Nouriel Roubini: Stock market bulls have got it wrong

StevieJ

Masomnia wrote: »

[ramp]Yes! Buy that, you'll get an ace yield (8%ish), good potential for capital growth etc etc. [/ramp]

Info for you Masomnia

Royal Bank of Scotland upgrades BP (BP.LN) to buy from hold, and lifts its target price to 565p from 550p. Says the company's maintained dividend of $0.14 per quarter is solidly underpinned, suggesting the 2009 yield is attractive at 8.7%. Adds the company's other attractions include the prospect of modest growth in production in 2009, driven by the ramp-up at Thunder Horse and further benefits from higher refining availability and corporate simplification. Shares closed at 451p. (ISD)

sabretoothtigger

Nouriel Roubini in Oliver Stone Wall Street 2 Money Never Sleeps Top

Nouriel Roubini in Oliver Stone Wall Street Movie Nouriel Roubini will have a small role in the upcoming Oliver Stone sequel, Wall S treet 2 Money Never Sleeps has become a hotbed for Hollywood’s A-list. The first film starred current TV actor Charlie Sheen as Gordon Gekko’s naive apprentice Bud Fox, and apparently he’s back for more, and surprisingly the long awaited casting of Jonah Hex aka Josh Brolin has also been confirmed! Nouriel Roubini Dr Doom NYU Professor And Chairman Of RGE Monitor professor of Economics, and is best reknown for predicting the current the collapse of the housing market and the current financial recession.

Wookster wrote: »

Another hugely respected figure seems to think that we're in a dead cat bounce.

Bulls take note.

The cat had a jet pack :O

mewbie_2

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

The cat had a jet pack :O

Might be a bit soon to start singing. Beginning to stretch incredulity this one, a boom built on borrowed money? Surely too soon after the last one?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Wookster wrote: »

Another hugely respected figure seems to think that we're in a dead cat bounce.

Bulls take note.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Respected????????????

Roubini is an extremist tin foil hat wearing doom monger.

There's a reason they call him Dr Doom....

sabretoothtigger

mewbie wrote: »

Might be a bit soon to start singing. Beginning to stretch incredulity this one, a boom built on borrowed money? Surely too soon after the last one?

Jet pack might run out of jet fuel then we can pray for a parachute

Cleaver

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Respected????????????

Roubini is an extremist tin foil hat wearing doom monger.

There's a reason they call him Dr Doom....

All from Wiki but I'm sure it's true:

Nouriel Roubini (born on March 29, 1959) is a professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University and chairman of RGE Monitor, an economic consultancy firm. After receiving BA in political economics at Bocconi University and doctorate in international economics at Harvard University, he began academic research and policy making by teaching at Yale while also spending time at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and Bank of Israel. Much of his early studies focused on emerging markets. During the administration of President Bill Clinton, he was a senior economist for the Council of Economic Advisers, later moving to the United States Treasury Department as a senior adviser to Timothy Geithner, who is now Treasury Secretary.

Prospect Magazine, in January 2009, voted him #2 on its "list of the world’s 100 greatest living public intellectuals".

In September 2006, he clearly saw the end of the real estate bubble: "When supply increases, prices fall: That’s been the trend for 110 years, since 1890. But since 1997, real home prices have increased by about 90 percent. There is no economic fundamental—real income, migration, interest rates, demographics—that can explain this. It means there was a speculative bubble. And now that bubble is bursting." In the Spring 2006 issue of International Finance, he wrote an article titled "Why Central Banks Should Burst Bubbles" [9] in which he argued that central banks should take action against asset bubbles. When asked whether the real estate ride was over, he said, "Not only is it over, it’s going to be a nasty fall."

Roubini currently predicts that the global economy will begin recovering near the end of 2009, but the U.S. economy is likely to grow only about 1 percent annually during the next two years, which is less than the 3 percent normal "trend."[14] He notes that the Fed is "now embarked on a policy in which they are in effect directly monetizing about half of the budget deficit," but that as of now "monetization is not inflationary," as banks are holding much of the money themselves and not relending it. At some point, however, probably by 2011, he sees the recession ending, and "banks will want to lend the money; people and businesses will want to borrow and spend it." Then it will be time for an "exit strategy, of mopping up that liquidity" and taking some of the money back out of circulation, "so it doesn’t just bid up house prices and stock values in a new bubble. And that will be 'very, very tricky indeed,'" he states.[13]

At a conference in Dubai in January, 2009, he said, the U.S. banking system was "effectively insolvent." He added that the "systemic banking crisis.... The problems of Citi, Bank of America and others suggest the system is bankrupt. In Europe, it’s the same thing."[17] To deal with this problem, he recommends that the U.S. government "do triage between banks that are illiquid and undercapitalized but solvent, and those that are insolvent. The insolvent ones you have to shut down." He adds, "We're in a war economy. You need command-economy allocation of credit to the real economy. Not enough is being done," he felt at the time.

