UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tradetime

Yup that looks good, couple of nice little flags identified there, nice little pop in volume as it stepped above that resistance line, looks like a close in line with the last intraday swing high. Silver was trading down early in US on Friday, but stepped above the gain line halfway through the day, so there might be some up on Monday for FRES.
Quite a lot of money has moved into the precious metals in the last couple of sessions. FRES looks like it was a monster stock to pick up for anyone who recognised its potential early.

I'm also told this is seasonally good time for precious metals and their miners, can't remember where I read that though.

sabretoothtigger

I wish I had considered the miners start of this year but didnt really figure on their worth and what it was connected to so how could I know they'd rise so well. Im trying to diversify more now

Watching Ciu, Cape is an oil and gas resources services company and maybe very undervalued for some reason, seems a good prospect but just looking

Haven't bought or sold anything this week, my longer terms are OK, but will be looking over the next few weeks

I bought small amounts of shares I previously mentioned but nothing big, Im pretty diversified now I figure. Sold some banking shares as I figure they are pretty highly valued comparatively.
Monday should see a positive ftse I think and maybe good for taking profits before usa opens on tuesday and sets the mood for the week or month even

I bought into shares where the majority of volume in shares traded seemed to be below the current price, so trying to estimate a share still in demand and/or consolidating

Like for Cape this shows up quite well, the price fell back from the big red bars on the side showing higher volume

If it works Im willing to use it, the main decision is still whether the actual company is good long term of course but this just helps me make up my mind of its value prospects because Ive no idea this market will go up or down this month.
I will still estimate 4500 for ftse year end though







Banks and bonds vs EU -
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article6822830.ece

Imagine Lloyds offered a bond that paid a fixed 6% a year until 2015, when your capital could be repaid in full. How much would you expect to pay for that level of return, given Bank rate is just 0.5%? Above or below the bond’s face value? Many income seekers would probably be willing to pay more in the current climate.
In fact, this investment is trading at just 43p in the £1. That gives you a yield (income as a proportion of the current price) of nearly 14%.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/savings/article6822928.ece


SFR - 'built the Wimbledon roof' - high yield, price action doesnt have them looking especially likely to rise but ex div is end of this month and just seems like a reasonable prospect in their new building techniques.
Possible export/international development share? worth watching
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/keyDevelopments?rpc=66&symbol=SFR.L&timestamp=20090325070000

cloud_dog

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/savings/article6822928.ece

STT, did you ever 'get in to' bonds?

sabretoothtigger

Im not a bond type of guy really, especially not now. The only ones I would be tempted on were standard chartered when they had over 10% yield apparently, good company with good prospects and a high enough tide mark to survive inflation maybe

Those lloyds ones might be a good deal for anyone used to judging those risks, short dated and half price. Probably a better bet then shares, Im not sure lloyds shares will be 220p in 2015 unless that inflation happens


Nice surge on the ftse today, allegedly all because kraft wanted to take over cadburys .
uk isnt worthless after all :j
The market was due for a bump from fridays after close action anyway

Market is heading back higher again, is this the final wave I'd pencilled in.
Im sure I remember labor day holidays featuring in a jaws movie just previous to a vicious shark attack :laugh:


Ive noticed wpp and cairn are on the cusp of maybe a movement higher or at least strength at this price

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL753856920090907?rpc=44&pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0
http://www.reuters.com/article/wtUSInvestingNews/idUSHKG3095920090907


Went over cape again, read a bit of background and I dont think I like them now :oWill look again

What do you reckon, market to keep rising till tomorrow midday at least?

cloud_dog

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

What do you reckon, market to keep rising till tomorrow midday at least?

Came across this interview (although Au related) where the interviewee (??) mentions 15th Spet as a possible stock turning point:

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Forecast-Gold-to-touch-$1250–$1260-by-December-20780-3-1.html




EDIT: Re Bonds, perhaps it was TT who was enquiring at about the same time I was investigating?

uk_steve

i let go a few today

wich
ntg
sdy
inch
gemd
nad

made a couple of £££ as well if i look at it combined as 1 sale

seem to me it was a nice high day to sell most

---

i am hoping to buy back cheaper then what i 1st paid last week


as for my
Rbs
lloy etc

they are looking sad on there own now with the red screen he!he!

