Halifax -1.9% MoM, -17.5% YoY -21.3% from peak.

Dan:_4

neas wrote: »

I have to laugh at SKY news broadcasting:



Riiiiight... so they fall at almost 2% (higher than the average drop month on month)... and the logic is its showing signs of stopping? Wouldny signs of stopping be a 0.9% then a 0.5% then a 0.2% then a 0.1% fall etc etc?

Not just a constant fall. Seriously these guys are full of doo doo..

I think there may be some truth in this.

One is up, one is down - the market is idle

Really2

Hey guys, I tell you what I will stick to reporting with real figures the next time I forcast for next year.

You do what ever suits you.;)

Sir_Humphrey

Really2 wrote: »

Look to me accuracy is important I know it is an estiamtion but the dabate was that 1000-1500 sales would be sufficient.

If 1,000 got me 90% acuracy and 100,000 got me 98% which do you think I would use.

would you buy a house for 10% more than it was worth.;)

You cannot value a house based on national statistics, as you are buying in a one particular small area. National stats give useful background, but they are no substitute for looking at what is happening in a particular area (maybe a few blocks of streets) and using your nose.

The more local you look, the less useful stats are. This is why Nationwide only produces regional stats on a quarterly basis, MoM figures would not have an acceptable degree of accuracy.

Dan:_4

ad44downey wrote: »

Dan, your mobile home went up in value yesterday according to the Nationwide. Today according to the Halifax it actually went down in value. You must be feeling a bit shellshocked by now.

Im sure your feeling shell shocked knowing that your never be a home owner.

Really2

Sir_Humphrey wrote: »

You cannot value a house based on national statistics, as you are buying in a one particular small area. National stats give useful background, but they are no substitute for looking at what is happening in a particular area (maybe a few blocks of streets) and using your nose.

The more local you look, the less useful stats are. This is why Nationwide only produces regional stats on a quarterly basis, MoM figures would not have an acceptable degree of accuracy.

Congrats my point.:T

If you use 1000 sample the chances are the report whould not even have a house price in your town.:T

ad44downey

Dan: wrote: »

Im sure your feeling shell shocked knowing that your never be a home owner.

If I do get a home it won't have wheels on it, that's for sure. lol

stephen163

Really2 wrote: »

You miss the point, would they use 1-25,000 sample ratios or samples with 90% acuracy.

You work to confidence levels and confidence intervals. Given a popultion size and a sample size, You can use a statistical test to determine the interval between which you are 95% or 99% confident that the true value exists. For instance, you could be 95% certain that house prices fall between plus or minus 1% of your sample mean. There are rigorous mathematical proofs to back this up and it's commonly used as a means of establishing a suitable trade off between the sample size (which is expensive to increase) and the accuracy you require.

Dan:_4

ad44downey wrote: »

If I do get a home it won't have wheels on it, that's for sure. lol

What do you mean IF you get a home? Your never be able to afford a home. :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Sir_Humphrey

Really2 wrote: »

Congrats my point.:T

If you use 1000 sample the chances are the report whould not even have a house price in your town.:T

Whether my town is included in the national stats is irrelevant to the accuracy of the national stats. They are background only - they are a national average and that is all they claim to be. To come back to the original point, the likely sample size for this Halifax survey is probably about 10000, which is plenty to get a reasonable national picture.
There are plenty of basic stats books, and I recommend you read one of them.

ad44downey

Dan: wrote: »

What do you mean IF you get a home? Your never be able to afford a home. :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

dan, you should be wishing for prices to continue fallling. If they do you might be able to afford a bigger caravan.