Superb piece on Yahoo Money following on from -55% prediction

stevetodd

dopester wrote: »

In other-words, loads of "wealth" in the system has been destroyed.

Falling house prices, falling values, have already seen trillions wiped off assumed wealth. Trillions of pounds wiped in to the void from stock market crashing from peak. Houses are only worth what people will, and are able to, pay for them.

I think I'll buy a house at 1982-83 price levels.

I don't think they will fall much further than 15% (maybe 20% at a push) from current prices

Dan:_4

skap7309 wrote: »

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/18032009/389/house-prices-recover.html

Glad to see the media for once telling it how it is. Not pretty, but just what this country needs to get over the false 'wealth' that does not exist.

''Britons are among the most indebted people on the planet, and now we won't have the assets to back it up.''

''And what if property prices don't bounce back for years, or even decades? It could happen. The massive wealth implosion of recent months won't be reversed in a hurry.''

''Property will no longer be seen as an investment, let alone as a pension. Most people will see their home as a place to live instead.'' :T

We will stop feeling rich off unearned property wealth....

The buy-to-let market will return to what it always should have been, a niche investment for professional landlords, rather than a fast-track to millionaire status. One and two bed flats will be sold to the people they always should have been sold to: first-time buyers.

Skap, when are you going to stop grabbing at straws and just buy a house like Carol and !!!!!!?

skap7309

Dan: wrote: »

Skap, when are you going to stop grabbing at straws and just buy a house like Carol and !!!!!!?

Hahaha, good things come to those who wait Dan my friend. I like the look of the 4 bed detached houses in my area that are falling into my price range on a weekly basis.

I sense i have hit a slight nerve with the bulls with this thread.

skap7309

stevetodd wrote: »

As I said above to Trev surely you don't need an article to tell you that HPI wasn't forever, just look at the 70's and 80's/90's HPC's.

Whilst yes, i agree and the same can be said about buyer enquiries on the up - it is meaningless and you do not need an article about that but some people want to see that.
I am sure this was a discussion forum last time i was on here lol.

skap7309

stevetodd wrote: »

I don't think they will fall much further than 15% (maybe 20% at a push) from current prices

I would say the same................dont get me wrong bigger is better and all that but it would take it to -35-40% from crazy 2007 and seems fair enough.

Very bearish from you steve!

stevetodd

skap7309 wrote: »

Whilst yes, i agree and the same can be said about buyer enquiries on the up - it is meaningless and you do not need an article about that but some people want to see that.
I am sure this was a discussion forum last time i was on here lol.

Yes I agree it is meaningless, the bit that was relevant was the 'probably won't happen' bit.

By the way I am waiting to buy about 3 houses myself so although I already have property I am looking forward to picking up some more. But threads talking of a further 55% is beyond a joke, I think it's actually an insult to someone's intelligence, and doesn't say much for the newspapers/other media that print that rubbish IMO

stevetodd

skap7309 wrote: »

I would say the same................dont get me wrong bigger is better and all that but it would take it to -35-40% from crazy 2007 and seems fair enough.

Very bearish from you steve!

I am a realist with both bull and bearish qualities, I have always said 35-40% from the top of the market and see no reason to change that view yet.

themanbearpig

stevetodd wrote: »

I don't think they will fall much further than 15% (maybe 20% at a push) from current prices

So you don't expect an undershoot?

Another 20% is a given if you consider the circumstances.

Dan:_4

themanbearpig wrote: »

So you don't expect an undershoot?

Another 20% is a given if you consider the circumstances.

Nothing is a 'given' when it comes to economics and predictions.

stevetodd

themanbearpig wrote: »

So you don't expect an undershoot?

Another 20% is a given if you consider the circumstances.

That would mean that I get my 3 bed victorian houses in harringey for only £170k giving me a yield of about 8.4% I just don't think I will get that lucky. It may happen by including in all the new builds and giving ab average of 40% (I have no idea as to the effect of the new builds on the average).

So l would settle for paying 200k they were about 285k at the top so thats 30% off, I don't care (too much) if they fall further because I know I have got a good deal in the long run and that's what matters to me. They are currently about 220k=230k (asking price) but my problem is not only price but getting 3 double bedrooms, tenants don't like single bedrooms so I don't either.