sabretoothtigger

seem to me it was a nice high day to sell most

That was my thinking just because it often seems to be the ideal setup if the market rises quite strongly just before a fall. Whipsaw action they call that I think

However theres nothing to say this isnt just another rung on the ladder I guess and we'll be at 5200 soon.
I can remember shorting the index at 5200 last autumn and worrying it would keep going up and lose me money, so I guess it wasnt even clear then though hopefully Im slightly more aware now

I sold some rex to fund some of last weeks purchases.
Its in profit and it looks like it might rise quite strongly from 270p but until it does break through this ceiling its not a certain thing so good place to sell some I think

made a couple of £££ as well if i look at it combined as 1 sale

I always have a hard time selling losing shares so sounds like a positive move in many ways so long as you still have some upside potential left


I read some talk on lloyds trying to raise funds to avoid issuing b shares of 7% yield to government. It would require another 20bn though so its not so likely.
Presently it looks like government share of lloyds would rise from 43% to 60%

uk_steve

i hear you on selling losing shares its a methord not to all

i understand ;-)

lloy is looking very fragile @ the price of today

i was tempted to let go and move on but i see what happens in the next few weeks for me

i still cant get it in my head how much the ftse is rising on a whole at the mo

mind you i am only a newbie so its understandable i surpose

i think now the goverment is back at work we should see some bomb shells

he!he! its bound to happen as well :-)


then it all comes back down to april - junes levels again so we can all buy again and wait for the next push up rally

thats my dream anyway :T

sabretoothtigger

i still cant get it in my head how much the ftse is rising on a whole at the mo

In many ways its rising exactly how it should be. Eight years ago I bought the ftse, I had missed out on the nineties rise and I thought long term at least I would do better then savings.
Flash forward to the value it holds today and its weaker then eight years ago, that is incredibley poor performance.

Thats enough to condemn this market as a waste of time really, why run a marathon underwater it would be much easier to make money in a place where stocks will generally grow.
So I closed my tracker out last year (luckily) and dont really intend to track anything but asia and growing countries in future



So I agree on one hand but on the other it should have risen past this level years ago, ftse100 should be double what it is now not struggling to justify itself with major index compenents like HSBC on 25 PE and people wondering if they can really do that well

i think now the goverment is back at work we should see some bomb shells

Congress goes back to work tomorrow I think. There is a USA fund especially set up that will only invest in markets while congress is out of session. Their reasoning is government destroys value for private investment and this is how they avoid risk. :laugh: worth a try I guess

Its not a massive fund so no big deal but they'll have sold everything they own I presume. Generally I find all these people marking caution for September is a classic contrarian signal and we wont get these big falls
What was being said last year this time

mind you i am only a newbie so its understandable i surpose

Ive been reading the markets since the eighties and held shares since early ninities and I still havent a clue what happens next so you've probably got just as much a chance as anyone.
This market is topsy turvy anyway, you might be better off for not being preconditioned & having a newbies open mind

then it all comes back down to april - junes levels again so we can all buy again and wait for the next push up rally

I think an early july rewind is possible



http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/600/allshare.png

very good article to digest chaps

"Since the beginning of the 2008, there has been an 89 percent positive correlation between the S&P 500 and the EUR/USD. This correlation has held steady in 2009 and is illustrated in the chart below. The reason why this correlation exists is because risk appetite has been the driver of the U.S. dollar over the past few years and not U.S. fundamentals. A perfect example of this was the currency market’s reaction to non-farm payrolls on Friday. Even though the number of job losses was the smallest in 12 months, the dollar sold off because the good number eased safe haven flows out of the U.S. dollar. Equities reacted as we would expect to a good number which also spurred gains in the EUR/USD."

How Dollar Could React to Stock Seasonality in Sept | Kathy Lien | FX360.com

Part of the reason why September is so bad is because some mutual funds have their fiscal year end in October and may be selling losing positions before they close their books the following month.

With gold and silver having just broken-out above their summer trading ranges (the weakest season of the year for the precious metals market), precious metals appear poised for spectacular runs this fall, as I suggested a month ago (see “Two short-term scenarios for Gold Market”)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/159962-china-urges-citizens-to-buy-gold-and-silver?source=article_sb_popular

uk_steve

thank you and i will take that on board what you said above


ive always like to learn me :-)