UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

ses6jwg

Some views for 2010:

Andrew Bell, head of research, Rensburg Sheppards Investment Management

FTSE 100 prediction: 6000 (5500)
Top share: Vodafone
Top sector: Pharmaceuticals
Top country: China, with Japan as a dark horse
Alan Steel, director, Alan Steel Asset Management

FTSE 100 prediction: 5800 (5600)
Top share: DTZ Holdings
"A share I'm buying is DTZ Holdings. They are specialists in commercial property management and basically they've got the Far East and developing countries sewn up. It's a cyclical share, and the current share price is a bargain."
Top sector: Financials
"Usually the best investment sector for a year is the bombed-out one from the previous year. So, being really brave, I plump for financials, especially banks."
Top country: Singapore
Top fund: Allianz RCM BRIC Stars
Ken Taylor, director, Mackenzie Taylor Wealth Management

FTSE 100 prediction: 5950 (4500)
Top share: AstraZeneca
Top sector: Emerging
markets
Top country: South Africa
Top fund: Jupiter International Financials
Thomas Becket, head of global investment strategy at PSigma Investment Management

FTSE 100 prediction: 5600 (new entrant)
Top share: BAE
"Solid earnings growth, overseas earnings and a good order book are all undervalued, while undue focus remains on defence spending cuts."
Top sector: Technology
"Cash-rich balance sheets, good growth prospects and plenty of M&A should support returns."
Top country: UK
"The UK market's highly defensive characteristics and reliance on overseas earnings should see it outperform in 2010."
Mike Hollings, chief investment officer at Matrix Investment Management

FTSE 100 prediction: 4200 (new entrant)
Top share: J Sainsbury
Top sector: Pharmaceuticals
Top country: Qatar
"Qatar has the highest per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in the world and the economy is set to continue benefiting from the dramatic growth in external and domestic trade. It sits on the third largest gas reserves in the world. The Index trades on a modest 12.5 times earnings (that is, the shares are priced at 12.5 times the earnings per share) which, given the long-term growth potential, seems very reasonable. To cap it all, forecast dividend yield is 5.5pc."
Mark Dampier, head of research at Hargreaves Lansdown

FTSE 100 prediction: 5750 (5000)
Top fund: Jupiter China
Top sector: Emerging Markets
"This has been my long-term favourite sector since the launch of the first emerging market funds back in the late Eighties."
Top country: China
Michelle Cracknell, strategy director at Skandia

FTSE 100 prediction: 5594 (new entrant)
Top country: "Short term, the country that provides the best return will be the one that is picked by the pundits, the returns being driven by the biggest influence of behavioural economics – herding!"
Juliet Schooling Head of research at Chelsea Financial Services

FTSE 100 prediction: 5400 (4800)
Top fund: M&G Global Basics
"I'm not optimistic about the UK economy and I think the outlook for 2010 is particularly opaque, so I would opt for a global fund, giving me exposure to other economies."
Top sector: Technology
"It's likely we will see some restocking next year, which will benefit the sector. It went into the downturn in better shape than many sectors, having already had its shake-up earlier in the decade."
Top country: Brazil
"Brazil may be an interesting place to be, with its abundance of natural resources, both soft and hard commodities, strong economic growth and growing middle class population, it looks reasonably well placed."
Julian Chillingworth, chief investment officer at Rathbone Unit Trust Management

FTSE 100 prediction: 5500 (5100)
Top share: Booker
"Debt has been reduced, and the company is taking greater market share. The overall benefits of restructuring are now coming through, although we anticipate tough competition within this space in 2010."
Top sector: Consumer defensives such as foods and beverages
Top country: Latin America
Gavin Haynes, managing director of Whitechurch Securities

FTSE 100 prediction: 5700 (new entrant)
Top share: Geared Growth shares of Jupiter Split investment trust
"The structure of the trust makes these shares a higher risk investment, but they provide geared exposure to the fund management skills of the highly regarded fund manager Philip Gibbs. And the fact Gibbs is committing a significant sum of his own money to the shares illustrates his interests to perform are aligned with investors'."
Top sector: Infrastructure
"High barriers to entry, healthy yields, sustainable growth and predictable cash flows of infrastructure projects make them attractive to investors in the current difficult economic climate."
Top country: Japan
"Having lagged in recovery in 2009, valuations look attractive and with global-leading companies in many sectors with strong trade links to Emerging Asia, I believe it could be the surprise package in 2010."

I currently hold 3 shares.

