UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

turbobob

kittie wrote: »

short closing turbobob

Sorry kittie could you explain?

tonygee_3

Tradetime,Im not after a heated debate,just curious how you chartists see the next few weeks/months pan out.
For the record,I use basic charts to observe trading ranges etc but am sceptical of over studying the minutia.

tonygee_3

Im seeing a plateauing/cooling and expect a 500 (FTSE)point drop to a more sensible level

bendix

tonygee wrote: »

Im seeing a plateauing/cooling and expect a 500 (FTSE)point drop to a more sensible level

Not me. I think the market has found a support level around 4600 and will hover between there and 4900 for the rest of the year, breaking out next year.

It seems to me that each day different forces are at play to prevent a substantial slide. One day we see the resources stocks surging. The next we see money come out of them and head back into the defensives which, because of their overweight nature, hold the index up. Today, a two day $30 surge in gold prices is supporting the miners like Lonmin, Rangold, Fresnillo etc.

There is no clear pattern emerging in either direction.

sabretoothtigger

My only prediction is that when the market slows or flattens, it loses its momentum. All the fast money leaves stocks to stand by themselves and maybe they will.
Often there is an arc to every move so I think we're flat right now thats all, I dont know where it goes really.


The Arc, behold! - http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=21176027&postcount=72



The index is about oil and banks. If either suffers in its prospects, it should bring us downwards.
Miners are in there but I dont reckon they can stop a drop, they rely on the idea of V shape recovery also in the main (gold is minor)

Top 10 sectors

Oil & Gas Producers 17.43%
Banks 13.26%
Mining 9.74%
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 7.77%
Mobile Telecommunications 4.79%
Tobacco 3.89%
Support Services 3.08%
Food & Drug Retailers 3.00%
Beverages 2.92%
Equity Investment Instruments 2.65%

http://www.h-l.co.uk/funds/security_details/sedol/0103653


Shanghai is looking like a turn around 3 days in a row but if this is a bigger move that doesnt stop the bear signal.
Last summer we entered a 20% drop or bear market and it was a good time to buy for a couple of months before it resumed

Everything that fell previous days is rising today so its a typical reversal, it doesnt mean we arent still in a downtrend though.

I'll look later for a more solid prediction as monday is a labor day that makes tomorrow important

tonygee_3

PTEC announces excellent results,think price will climb once dust settles
CRND biggest climber on allshare today +20%

sabretoothtigger

ECB announcement at 13:30 was apparently not greatly welcomed?

or maybe it was this

US Jobless Claims -4K To 570K In Aug 29 Wk; Survey -5K(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
September 03, 2009 08:30 ET (12:30 GMT)

US Aug 22 Week Continuing Claims +92K to 6,234,000(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
September 03, 2009 08:30 ET (12:30 GMT)

PTEC is up a quarter since bouncing off that 280 price level, thats pretty good already


Well done on CRND, you got an eye for these things obviously

tradetime

tonygee wrote: »

Tradetime,Im not after a heated debate,just curious how you chartists see the next few weeks/months pan out.
For the record,I use basic charts to observe trading ranges etc but am sceptical of over studying the minutia.

Hi tonygee, I didn't think you were, that was more a general comment, not directed at any individual, a lot of people lurk on boards waiting for a post on their favorite "debating" topic to respond to. Trading given the failure rate is obviously often a hotly debated topic, and is one of the reasons I don't bother much with trading specific forums, a lot of angry disillusioned people hang out there.
You on the other hand post here regularly, and seem to be enjoying success, so whether you were a TA follower or not I imagine you have better things to do with your time than get into heated debates about it

I don't really pay much attention to the UK, I trade primarily US futures and ETF's, and DAX futures. My timeframe is predominantly short term as I make most of my profits from daytrading the futures.

That said, if you believe US markets lead the way, then I posted some thoughts a few days ago here.
Chartwise the DAX and major US Indices have broken a short term uptrend in force since early - mid July.and broken below their respective 20 day simple moving averages. S&P longer term support comes in currently in the 980-985 area, where it meets the primary rising trendline from the March low, this also corresponds with the last minor swing low on the 17th of this month just below @978, rising at about 2 points per day to intersect is the 50 day moving average, currently @ 967. Assuming the projection of money on the sidelines, and the degree of under investment by funds is accurate, I would expect, if this slide continues, the broad market to find support at this level for one final attempt at a leg higher, first target 1048, second target and final destination 1100 - 1120 ie, about a 10-12% rise from current levels.

The US is currently heading into a major holiday weekend off the back of one of the thinest trading periods of the year, so it is difficult to gauge the validity of the current counter trend move, often the week leading into a holiday has a fake reversal, thus we may have completed this move already. Either way I expect a return to the upside over the coming days.

tonygee_3

I thought we may have peaked 4950 ish and now going down,but you suggest a 10% bounce yet before falling.Either way were in the same camp.Cant believe the naivity of people who think its just a one way ticket upwards.After the biggest crisis since 30's???

tradetime

tonygee wrote: »

I thought we may have peaked 4950 ish and now going down,but you suggest a 10% bounce yet before falling.Either way were in the same camp.Cant believe the naivity of people who think its just a one way ticket upwards.After the biggest crisis since 30's???

As I'm sure you can guess, that's not impossible either I can only go by my interpretation of the technicals, and that interpretation of course can be wrong, I don't think the possible 10% upside I expect is worth chasing for anyone other than short term traders as I believe the potential risks outweigh the rewards. The further out one predicts, the greater the margin of error.

People generally have become more confident and complacent recently now that the "end of the world as we know it" seems to be off the table. It is interesting to note that we have had a few days now where reasonably good economic data (by current standards) has been sold into, most noticeably on Tuesday where the futures ran us up into the 10am numbers which revealed a manufacturing number that not only beat expectations, but indicated expansion for the first time, and also a big uptick in pending home sales. That suggests to me that the so called "smart money" may be slipping quietly out of the back exit.