UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tradetime

In theory oil and gas should move together imo. Thats really why I mentioned, they havent done since feb but all times previous I believe they most likely have and it might turn soon I figure but meanwhile it would be like a man with one leg on a boat and one on shore, likely to get wet quite easily

Over the long term, perhaps, whilst I may trade either on occasion in the very short term, I do not know the dynamics of either other than what I read in the popular media or on the internet.
If you are of the view that all prices are driven by supply and demand in the long run, then the declining supply of oil (however steep or shallow you believe that to be) and the recent massive increases of Nat Gas viz a viz the shale plays would probably suggest to me that the long standing ratio needs adjustment. But who knows, just know Nat Gas is not a trade for widows and orphans

As a stock play (this is not a recommendation btw, as I have no idea where this stock is relative to where one might think it should be) there is First Trust FCG as I say, haven't traded it, don't, nor have I ever owned it, but I have considered it in the past.
The dude who write the blog, whilst he seems like a decent guy, and may be a decent trader, has been shorting the S&P since April, that tells me he likes to pick tops and prefers to trade opinion even in the face of the market behaving contrary, now if you have great timing, and or deep pockets you can make money that way, but it's a very hard way to go about it.

The Nat Gas / Crude trade he is proposing is an opinion, that crude price is unjustified and Nat Gas is way too cheap, supported by a historical ratio, with no explanation of why that ratio should exist, as such it's a top and bottom pick combined, could be the greatest trade of the year, but it could cost a lot to keep it alive.

ricll

uk_steve wrote: »

high risk is an understatement i was new and learning back then (still am) but i have settled down due to this and another which made me think oh god money down the toilet!!

but you have to learn your own way in life

as i say i am thankful it turned out ok in the end

got burnt really bad with RGM, losing about 1k already, living and learning It was possibly the stupidest deal ever made in the history of the London Stock Exchange! BUT am making 5k profit on GKP which is my biggest investment :beer: and the future on this one seems to be bright.

tonygee_3

Avoid these tiny stocks,take profits if you can,most are loss making,hyped up vehicles to take your cash.

tonygee_3

Enjoying watching my remaining holdings RISE but wouldnt want to get into anything at these levels.
HSBC is higher now than before the Credit Crunch began!!!
Infact its prob higher than its EVER been(considering the dilution of RI)
And its reduced its DIV.

sabretoothtigger

The new shares thing does confuse things. Im not sure whether we divide the current price by the rights issue ratio to translate it to the previous price for comparison or does it work differently. The company does have more cash now after all but thats a sentiment change isnt it

I was looking at hsbc a bit but they are apparently 20 PE. They could be good still if the usa debt loss is over but there is probably better choices really

HSBC makes up alot of the ftse so if they are overvalued then so is a fair bit of the index value I guess

This Week in Review

News Roundup

The week ended positively despite negativity caused by the Chinese stock market briefly entering a ‘bear market.’ This fall was largely due to the China Banking Regulatory Commission issuing a draft rule change requiring banks to reduce record lending which has fuelled Chinese stock prices this year. Analysts predict this will help align Chinese stock prices with the stock prices of other major economies worldwide. Currently the Chinese stock market is trading at 31.7 times reported earnings compared to 18.9 for the S&P 500 constituents.

The negativity from China overshadowed the preliminary GDP data from Japan, which came in at 0.9% for the second quarter.

Better than expected US existing home sales helped the major US indices finish in positive territory for the week. However, not all economic news was positive in the US, as unemployment claims for the week came in at 576k, worse than the forecasted 548k.

European economic data continued to impress following the previous weeks positive GDP figures for France and Germany. Both German ZEW economic sentiment and Flash PMI reported better than forecast results.

Sterling weakened on Wednesday when the MPC minutes were released showing Mervyn King voted to pump £75billion into the quantitative easing programme instead of the £50billion which was announced. This sent a signal to the market that more funds may still be introduced to the programme.

The Week Ahead

All eyes will be on the German Ifo Business Climate figure on Wednesday as this has become a strong indicator for traders. CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales and Core Durable Goods Orders will also be watched closely be traders.

So thats reported earnings PE and there is also forecast earnings PE 2010 and 2011 which could vary dramatically and the actual price is forward looking




Two different charts for Lloyds, one is adjusted for new shares or is it just plain wrong :laugh:

wouldnt want to get into anything at these levels.

never say never! Theres always something cheap out there in theory. Some company thats been developing something amazing and its only just starting to make headway.
I think in a bear market and also this booming bust type market we have now, it just gets difficult to see whats really worth the money. Take it on as a challenge

tonygee_3

CAL caught my eye,down 60% on OO,and could present an opportunity if timed well,But looks to be struggling,not for faint hearted
Still like gambling sector(hold 888,LAD & PTEC)could go further if updates please over next few days

malik999

tonygee wrote: »

CAL caught my eye,down 60% on OO,and could present an opportunity if timed well,But looks to be struggling,not for faint hearted
Still like gambling sector(hold 888,LAD & PTEC)could go further if updates please over next few days

There is low risk in any of those stocks imo. Overtime that portfolio will rise which is the only question you have to ask yourself. These are extraordinary times.
Here is a record of todays prices:
CAL - 40
888 - 89
LAD - 189
PTEC - 303

tonygee_3

Traditionally MEDIA does very well out of recession, but TNI is 6 times its bottom
I HOLD MONY which has at last taken off,partly due I think to the special div (mid SEPT)but has only doubled.
YELL is difficult to assess due to massive debts
JPR I also HOLD has become a talking share but is struggling and I will JUMP as soon as decent profit realised

sabretoothtigger

WPP has been doing ok recently, results soon. One of the best performing ftse100 stocks recently I think
I think they may fall back due to reliance on western advertising budgets (lots of cost cutting), not sure though because of plenty of demand for the stock regardless of that presently.

They are well managed I think and aim to be international.


Dow 30 div yields

tonygee_3

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

never say never! Theres always something cheap out there in theory. Some company thats been developing something amazing and its only just starting to make headway.
I think in a bear market and also this booming bust type market we have now, it just gets difficult to see whats really worth the money. Take it on as a challenge

Dont get me wrong theres plenty of cheap stocks(compared to what they will be in 15 years time)
Half (cyclicals)are becoming overvalued the remaining(defensives) are unloved, offer limited gains ,so seems no point in buying yet