UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

uk_steve

tradetime wrote: »

It was, may still be a trick MM's used, to buy, you'd have Goldman say wants 500,000 CSCO, but doesn't want to pay over a certain price and it's above that now, so he'll come in low down on the ask with a big limit sell order, buyers will see this and will back off the buy side, and price stalls, sellers will also see this, everybody thinks GS has a big position to sell and the price will drop so they dive in ahead of him selling at a lower limit, meanwhile he's buying at market on the other side, once he's filled, he cancels the sell order, and appears with a limit on the buy side, everybody realizes the con, he's really a big buyer (of course, he's already filled, his order is only on the buyside to announce the fact and the stock takes off, how well that works nowadays I don't know, long time since I bothered daytrading individual stocks

tricks of the game

thats made me think a bit :-)

sabretoothtigger

Stevie I think dshort.com does bear market charts daily so probably the best. I'll post up here if I find anything showing the whole secular bear/bull thing


Lloyds apparently isnt strong enough to leave the government APS nest yet, not sure if that means no rights now.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/6203672/Lloyds-scheme-fails-FSA-stress-tests.html



Cape shares were up by 10% yesterday and 17% today, hell of a jump and right through resistance at 225 which had made me think twice about them personally

Apparently its a case of debt reversal and good prospects serving resource companies. They are on a forecast PE of only 7 still

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090916-702811.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/6199157/Cape-shares-are-up-250pc--but-they-are-still-a-buy.html

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

http://Yahoo.com shows some level 2 info on USA stocks and ETF I think

this stupid link still ends up at the uk site, it has to be the american site for the real time quote with order book info and you need to be signed into a yahoo email account to get the extra info
http://finance.yahoo.com


Can anyone tell me if this link http://www.freestockcharts.com/ works for them or not, I wonder if they restricted the site at all


Someone who agrees with me, india > china http://seekingalpha.com/article/161822-harry-dent-india-a-better-long-term-bet-than-china?source=email

ricll

GKP had a RNS this morning, no drilling update just yet but good news nevertheless, I guess sometimes the absence of bad news in a RNS can be good news in itself specially when drilling oil in Kurdistan. SP going back to the levels it reached when oil was announced few weeks ago after a retrace to 60-65p, which is good if you think that the main news hasn't arrived yet. Good buy for next weeks in my opinion even with the rise today.

sabretoothtigger

That is a nice rise, will be interesting to see how these oil stocks cope with any drop in the oil price. Overall I think they are a good prospect

The sharp rise comes with a push past any volume resistance at 70 so if that can close and hold on a weekly bar I guess its a longer term move higher


Was just reading reference to 200 day moving average predictions for the FTSE and Michael Hewson allegedly called this rally 11 months ago when he pointed out how large the variance from the norm was, 33% below 200 sma was unprecedented and it has corrected


http://www.digitallook.com/news/3014552/Is_this_FTSE_bounce_too_much_too_quickly.html?&username=sabrehbos&ac=211355&tc=

The 200 day moving average has generally been a good trend following indicator throughout history for the most major indices and has been a reliable indicator of long term trend both up and down. In all that time when we have had a major decline in the blue chip index, apart from October 1987, we have never seen the price move more than 25% away from its 200 day moving average until now.

In September 2001 it got as far as 23% hitting a low of 4219.7 after 9/11 but it was able to recover about 900 points fairly quickly. In July 2002 it got as far as 25% hitting a low of 3610.7 before rallying nearly 600 points and then in September 2002 it declined 23% away before again rallying 500 points and then drifting slowly lower into 2003 before bottoming out in March that year.

Unfortunately that article is 11 months old and his latest one is a paid to view one so I can only guess what he says but we're above the 200 sma now obviously.

I think the 200sma is 4300? Is that right, seems to vary some. So that puts us 20% above the average and near the top of this move by his reckoning.
However its a long term call and he was 'wrong' for sometime between october and march


It fits in with my opinion that the strength appears to be in the fallback. If we never fall back and it just keeps rising, that is unstable and we're constantly at the top of range like an engine run to the top of its rev counter rather then changing gear steadily

uk_steve

im seeing stocks moving back slightly this week

not big but slowely


i think its healthy for the longer growth personly

cloud_dog

racingsantasdeer wrote: »

been watching this thread for weeks - isnt it about time its renamed "ramblings of a few". Lock it for gods sake .

So yout think its ramblings for a few and it should be locked and yet, you've been reading it for weeks........... Hmmm sounds like you need to re-assess things.

Oh, oh, oh, I know........ Why not just don't read it :rotfl:

uk_steve

racingsantasdeer wrote: »

been watching this thread for weeks - isnt it about time its renamed "ramblings of a few". Lock it for gods sake .

personly i dont care as long my fellow thread members and myself learn from each other and hopefully do well in the mean time;)


****Thats more important****

looking at this thread it its a real snap shot how we feel about the stock market on the date of post

FATHEROFTWO_2

I agree this is an excellent thread that gives a good snapshot of market views.

I posted on the other "reviewing my investments"

Im sitting on a 10 percent profit on my overall investmenst and am up 25 perecent plus since the bottom of the market.

What do I do now I ask myself?

My gut feeling is the market is going to fall/crash slump within the next few months perhaps november/december (6 months before the election)

My portfolio is badly needing rebalanced but Im reluctant to meddle with something that is making so much daily gains.
I am a cautious investor but my porfolio consisting of about 13 funds are acting like a volitile share currently in a bull trend.

I have two funds which overlap other funds I have namely so they are surplus to requirements but they are performing extremely well over the short term namely
Invesco perp mthly inc plus
and
Artemis global growth.

If I sell both it will effectively return my 10 percent profit to cash in my portfolio and leave me with my specified asset allocation.

I am now overweight in Europe namely
Neptune european opps which I plan to reduce .

All in if I sell both of the first two funds and reduce my European fund and buy some more corporate bonds then it will rebalance my portfolio and realise a 10 percent profit which I could hold in cash awaiting the forecasted market correction and at this point I would buy back in small amounts equally to rebalance.

Now with reference to the above.What are the views of the short term market given there are so many mixed opinions.

Is the market going to flatten.... pull back a bit or have a big market correction.?

And when do viewers think this will happen?

StevieJ

cloud_dog wrote: »

So yout think its ramblings for a few and it should be locked and yet, you've been reading it for weeks........... Hmmm sounds like you need to re-assess things.

Oh, oh, oh, I know........ Why not just don't read it :rotfl:

The again he/she may be just one those little characters that hide under bridges

sabretoothtigger

Dont funds have initial fees of 5% to them.

Where as shares we're often talking 1% commission cost so switching things about is less of a negative short term.

I think if you have managed funds you have to trust their judgement to some extent. Neptune might be better at that then most, I think they are designed to short negative movements, not sure but anyway I dont especially think a big fall is coming because its too expected and also it needs the markets to be vastly overvalued.

Estimate the big companies 2010 earnings and you have the answer, HSBC is over 20 PE apparently but maybe thats correct