Halifax -1.9% MoM, -17.5% YoY -21.3% from peak.

StevieJ

geoffky wrote: »

too many variables around at the moment to have confidence in anyone's figures...too few sales ect ect.... over .3 months should be a better marker...

You mean like this :cool:

·House prices declined by 2.7% in Quarter 1. This was smaller than the 5-6% falls recorded in each of the three previous quarters.

stephen163

Really2 wrote: »

To what degree of accuracy?

I never said useless but I clearly said the smaller the sample the smaller the accuracy.

You're right to be suspicious of the sample size and sampling methods. It's only an estimate! But it's a better estimate than you think....

Really2

stephen163 wrote: »

You couldn't do this with something random though, like numbers plucked out of thin air or company accounts numbers.

God we are going down the pan...:eek:

Actual accounts are less important than the average for that business size.

Sir_Humphrey

Really2 wrote: »

What the hell are you on about financial companies use 100% stats not samples.

To work out a companies credit rating do you look at that company actual accounts or 1000 UK companies and average it out.

SH admit you are a bit lost on this one.

Traders take into account a lot of economic data that is based on sampling. The same went for mark to model pricing. That quants mistook estimates for 100% accurate data is one of technical causes of the current financial crisis. Auditing techniques also use sampling of accounts.

I am just pointing out that these surveys are useful, but not completely accurate. This is an argument in a shade of grey which is a bit more complex than the usual internet black/white yah-boo nonsense.

Really2

stephen163 wrote: »

You're right to be suspicious of the sample size and sampling methods. It's only an estimate! But it's a better estimate than you think....

Look to me accuracy is important I know it is an estiamtion but the dabate was that 1000-1500 sales would be sufficient.

If 1,000 got me 90% acuracy and 100,000 got me 98% which do you think I would use.

would you buy a house for 10% more than it was worth.;)

Dan:_4

lostinrates wrote: »

I don't think I'm a joiner. I think I'm both bullish and bearish in different scenrios. What Id do now is different to what I'd do if I were single and well...more cautious, what I'd do if I had children would be less ambitious too.

Also, what I'd do in this system and what I'd like the system to be are very different things.

I'm neither fish nor fowl, bull nor bear.:o

You don't know the power of the bulls.

It is useless to resist. Don't let yourself be destroyed as !!!!!!? did.

With our combined strength, we can end this destructive conflict and bring order to MSE.

Come with me, it is the only way...It is your destiny...

ad44downey

geoffky wrote: »

too many variables around at the moment to have confidence in anyone's figures...too few sales ect ect.... over .3 months should be a better marker...

Geoff, over 3 months all the figures say Down, Way down

stephen163

Really2 wrote: »

God we are going down the pan...:eek:

Actual accounts are less important than the average for that business size.

Just trying to highlight the distinction between when you can, and when you cannot use sampling. You were obviously ignorant to this earlier when you used the example of the problem in using sampling to determine 25 million numbers.

Really2

Sir_Humphrey wrote: »

Traders take into account a lot of economic data that is based on sampling. The same went for mark to model pricing. That quants mistook estimates for 100% accurate data is one of technical causes of the current financial crisis. Auditing techniques also use sampling of accounts.
.

You miss the point, would they use 1-25,000 sample ratios or samples with 90% acuracy.

ad44downey

Dan: wrote: »

You don't know the power of the bulls.

It is useless to resist. Don't let yourself be destroyed as !!!!!!? did.

With our combined strength, we can end this destructive conflict and bring order to MSE.

Come with me, it is the only way...It is your destiny...

Dan, your mobile home went up in value yesterday according to the Nationwide. Today according to the Halifax it actually went down in value. You must be feeling a bit shellshocked by now.