UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

[Deleted User]

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Maybe the market will stay more or less where it is for the foreseeable future. Prices in general reflect an expectation of increased profitabilty in 2010. So far 64% of announced Company results in 2009 have reported a decline in profits.

I don`t ever use `maybe` and `if` as I only use TA and am objective. What will be will be

My natural emotions are sat on wrt share dealing but I do wear a tin hat and take sea sick tablets when necessary

sabretoothtigger

Theres a wedge formation on the charts that seems to show a breakout one way or the other

At this moment we're heading upwards but it really needs to open and close outside of the previous range to convince me.
Also anything that happens this time of year cant be taken too seriously as the volume is off, some sectors are below 50%

Thrugelmir

kittie wrote: »

I don`t ever use `maybe` and `if` as I only use TA and am objective. What will be will be

My natural emotions are sat on wrt share dealing but I do wear a tin hat and take sea sick tablets when necessary

I offered 'maybe' as there was a third option. The FTSE no longer offers exposure to certain sectors at all. Financials have a major bearing on its movement.

Personally I believe its no time for tracking indices better to research individual stocks.

sabretoothtigger

Questor did a quick summary and makes mention of the indexes makeup

One thing investors should bear in mind next year is that the FTSE 100 is not a reflection of the UK economy – and that's why it should do quite well. About 30pc of the index's weighing is comprised of commodity-related plays such as mining and oil and gas groups. These shares will be influenced by changes in global GDP and prospects for the dollar. The FTSE 250 is by far a clearer reflection of what is going on in UK industry. If the UK economy starts to get back onto its feet, it should be positive for this index.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/6890986/Dividends-are-the-key-to-a-sensible-investment-strategy.html


I noticed they made mention of Hochschild recently and Im wondering if it could be a similar case to fresnillo.
Iam expecting some sort of reversal or fakeout to some of the commodity prices, this might come from dollar strength. I think it'll be worth buying into and the commodity shares could all be pretty volatile for a while and maybe overshoot ie. possible bargains


It wont be possible to tell the sentiment trend till middle of January probably, much like last year.
Im looking to rebalance positions really if only for cashflow but I dont really favour selling anything I hold even if it might fall back a bit.
Like AGGREKO has risen about 20% in the last month and since being included in the ftse - tripled since march but Im pretty sure their international prospects are improving or at worst I see them as flat but the price is probably due a correction like many shares

Just for observation I noticed as a recent ftse 100 company, their price each day after this was announced was more positive then the general market and has fallen back very little at all. It seems reasonable to take an interest in these recent or prospective entrants as so many tracker funds must buy them up





All of the british banking names have cycled into lower prices recently, Im not sure they are going to rise especially but I rebought some previously sold positions now the prices are more realistic.

I think barc appears to be lower dividend then it will actually be longer term, alot of people may have taken flight at such a low payout but its quarterly now and subject to cost cutting at present.

RBS would probably be the highest risk reward, Ive got no anticipation of any dividend there so just watching for the moment. Maybe worth speculation but investment not so much

HDY had some good reports and they rose over 30%. I predicted weakness till 180p I think and they did come under 200 before this recovery so it was nice to see things pan out as I expected though I scaled in rather then gambling on buying at the bottom


Cairn, much bigger company but also in India have turned out well also. These shares are related to oil price obviously so could also fall back if dollar strength should continue to undermine the previously easy speculation in commodities, regardless of that I think they are a good bet






Since people often look back at this time of year, here is an old set of tips I came across from about 2 years ago. The ftse was falling quite badly at the time coming off 2007 highs

28th_Jan_2008 wrote:

conorthomas

I think after reading bits and pieces of this post, and following the markets everyday for a year and half, I don't believe that we will have a recovery in 2010.

