UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

StevieJ

It seems to me that the markets are fairly resilient at these levels, could all change though. I suppose once we get past Sept and Oct we may see a push upwards, after all as each month passes we are step nearer the real end of the global recession.

sabretoothtigger

The clue is in the company values themselves really I guess. If companies are fairly valued and can pay out the yields investors suppose then theres no problem
The banks all fell because they couldnt give out the money promised any more. Citi went from 60c divi to 1c

Even worse was a desperate queue of cash calls and rights issues. HBOS needed to reacquire like 200bn in the course of one year hence we saw the markets spooked like a horse losing its blinkers.

If theres no blinkers, if they can pay the dividends presumed and if no further fund raising occurs then I guess we have no big crash. The next stage of this is that the storm moves from companies onto currencies and government risk allegedly

[FONT=verdana,arial][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;]The EUR/JPY is up 0.27% and the EUR/USD up 0.2%.

Ultimately, currency markets can be jittery pre Non Farm Payrolls and this morning is no exception. We've seen the beginnings of positive movements for the EUR/JPY and these early trends could grow exponentially if there is a bullish job number at 12.30 GMT. [/FONT][/FONT]

Equates to usa optimism premarket


Fresnilo always seems to be doing amazing every time I look. It falls back while Im not really following it, I see it briefly at a reasonable price and then it shoots back up.
Seen it at 430, 550 and 600 now and each time its been a good time to actually rebuy the shares for a while.

A high silver price needs demand from the west for its currency worth and demand from the east for industrial, if both occur in tandem it would maybe double this shareprice I reckon.

At some point the rosy picture of recovery will falter. Maybe some governments start raising their interest rates to unwind special measures and that will be enough to unbalance currency, americas 0.1% cant give much of a fight

Rogers says a weak exchange rate is the same as inflation which means high commodity prices and companies which rely on those prices suffering in their prospects. That'd put pressure on those dividends and share valuations I guess

cloud_dog

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Fresnilo always seems to be doing amazing every time I look. It falls back while Im not really following it, I see it briefly at a reasonable price and then it shoots back up.
Seen it at 430, 550 and 600 now and each time its been a good time to actually rebuy the shares for a while.

FRES has been good to me (managed to bag some around the £1 mark, although sold 50% of them a while ago).

BUT........ hasn't the SP chart just broken out (to the upside) of its 'flag' formation (over the last 3 months).

Although my TA skills are somewhat limited I hope this signals another rise (although will need more volumn to break past the 740p resistance).

sabretoothtigger

Anything above mid five hundred is strong. I dont know about flags exactly but I guess maybe that is a breakout. Otherwise it looks to be in a price channel just looking at it quickly

[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]Yield:
[/FONT][FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]0.96%[/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]P/E Ratio:
[/FONT][FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]59.17[/FONT]

Its not the value stock it once was

The 7 stocks featured here have each been paying a dividend for over 100 years, have raised dividends annually for at least the last quarter centurt and offer direct-purchase plans

http://www.thestockadvisors.com/content/view/4067/33/

uk_steve

Hi gang

anybody have a good week buying and selling?


not a lot going on with me really


I doubled my holding on WICH average price is now 10.20p a Share

WMH was purchased on my limit order at 1.75 a share on my ISA allowance account (my 1st share in an ISA)


anyway have a good weekend all;)

turbobob

cloud_dog wrote: »

FRES has been good to me (managed to bag some around the £1 mark, although sold 50% of them a while ago).

BUT........ hasn't the SP chart just broken out (to the upside) of its 'flag' formation (over the last 3 months).

Although my TA skills are somewhat limited I hope this signals another rise (although will need more volumn to break past the 740p resistance).

FRES at £1 was a good buy I bought ENRC cheaply in December but sold too soon (still made a tidy % though).

