When will we get growth again?

MSE_Martin

I thought it'd be interesting to test this boards view on where we are in the economic cycle.

Quarter 1 (Q1) of 2009 showed a contraction of GDP by 1.9%, so when will the economy start to grow again.
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It's worth remembering that if we shrink so rapidly then growth off such a low base isn't that tough. So this isn't a "when will it all be better" poll, just a "when will it stop getting worse."

Please see the poll.

ThinkingOfLinking

I went with Quarter 3, 2011, as I initially misunderstood the question, thinking it was more along the lines of significant growth rather than any. I think that things will pick up more around this time as it'll be nearing the Olympics and the jobs that will be brought and the extra tourism will boost coffers and confidence and people will be spending more and the economy will really enjoy a period of growth as a result.

mbga9pgf

No recovery until all the bad blood gets washed out of the system....




Which is a very long time away. All we are experiencing at the moment is a dip in resets which are causing banks to loosen lending a little and giving the appearance of a recovery, combined with all manner of doomed government schemes which are bound to fail and waste oodles of taxpayer s cash.

lostinrates

No idea whatsoever..I guess there are more peoplelike me than there are of any option in the poll.

*MF*

Just my 2p ...

A period of sustained economic growth which positively improves the standards of living for the majority in the UK does not fall within the periods allowed for in the poll. It lies beyond, perhaps far beyond.

We are in a hole, a very very deep hole, and yes, as we climb out it will seem like we are getting higher, ie, growth, but it will in large respect be an illusion.

vivatifosi

I think growth in 2010 is entirely feasible, but there's a big gap between a little bit of growth and achieving the chancellor's optimistic forecast, as indeed there is between a little bit of growth and clawing back to the position we were at prior to recession.

Generali

I reckon Q2 2010 - that would be a long recession in historic terms and there is a good chance that QE will work temporarily, IMO.

purch

A period of sustained economic growth which positively improves the standards of living for the majority in the UK does not fall within the periods allowed for in the poll. It lies beyond, perhaps far beyond

Quite likely.

The time that we get back to what most would consider 'normal' economic growth will be many years away, certainly beyond the scope of the poll.

I have "voted" 3rd quarter of 2010 for a time when a positive growth number is posted, not that I would expect that number to have anything other than a zero before the decimal point.

MSE_Martin

I'm tempted to run this as a main site poll in a couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see how the view of people who enjoy debating the economy - varies against a more mainstream vote.

lostinrates

MSE_Martin wrote: »

I'm tempted to run this as a main site poll in a couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see how the view of people who enjoy debating the economy - varies against a more mainstream vote.

yes, it really would be.

Do you have an opinion on this?

Generali

MSE_Martin wrote: »

I'm tempted to run this as a main site poll in a couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see how the view of people who enjoy debating the economy - varies against a more mainstream vote.

What do you think out of interest? You seemed to be pretty down on Mr Darling's predictions yesterday.