt levels back to 'normal' (even longer if we aim for 2003 normal instead of 2007 normal).