Booker

Gulf Keystone Petroleum

AMINEX

tradetime

Yes, historically silver is always more volatile than gold, updated charts of SLV on the daily and weekly. If US$ strength persists, then most commodities should come under pressure, if they don't then we're in trouble.

sabretoothtigger

I am intrigued, what did you do when you were my age?


Too bad about Microsoft, at least my parents are listening to me. :j

I dont look as MS as a negative because I didnt have much money anyway to invest. Its consistency of good judgement that is probably most profitable so I take MS parabolic share price (and fundamentals) as something to remember and I try to guess where the next chances are.
Practise is very different from theory unfortunately so Ive much to learn

There wasnt as much information back then as is easily available now. That was partly my reasoning for MS stock, gigantic potential and most people back then had no clue on the economies of scale commanded by computers.

Now its a little more obvious and the general population have the benefits of this technology (it was a new market sector, previously only big business had computers = extraordinary growth )


Technology is my first subject, so thats why I had a clear understanding and I realised most people underestimated.. So my advice would be to go with what you know best personally, the harder part is judging whether other people have misjudged potential prospects.

To get outperformance you have to be better then the market and thats rare but not impossible because the really big money is also slow and very afraid of risk.


Since your only 14 you got alot of time before you could do anything directly but you might want to predict shares for January but also 2010
http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/

I think its worth trying because then you can gauge your own perception vs the companies share price vs the market perceptions. Actually giving a dam about something you have no money in is something else but I like guessing






This guy is not even 20 and is giving successful trade tips to people with twenty years more experience then him so nothing is impossible with enough focus
http://ibankcoin.com/chart_addict/







Thanks tradetime that'll be usefull. The major lower resistance coincides with the bottom of the price channel, I like when confirmation comes in so neatly

[Deleted User]

conorthomas wrote: »

I think after reading bits and pieces of this post, and following the markets everyday for a year and half, I don't believe that we will have a recovery in 2010.

The reasons are that people are still losing their jobs (apart from the 10,000 rise or something? That will almost certainly be corrected). You also have the biggest rally in history of 23%? increase in the FTSE 100. Anyone who think that can be sustained is a wholly! :P

Given that at the "dot com boom" high/the "good times" high was at 6800-7000, and we are STILL IN RECESSION, how can we be at 5400 points??? We are definitely due for a major correction anytime soon, and I think we could go as low as 4800. All of this recent rally is from people believing that everything is passed, but just remember: JOB NUMBERS. Consumers are the controllers of the economy, and if more of them are becoming jobless... Well! :rolleyes:

We have the general election as well, and of course, the inevitable VAT rise, which will hinder a recovery somewhat. Conservative will probably come into power - They are going to have to do some cuts in public spending, to combat the growing public deficit.

CONCLUSION! : No recovery in 2010 - Jobless numbers UP, Public spending cuts, election could cause some disagreements!

Thanks, from a 14 year old moneysaver :cool:

:T:T:T

Well educated and eloquent, makes a very welcome change. Wd for thinking things through. I don`t agree with you but time will tell

ses6jwg

conorthomas wrote: »

I think after reading bits and pieces of this post, and following the markets everyday for a year and half, I don't believe that we will have a recovery in 2010.

The reasons are that people are still losing their jobs (apart from the 10,000 rise or something? That will almost certainly be corrected). You also have the biggest rally in history of 23%? increase in the FTSE 100. Anyone who think that can be sustained is a wholly! :P

Given that at the "dot com boom" high/the "good times" high was at 6800-7000, and we are STILL IN RECESSION, how can we be at 5400 points??? We are definitely due for a major correction anytime soon, and I think we could go as low as 4800. All of this recent rally is from people believing that everything is passed, but just remember: JOB NUMBERS. Consumers are the controllers of the economy, and if more of them are becoming jobless... Well! :rolleyes:

We have the general election as well, and of course, the inevitable VAT rise, which will hinder a recovery somewhat. Conservative will probably come into power - They are going to have to do some cuts in public spending, to combat the growing public deficit.

CONCLUSION! : No recovery in 2010 - Jobless numbers UP, Public spending cuts, election could cause some disagreements!

Thanks, from a 14 year old moneysaver :cool:

:T:T:T

You forgot the inevitable interest rate rises and the finishing of quantitative easing, both of which are currently acting like steroids for the economy as soon as they are stopped weakness will return.

But otherwise very good :P

conorthomas

I dont look as MS as a negative because I didnt have much money anyway to invest. Its consistency of good judgement that is probably most profitable so I take MS parabolic share price (and fundamentals) as something to remember and I try to guess where the next chances are.