I think he sounds a touch pessimistic, but quite sensible on the whole. Doesn't mean I would agree with everything he said, but dismissing a man like this would be foolish, surely?

I also don't think any of that sounds particulary 'tin foil hat'. Unless something contains the words 'shotgun', 'beans', 'mad max', 'austerity' or the phrase 'future tax burdens for our children and our children's children', I refuse to file it in the mentalist dooming section.

sabretoothtigger

I rank him over government pawn krugman but faber is one whose been right on the dollar and markets recently

Roubini isnt exactly wrong or exactly right, Im not sure I gain any great insight by listening to him.
The best writers would illustrate the mechanics behind the moves, I dont expect anyone to know the future precisely



If you google the headline to any of these paragraphs you will probably get the full article to match

The financial crisis would have happened even if Lehman Brothers was bailed out Nouriel Roubini Top
US Economy is Facing Death by a Thousand Cuts says Roubini The financial crisis would have happened even if Lehman Brothers was bailed out, Nouriel Roubini , chairman of RGEMonitor.com, told CNBC. He discusses the anniversary of the firm's collapse and the state of global financial markets. "It's going to be death by a thousand cuts," said Roubin i, chairman of RGE Monitor and economics professor at New York University's Stern School of Business. "The financial system is severely damaged, and it's not just the banks." Roubini predicted more than 1,000 financial institutions could fail before all is said and done. "The gap between supply and demand is so huge we could stop producing new homes for a year to get rid of all the inventory," Roubini added. " This price adjustment, in my opinion, is going to continue for another year." " We already were in the middle of a very severe crisis. Saying that bailout out Lehman, everything would have been OK, is nonsense " he said. " Lehman was a symptom of the crisis, not the cause of the crisis."



Roubini U shaped recovery is possible Top
Roubini: “U-shaped” recovery is possible September 6, 2009 CERNOBBIO, Italy (Reuters) - Nouriel Roubini , a leading economist who predicted the scale of global financial troubles, said a U-shaped recovery is possible, with leading economies undeperforming perhaps for 3 years. He said there is also an increasing risk of a “double-dip” scenario, however. “I believe that the basic scenario is going to be one of a U-shaped economic recovery where growth is going to remain below trend … especially for the advanced economies, for at least 2 or 3 years,” he said at a news conference here. “Within that U scenario I also see a small probability, but a rising probability, that if we don’t get the exit strategy right we could end up with a relapse in growth … a double-dip recession,” he added. Roubini, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, said he was concerned economies which save a lot, such as China, Japan and Germany, might not boost consumption enough to compensate for any fall in demand from “overspenders” such as the United States and Britain. Read entire article Via Infowars.com

Roubini Says Bank Bonus Changes Critical After Crisis Bloomberg Top
Sept. 4 speaking at a conference in Cernobbio on the Como lake in Northen Italy Dr Doom and University Professor Nouriel Roubini emphasized the need for changes in the banking compensation policies and regulations as the world economy is showing signs of emerging from the worst economic crisis after the great depression. Via Bloomberg Nouriel Roubini , NYU Professor And Chairman Of RGE Monitor Tags: nouriel roubini dr doom gold silver economy economic recovery recession depression revolution Business Economy Stock Market Energy Real Estate Banking Law Legal Issues Personal Finance Business Economy International Real Estate Banking Government Politics Editors Pick Taleb Black Swan Financial Crisis Depression Marc faber jim rogers max keiser gerald celente peter schiff ron paul Peter Schiff Ron Paul glenn beck obama CNN FOX CNBC Bloomberg aljazeera warren buffett marc gold silver dollar lou dobbs bob chapman alex jones david icke economy collapse stock market wall street

Bank Balance Sheets Post Biggest Threat To Recovery Top
China is too small to be the main engine of global growth " The debt ratios of banks and (individuals) are very high; (Individuals) have barely started saving. So what we’ve done is socialize these private losses and now we have a massive releveraging of the public sector with large and unsustainable budget deficits." Roubini told CNBC Fast Money... "I don’t believe China can be the main locomotive of global growth – China GDP is only $3 trillion the US is $15 trillion. Chinese total consumption is $1 trillion the US is $10 trillion. So China is too small to be the main locomotive of engine of global growth, and there are excesses right now in China like froth in the real estate and the stock market. And there is now the beginning of a correction. And if there was a sharp slowdown in China, that’s going to be again negative for the global economy." Roubini said in the same interview about China

