UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

turbobob

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Carrot on a stick? $SPX still below 2009 start when measured against price of gold

Interesting. So would you say that is bullish for equities? What's the relationship been over the longer term?

malik999 wrote:

Take your pick. There is going to be a lot of millionnaires made from this recent crash.

Amen to that :beer:

tradetime

UNG, usa natural gas is at its lowest for years. It is a commodity, it can be used in power stations, people homes even cars so why would should it become cheaper as oil reaches a new high for the year
If everything else is expensive it seems worth some consideration

Be very cautious with UNG, the product is one of many at the center of the recent CFTC investigations into market speculations causing adverse volatility, as a result for soem time now UNG has not been issuing new shares, if you check the NAV you will find as of Friday it should be trading @ $9.94, but rather trades around $11 a massive 15% premium
The other problem with Nat Gas for a trade is a massive contango, which dwarfs even the Crude contango at it's peak.

[Deleted User]

coincidence: I am thinking of looking at some bonds. Maybe/maybe not. I haven`t done my research yet

a list
http://www.bondscape.net/feed.html

[Deleted User]

imo ukx 4800 may be coming in as support and with that view I am now again fully invested but in the solid stocks as from this am

dyor of course

StevieJ

What about a short oil - long gas play as suggested here.

The ratio of crude oil to natural gas futures prices on the NYMEX reached its highest level in over 19 years during friday's trading session. Natural Gas is trading at lows not seen since August 14, 2002. At the current levels, the ratio between both commodities stands at 25 to 1.

http://oiltradersblog.blogspot.com/

StevieJ

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Not sure how they worked that out, I guess it falls with next years earnings potentially


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/richardfletcher/6069009/The-bulls-are-in-a-china-shop-as-this-fragile-rally-threatens-to-crash.html



http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/Tips/default/TipsOfTheWeek/article/20090508/c4beafc2-3a40-11de-be3b-00144f2af8e8/The-right-time-to-buy-Earnings.jsp

Don't know where they got 60 from, it should be around 15 with a full year of recession and the corresponding profit crashes priced in.

tradetime

StevieJ wrote: »

What about a short oil - long gas play as suggested here.

The ratio of crude oil to natural gas futures prices on the NYMEX reached its highest level in over 19 years during friday's trading session. Natural Gas is trading at lows not seen since August 14, 2002. At the current levels, the ratio between both commodities stands at 25 to 1.

http://oiltradersblog.blogspot.com/

It's a highly speculative trade to take, i have commented on that blog on the Nat Gas situation, it will obviously turn, but picking a bottom is a dangerous business, many pro's have been put out of business in the Nat Gas trade. The ratio whilst being at an extreme can become more extreme, I personally expect Nat Gas to see a $2.50 handle when the US runs out of storage capacity, my prediction of below $3 came earlier than I expected.
If however you do play it, you would be best playing it in the futures market, UNG trades @ 15% premium to the futures it tracks, they are looking for ways to get round possible CFTC position limits, if they find a viable way, even if they don't actually, and release the 1 billion new shares they have permission to release that premium will disappear almost overnight

tradetime

Remember the "Sell in May..." common belief, this market has no respect for commonly held beliefs or historical norms, I would not base any trading decisions on past ratios, not in the short term, and the contango in Nat Gas is about 10% that means even if Nat Gas stands still you will lose 10% rolling your contracts each month.

sabretoothtigger

Yea I wouldnt trade ung directly same as uso or sgg, but I presume it effects the likely valuations on various companies with stocks of natural gas and I'd be more interested in taking interest in them and participating indirectly.

Commodities are tricky stuff to deal with for various reasons anyway afaik. I really hold tiny amounts and mostly just a crb etf which has risen a bit, I was bit worried about that even since its actual worth is mostly contained in short term treasuries I think




So I own 6% natural gas allready, that'll do me Wish I owned more sugar right now tbh, highest price for 26 years? :doh:



Commoditys are definitely strange stuff to trade no doubt



The paired trade I like and I wish I had done that more over the last year in general. Anyone with a portfolio is sort of doing something similar hence the benefits I figure.
But on a individual trade basis there is danger because of all that market risk not really related to the actual base commodity theres a danger a paired trade could be doubly wrong with double the losses at least short term.

Its the kind of thing that might need deep pockets and a steel nerve or just very good timing and a stop loss I guess

In theory oil and gas should move together imo. Thats really why I mentioned, they havent done since feb but all times previous I believe they most likely have and it might turn soon I figure but meanwhile it would be like a man with one leg on a boat and one on shore, likely to get wet quite easily


So I guess what I'm really saying is while this market is booming and it seems foolish not to be invested in some way in case it really it never comes down significantly and I think thats a possibility, nominally anyway.

Better to look for whats cheap not whats already risen and BG has traded sideways for some time now, I havent really looked at it properly, I think it was tipped somewhere.
Im not sure how the usa price compares to europe, probably more expensive over here
I'll add bg to my watchlist while I ponder this stuff
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=BG.L

Don't know where they got 60 from, it should be around 15 with a full year of recession and the corresponding profit crashes priced in.

nor me, there is probably a few ways of working it out. Same with gdp debt ratios Ive seen, Im still not sure who is worse off from the uk or usa.

Interesting. So would you say that is bullish for equities? What's the relationship been over the longer term?

Longer term gold has fallen in value (against inflation, obviously not in this decade but see the chart I gave above on crb generally) and generally shares should vastly outperform gold imo. Gold doesnt do anything, its a non performing asset.
Commoditys are complicated so it can be taken a few different ways, it shows shares to me are not performing as well as perceived, compared to the dollar sp500 the upwards curve is alot flatter especially recently and closer to tapering off then appears otherwise

sabretoothtigger

Warren Buffett warns about Inflation



Warren Buffett warns that the federal government's massive deficits are creating a strong probability for inflation , in an article published this past week in the NY Times under the title "The Greenback Effect "

By WARREN E. BUFFETT
Published: August 18, 2009

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/19/opinion/19buffett.html?_r=3&hp