Now property sales are rising - the best feeling of owning your first home

inspector_monkfish

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Given that housing is a market - is it possible to argue that 'recovery' should be measured in transactions rather than % price change

ie - if prices stayed static or rose, but transactions stayed at current levels (or lower than average levels) - could that be considered a recovery (in terms of houses role in wider economy?)

the_ash_and_the_oak

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

An open question really - interested in thoughts.

i) Given that the economy is largely built on the housing market and that money creation takes place through largely through residential lending - A return to higher levels of lending could introduce money to the economy again at a more steady rate and also get the wheels moving again. Is there a certain level of activity whereby there can be said to even "be a market" again, regardless of price?

ii) Like most bubbles this one has been marked by investment mania and 'innovative financial products' as people hopped on the latest one way ticket. Given that a large section of UK new build housing is of less than desirable quality, the sizeable inventory of oversupply (particularly in certain sectors) - aimed largely at an amateur-investor crowd, at the lower end of the price scale, is there an argument that really a lot of these are only really sellable to investors (are first time buyers really going to be going for those luxury 21st century loft living blocks?).

Many said that "nice houses in nice areas" won't fall (which is another way of saying the falls are going to be concentrated in newbuild investorland). Do we feel regular houses are likely to recover before flats and what would have traditionally been social housing (function now fulfilled by BTL landlords). Overall would this not skew figures upwards as many lower priced flats not really sellable). Here is a scenario in which prices could rise as only regular houses begin to sell, but transaction levels would remain muted. Could this be called a recovery?

Generali

StevieJ wrote: »

Where do you get 6 months from? I should think 2-3 months at tops If it is lagging one of them will be a price increase

BTW, must be telling lies.
FTHPI is the only UK house price index based upon every residential property transaction in England and Wales and is designed to provide a “true measure of house price inflation”

FTHPI is very accurate but also lags badly.

Haliwide is timely but a little less accurate.

Rightmove et al measure asking prices so are like those products sold on late night TV - cheap and quick but pretty useless.

StevieJ

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Many said that "nice houses in nice areas" won't fall (which is another way of saying the falls are going to be concentrated in newbuild investorland). Do we feel regular houses are likely to recover before flats and what would have traditionally been social housing (function now fulfilled by BTL landlords). Overall would this not skew figures upwards as many lower priced flats not really sellable). Here is a scenario in which prices could rise as only regular houses begin to sell, but transaction levels would remain muted. Could this be called a recovery?

Flats will never recover to where they were, way too many built.

WhiteThierry

rumbaba wrote: »

Not sure these days where to put property posts so thought I'd paste and copy this onto here too.

It's been all over the news this morning, and in the papers that house sales have gone up by 12% in the last month and that sales are up by 20% since this time last year.

Obviously, the property market is slowly starting to recover as was expected by many (except the ones who were hoping people would have to give them away! LOL)

One quarter of the buyers are first timers and it must be so exciting for them to know that they've finally managed to get on the first rung of the property ladder, and that they're on their way to owning their very own home!

When we first married many years ago and found our first real home it was a mixture of excitement and nervousness. We did struggle at the beginning, we had bare floorboards for a couple of years - strange how they're trendy now HA HA! and then we got wall to wall carpeting and felt like we were millionaires!

Every little thing we did to our house was so gratifying and exciting. Deciding on which colours to paint it, wallpaper patterns, plants for the garden. I remember our first party too when it was finally done up after about 3 years. We invited all our family, friends and neighbours and had a fab party and oh how we swooned over our avocado bathroom suite!!LOL Seems funnt to look back on, but boy, buying your first home is the best feeling in the world!

why would a property market recovery be good news for FTB's like myself. what sort of lunatic would want to pay more for something???

Entertainer

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

An open question really - interested in thoughts.

i) Given that the economy is largely built on the housing market and that money creation takes place through largely through residential lending - A return to higher levels of lending could introduce money to the economy again at a more steady rate and also get the wheels moving again. Is there a certain level of activity whereby there can be said to even "be a market" again, regardless of price?

ii) Like most bubbles this one has been marked by investment mania and 'innovative financial products' as people hopped on the latest one way ticket. Given that a large section of UK new build housing is of less than desirable quality, the sizeable inventory of oversupply (particularly in certain sectors) - aimed largely at an amateur-investor crowd, at the lower end of the price scale, is there an argument that really a lot of these are only really sellable to investors (are first time buyers really going to be going for those luxury 21st century loft living blocks?).

Many said that "nice houses in nice areas" won't fall (which is another way of saying the falls are going to be concentrated in newbuild investorland). Do we feel regular houses are likely to recover before flats and what would have traditionally been social housing (function now fulfilled by BTL landlords). Overall would this not skew figures upwards as many lower priced flats not really sellable). Here is a scenario in which prices could rise as only regular houses begin to sell, but transaction levels would remain muted. Could this be called a recovery?

What happened in the last crash of the early 90's was that in the mid 90's recovery, people were avoiding flats and going straight to houses. So, for example, in 1995 you could buy a 3 bed terrace in the SE for £50k, a flat for £35k- people bought houses on grounds of cost as it wasn't much more. Estate agents in London would not even come out to look at one bed flats for £35k as the demand was so low. In 1996, when prices started to rise, houses rose first and then the flats caught up some years later, eventually outstripping the percentage rise e.g 300% as the property/ BTL boom took hold.

besonders1

Last year I have seen council flats being priced almost as expensive as houses whereas I recall that flats were often for sale very cheaply compared to houses in the mid 1990s. Similarly I have noticed that back-to-back terraced houses seem to be coming down faster now. Seems as if history is repeating itself and there is nothing anyone can do about it.

scousethife

Will igloos drop in value due to global warming?

inspector_monkfish

01:17 27Apr09 - UK house prices decline slows in April - Hometrack

00:16 GMT - [UK] house prices continues to decline at a slower pace in Apr
further strengthening the mkt's believe that the fall in UK house prices
may have hit the trough. Hometrack says that house prices in England &
Wales fell 0.3% m/m vs -0.6% while the y/y came in at -10.1% vs -10.3% in
Mar to an affordable Gbp155,600. Despite the data, Hometrack warned that
it was still too early to say that the moribund housing mkt is on the mend
and that Apr's number could well be due to seasonal factors. Mkt players
still reckon, the pressure on prices is still on the downside given the
dire econ situation & high unemployment & a credit mkt that is still not
back to normal yet. Hometrack said that "only when first-time buyers feel
confident to enter the mkt in significant numbers can we really start to
claim any"real" grren shoots of recovery. Agreed sales rose nearly 15% vs
18.6% while sellers achieved 89.6% of their asking price on avg vs 88.8%
prev, the highest since Sep 2008.

JayScottGreenspan

chucky wrote: »

we've been through this before haven't we - how many house price indexes are they that tell different information due to them looking at different data and different regions?? that's why i put "5-10% or even 15%".

this one is the most comprehensive... but probably not what people want to see...

http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/ftHousePrices.php

StevieJ wrote: »

No its 13% Prefer actual sales rather than all that mumbo jumbo.

http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/ftHousePrices.php

YoY HPI turns negative:
Halifax - March 08
Nationwide - April 08
..
Land Registry - June 08
FT Acadametrix - July 08




http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/bispap21p.pdf

Land Registry lags by about 2-3 months. FT index lags by at least as much