Looking at FRES I see what you mean but I don't think its a valid flag pattern. They are typically only valid over short periods maybe a few weeks. Anyway regardless of pattern, like you said I think increases of volume on the breakout from a pattern or channel increase its chances of success, as it shows conviction behind the move. This site has a lot of good info on patterns if you are interested, including research into how successful each one has been historically - http://thepatternsite.com/visualcpindex.html

Haven't bought or sold anything this week, my longer terms are OK, but will be looking over the next few weeks

cloud_dog

turbobob wrote: »

.....This site has a lot of good info on patterns if you are interested, including research into how successful each one has been historically - http://thepatternsite.com/visualcpindex.html

I've been using the below site:

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis

And just noticed on their explanation for a 'flag' that....
"Ideally, these patterns will form between 1 and 4 weeks. Once a flag becomes more than 12 weeks old, it would be classified as a rectangle. A pennant more than 12 weeks old would turn into a symmetrical triangle. The reliability of patterns that fall between 8 and 12 weeks is debatable."
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:flag_pennant_continu

So, does it make it a symetrical triangle:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle
In which case a similar rise could be on the cards. Stick my neck out and say it may go to 810(ish)

turbobob wrote: »

Haven't bought or sold anything this week, my longer terms are OK, but will be looking over the next few weeks

Haven't sold anything for a while - the damn stuff keeps going up :beer: Bought some more CEY and WTN recently. Am kicking myself for not getting some more POG though :mad:

Edit - OFF TOPIC. A while ago I was researching for a fund/ETF focussed on junior miners, well........... found out that the same people / person running the Junior Oil Fund is launching a Junior Miners fund (7th Sept) so, anyone else out there into resources/PMs may want to monitor / review this. I can see some of my OH SIPP and daughters CTF going in there but not sure on timing yet.
http://www.h-l.co.uk/funds/Fund-management-news/articles/4922?pr=article&type=hl

sabretoothtigger

PTEC recommended as a hold

Gambling software group Playtech posted interim results that were a touch higher than expectations – but these expectations had been lower following a profit warning. Nevertheless, it was still a good result. However, there are still issues that need to be addressed.

Importantly, the company said it planned to strengthen its corporate governance and improve communication with shareholders and analysts. This is good news. But, after the company shocked the market earlier this year with a profit warning that left management's reputation in tatters – is it enough?

The company provides software and managed services for online gaming platforms. It recently struck a deal with William Hill relating to its online assets. As a result, Playtech now owns 29pc of William Hill Online (WHO).

PartyGaming shares, for example, are trading on a December 2009 earnings multiple of 17.4 times, 888 Holdings is trading on a multiple of 13.8 times, with Playtech lagging behind on 10.4 times.



Questor is convinced that if this credibility issue with Playtech's management had not arisen, the share would be trading on a significantly higher rating. This is because the prospects for the WHO venture are actually very good, although there are still some doubters around.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/6142395/Playtech-worth-gamble-but-is-a-hold-for-now.html

tradetime

turbobob wrote: »

Looking at FRES I see what you mean but I don't think its a valid flag pattern. They are typically only valid over short periods maybe a few weeks. Anyway regardless of pattern, like you said I think increases of volume on the breakout from a pattern or channel increase its chances of success, as it shows conviction behind the move. This site has a lot of good info on patterns if you are interested, including research into how successful each one has been historically - http://thepatternsite.com/visualcpindex.html

Haven't bought or sold anything this week, my longer terms are OK, but will be looking over the next few weeks

Likewise, see what you are looking at, for me it's not a flag,(not any more) too much range within it over too long a period, it started as a flag, but a flag should be fairly tight consolidation> Timeframe is irrelevant, this would have been, and in fact imo was early on a weekly flag
On this chart if you can see it, the first 6 bars that decline from the top were a flag, after that it kind of morphs into a triangle, there was an attempt at a breakout from the flag, but it seems to have failed near the highs of the pole the suggestion is still bullish (so not so bad news) just flags tend to wind tight quickly and deliver quickly. Can't work out price levels for breakout and failure of the triangle as I don't have subscription to UK exchanges on my charting package, but roughly disaster looks like a break below 443 however the triangle looks like it may fail much closer to 557

turbobob

Heres a chart of FRES I did with one interpretation of the triangle on it. I'm not sure if this is exactly "right" Doing it on a weekly chart would be another angle you could look at (always worth looking at different timescales)

http://i30.tinypic.com/2uiut1z.jpg