The reasons are that people are still losing their jobs (apart from the 10,000 rise or something? That will almost certainly be corrected). You also have the biggest rally in history of 23%? increase in the FTSE 100. Anyone who think that can be sustained is a wholly! :P

Given that at the "dot com boom" high/the "good times" high was at 6800-7000, and we are STILL IN RECESSION, how can we be at 5400 points??? We are definitely due for a major correction anytime soon, and I think we could go as low as 4800. All of this recent rally is from people believing that everything is passed, but just remember: JOB NUMBERS. Consumers are the controllers of the economy, and if more of them are becoming jobless... Well! :rolleyes:

We have the general election as well, and of course, the inevitable VAT rise, which will hinder a recovery somewhat. Conservative will probably come into power - They are going to have to do some cuts in public spending, to combat the growing public deficit.

CONCLUSION! : No recovery in 2010 - Jobless numbers UP, Public spending cuts, election could cause some disagreements!

Thanks, from a 14 year old moneysaver :cool:

:T:T:T

sabretoothtigger

14 years old ? wow, thats pretty young to be interested in this. When I was younger I wanted to buy Microsoft shares and I was ignored because of my age, suffice to say adults dont always know better! In changing times a fresh mind can give an advantage


I think the next crisis if it comes (theres always hope and blind luck) will be in currency. So the fact the ftse isnt entirely british matters alot to whether it recovers or crashes.
I reckon the ftse could be higher in December 2010 then January because its more about world GDP not britain I think

World gdp is positive and will continue to be I think so the ftse should stay level pretty much.


AGK like I mentioned is a new ftse company to replace rentokil. AGK get most of their profits from abroad and emerging economies (or emergency situations)I think and RTO were mostly uk and europe

So if the index is dynamic itself, the currency has no set worth and even the big companies themselves are changing their bias to suit world business growth also I dont think a fixed opinion will work at this time, anything could happen.
If the uk currency halves in value then the index will go up because its not all about britain.

Being an investor has an advantage of making us a world citizen in this respect, its human to think of the FTSE100 index as ours but really its increasingly not as the uk remains in decline like you say



I would actually prefer if the index price fell this year but theres a good case for the weakest link in the chain being government bonds and plain currency


Thats my general opinion for 2010 right or wrong, confusingly but typically we may see the opposite in the nearer term





Ive yet to see the ftse split by country revenue, its always changing I guess but here is UK GDP by sector.
The biggest disparity is mining, ftse has lots, uk gdp has little (unfortunately)

tradetime

Hope everyone is having a great holiday and looking forward to a great New Year.
Markets were impressive in 2009, S&P500 has now arrived in my expected target zone of 1121 - 1158 with a close of year @ 1126. It took a lot longer than anticipated to achieve that target, possibly due to the extreme persistence of the bearish view, and the call by mainstream analysts for a correction at every bump in the road. Due to the slow progression I personally exited all broad market swing longs about a month back and have only played the intraday since. I do still hold a long position in Silver via SLV, though I have sold a portion of that into strength also, but would look to add again on any significant pullback. It should be noted there is significant resistance for silver between $19 and $21. Also a broad commodities ETF DBC and an agro fund RJA, again I scale in and out of portions of these as I see fit.

Up until recently I have pointed out the inverse correlation between the US$ and equities market as a good guide to positioning, at the time of posting I also stipulated the caveat "the relationship will break at sometime." Over the last couple of weeks that relationship has broken down with both US$ and equities rallying, though the latter not strongly, I would have expected a bit of a selloff in equities before a proper decoupling of that relationship due to the carry trade unwind effect though that hasn't materialized other than perhaps in China and Hong Kong. Perhaps this is simply a reflection of the seasonally light trading into the holiday period, but it would be wise to be cautious using the relationship as an indicator going forwards..US$ Index targets of $80, $82, and ultimately $84 are on the cards for 2010.

tradetime

There's a commodities research report from Scotiabank if anyone is interested, year end wrap up and a brief look forwards.
http://www.scotiacapital.com/English/bns_econ/bnscomod.pdf

sabretoothtigger

Silver should be more volatile then gold I think since its industrial and less monetary? Some opportunities ahead hopefully. This is not my chart but seems to draw reasonable conclusions, needs updating a bit

conorthomas

sabretoothtigger,

I am intrigued, what did you do when you were my age? I currently have shares with my father, and have made a 30% return this year alone when I brought this time last year.

Too bad about Microsoft, at least my parents are listening to me. :j