Interesting, because when I saw RBS at 12p, my father said I was crazy, and later laughed at me for it going down to 10p. You can guess who has the last laugh now. I do have the money, luckily, to invest, and that's what I am doing for my future.

Based on what you have said, I wouldn't be surprised if you had shares in Autonomy Corp/Sage?

Technology is my first subject, so thats why I had a clear understanding and I realised most people underestimated.. So my advice would be to go with what you know best personally, the harder part is judging whether other people have misjudged potential prospects.


I come from a retail background, so I guess that is my strong point. I am also into banking (proven with RBS). And I have used those to my advantage to make money. I usually go on the assumption that a lot of people over-react to bad news, and obviously, I took the £24bn loss in my stride. Also with Barclays, I didn't see why it was crashing, and said to my Dad that 60p is a great price. Once again, he laughed at me when they went to 50p, and I laugh at him whenever I go past them on the High Street!

I love doing what I do, and I have heard the quote somewhere (can't remember where) of: "if you can make money in a recession, then you can do anything." <<< Good news for me :T.

Since your only 14 you got alot of time before you could do anything directly but you might want to predict shares for January but also 2010
http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/

I have been told of this site before, and I will use it more often, now that a professional investor such as yourself has recognized it as a good site!

conorthomas

You forgot the inevitable interest rate rises and the finishing of quantitative easing, both of which are currently acting like steroids for the economy as soon as they are stopped weakness will return.

But otherwise very good :P

Yes, I did, upon reviewing it. To be honest, I think we should keep interest rates low and QE high until very late 2010, at the moment, the talk of it ending is crippling everyone. Thank you very much for your kind comments! =D

Well educated and eloquent, makes a very welcome change. Wd for thinking things through. I don`t agree with you but time will tell


Thank you very much. I do see why people would have a different opinion, which is why I opened my mind up to the opinions, and chose to do my GCSE article on it! Haha!

sabretoothtigger

Interesting, because when I saw RBS at 12p, my father said I was crazy,

My dad actually said I should buy. I didnt, so reverse of you. I think he was judging politics on that one since they should have gone broke I think. He has an Oxford politics degree so maybe I should have thought through that one a bit more

Based on what you have said, I wouldn't be surprised if you had shares in Autonomy Corp/Sage?

someone else here does I think. I thought about arm but they are too highly rated for me personally. Ive not looked at AU really, I tend to look like 10 times before buying and sometimes its too late then :laugh:
I have a bit of intel but should have bought amd really but it was higher risk/reward but still when they went fabless it worth a punt I thought but didnt actually buy

professional investor

Im not a pro Practise is alot harder then theory, in theory Im brilliant


Barc was a good one. I did spot that but again didnt invest, I think Stevie did so Im easily beaten on the trading front unfortunately!
Peston wrote about barclays at that time, not a bad blog to read for general market sentiment
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1433855&page=3

Masomnia

Only stock I have is Reed Elsevier; am sitting on a nice little profit after what seemed an obvious over-reaction by the market to the issuance of new shares. Thinking of hanging on for a bit, as I reckon they're well placed to come out of the recession strongly. Good exposure to America/rest of Europe, perhaps emerging markets? Could be a grower.

I keep getting tempted by bank shares every time there's a dip, but I lost on Bradford and Bingley (my first investment) and later RBS, so not too hot; then doubled my money on Lloyds TSB... none of it huge amounts, but the extreme volatility did put me off.

Thought about shorting gold a few weeks ago, but didn't have any cash to hand Going to wait to see if it spikes again next year and maybe think about putting something in.

The only decision I have definitely made is to get some exposure to emerging markets (I currently have nothing directly in that sector) so when my Student Loan comes in I'll get some in there

conorthomas

My dad actually said I should buy. I didnt, so reverse of you. I think he was judging politics on that one since they should have gone broke I think. He has an Oxford politics degree so maybe I should have thought through that one a bit more


Co-incidentally, I did actually buy the shares at 88p! I like to keep that bit quiet, and I think that's why my father suggested I shouldn't touch them, being around -90% or so! I go on my thinking with my father being a market mover in the retail sector, so I get a wee bit of an advantage over others (;

I've not looked at AU really, I tend to look like 10 times before buying and sometimes its too late then

More or less the same for me. I never usually get to the phone in time to the broker, because we discuss the share too much, and it plummets or rockets up! :P

Im not a pro Practise is alot harder then theory, in theory Im brilliant


That's good enough for me (;