Governments are running Ponzi Schemes Nouriel Roubini Top
Doctor Doom Nouriel Roubini in his recent article on Forbes entitled The Spend And Borrow Economy dated 08.27.09 explains elegantly the governments deficits and over spending "When governments reach the point where they are borrowing to pay the interest on their borrowing they are coming dangerously close to running a sovereign Ponzi scheme." he said , I could not agree more ... Read the entire article here:

Nouriel Roubini Bullish on China and India Top
Nouriel Roubini, Co-Founder and Chairman of RGE Monito, said the recession will continue through the end of the year. He added that due to financial imbalances of the economy, advanced economies, especially US, Europe and Japan , will see growth below the potential for the next couple of years. Regarding the Asian economies, Roubini said China ’s policy actions will lead to recovery and that demand from China for commodities will also help the recovery of Asia . “ India , also, might observe an economic recovery given that they have better economy demand than other countries in the region,” he added.

Nouriel Roubini Recession to end by December but market may correct Top
Recession to end by December but market may correct Nouriel Roubini Nouriel Roubini also named Dr Doom for accurately forecasting the financial crisis before it happened , said that the risk of the US economy slipping into a near depression had been eliminated due to the massive fiscal stimulation by the government. “However, we are already now in the 20th month of this severe recession, the worse we have had since the last 60 years. It’s going to be over by December I believe, exactly 24 months as I had said long before.” Roubini said "asset prices would have gone higher had there not been a significant rally due to the avoidance of the depression, lesser risk aversion and improvement in the global economic outlook". “The question is whether we are going to eye too much too soon, too fast compared to the improvement of the economic fundamentals and in my view there is a risk of a correction.” Nouriel added

Nouriel Roubini Double Dip Recession a Possibility Top
The world economy still risks a double-dip recession if oil prices rise toward $100 per barrel and if huge U.S. government debts frighten investors, Nouriel Roubini , professor of economics and chairman of RGE Monitor, told CNBC. "There is a risk, a low probability for a double dip" Nouriel Roubini said "Asset prices should go higher, the question is too much, too soon, too high? In my view there is the risk of a correction," "I can still see downside risks for financial institutions," he added "It could lead to a double dip. I'm not saying it's going to happen but it's a risk," "I see weak economic growth, weak consumption, even if there will be a recovery." Nouriel Roubini discussses the economy with the other Dr Doom Marc Faber

Where to Invest in this Global Economy Nouriel Roubini Top
In an article at Forbes Nouriel Roubini analyzed in details the best places in the world where to invest , despite the global recession , some bright spot on the global economy are still here and there What do these countries have in common? One major theme is that they tended to have lower financial vulnerabilities due to more restrictive regulation and less developed financial market Nouriel Roubini wrote and he went on analyzing the economies of different countries from China to India to South America Europe Asia the middle east and so on and so forth .... Read the entire article here

Downside Risk for Commodity Prices says Nouriel Roubini Top
Professors Nouriel Roubini of New York University co founder and chairman of RGE says the recession will continue to the end of the year , The commodities prices will surprise in the downside because of the slow recovery of the advanced economies , China's stockpiling of commodities may come to a halt or slow down "My concern is that China might have accumulated an inventory of commodities that is probably excessive to the growth of its economy," he told delegates, adding that the recession would "continue to the end of the year".says Roubini

Nouriel Roubini Says Commodity Prices May Rise in 2010 Top
In a recent interview with Bloomberg Nouriel Roubini said "Commodity prices may extend their rally in 2010 as the global recession abates " Nouriel Roubini also said at the Diggers and Dealers mining conference in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia that “As the global economy goes toward growth as opposed to a recession, you are going to see further increases in commodity prices especially next year,” “There is now potentially light at the end of the tunnel.” Nouriel Roubini is a New York University economist who predicted the financial crisis he is often nicknamed Doctor Doom by the media

Nouriel Roubini U.S. Recovery May Need Further Stimulus Top
Nouriel Roubini in an interview with Bloomberg on July 16 said that a second stimulus package of as much as $250 billion may be needed sometime early next year, particularly if unemployment goes "well above 10 percent by the end of the year." Nouriel Roubini also nicknamed Dr Doom is a New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis Roubini, was speaking from New York, and also discusses the outlook for emerging market economies and a potential bankruptcy of CIT Group other topics were China Asia emerging markerts inflation the dollar and more...