Have we reached the bottom of house price drop??

nickj_2

i'm sure the only reason that hp's may have bottomed is due to the fact that the interest rates are so low - they will not stay low forever , i think we still have a lot further to go - the interest rates are just papering over the cracks

Cat695

Its a short term fix.....people are still losing jobs and companies are still losing profits (nokia 90% down) so I don't think anything is going to be good for a longtime yet.

DaveyDave_3

There is no chance that we are at the bottom. The upwards blip in the Nationwide figures is exactly that. I'd expect more interest in the market at this time of year. The overall trend is still very much downwards and the mid-term market is like a superttanker - it'll take ages for there to be an established upwards trend in prices IMO. In the last recession, it took 10 years for the HPs to recover and we're only 18 months into this one, so I'd just sit back and watch the fun. There'll be a year or two of signficant falls IMO to go - probably a good 20% further

the_ash_and_the_oak

if the bottom is in the next 6 months will be interesting to see if that bottom is resiliant enough to withstand the higher interest rates many seem to think are on the horizon

HappySad

Thanks everyone for your comments. I am looking to purchase next year so for me I would like the price to freeze or go down further.

I personally agree with the thought that it will go down further based on what you have all said. In the last recession it seems that everyone was selling and no one buying.

There is a back log of property that people are not selling because there are waiting for prices to go up. When there people eventually come to sale then their effect on mass will keep house prices down.

Also I have been asking around and most people are being effected by the recession. Shops are closing down & not being replaced by new shops. People are loosing their jobs. People are having to do more work to keep their jobs. Builders are finding it hard to get work........etc. If no one has the money as they are loosing work & credit crunch then it must mean that house prices are set to go down further.

Thanks Entertainer about my weight loss. It has been really hard & I have taken 18months to do it.

Pobby

Topov wrote: »

No, the market has another 68% to drop to allow carolt and the other losers to afford a house. keep ramping it down boys youll get there in the end.

Why exactly are these people losers?

harryhound

StevieJ wrote: »

My clan go for the 13.7% down from peak as per the index used by the FT (the one that includes all the data:D)

http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/FTHPI%20News%20Release%20March%2009.pdf

A lagging indicator by about 5 months and it still excludes "commercial and auction" sales BUT still more realistic than most..

Any body got any news about the number of transactions stuck in Q's ?

SingleSue

Pobby wrote: »

Why exactly are these people losers?

Because he/she likes to call anyone who has an alternative view to him/herself a loser.

benchin440

HappySad wrote: »

There is a back log of property that people are not selling because there are waiting for prices to go up. When there people eventually come to sale then their effect on mass will keep house prices down.

Don't forget many of those sellers will also be buyers to.

BTW Well done on the weight loss :T

sabretoothtigger

The price might have bottomed out but the value could keep on falling, I think we will have to increasingly separate the two when judging in the future

Anyway its too early still I expect, Generali pointed out that the rate of change is maybe bottoming out but that would just indicate an end to the beginning of the recession.

I presume the next recession stage would be a long consolidation & market adjustment to just what value these houses should be really so 2 or 3% falls for some years or if you really think so then also some 2 or 3% rises over years but either way no drastic rise in value though maybe prices will rocket if inflation appears

So I agree on 2009 being a turn around but only to the next stage of the recession. If the sharp fall took some months then the next stage could take 5x as long I think, maybe we could judge by looking at 1990.
If London had the sharpest fall then we could be optimistic sooner about London and so on, this is my theory