Get ready for Capitulation....Fear is here, people will start to accept lower prices

SamIAm_3-2

Cleaver wrote: »

I've had a busy week working away from home doing some stupidly long (but kinda fun) days, and then me and Mrs Cleaver had a weekend away in a fancy hotel for a bit of sex, drugs, rock and roll and cups of tea in bed whilst reading a complementary Sunday Times and watching the Andrew Marr Show. Ahhh, bliss.

Don't worry, I haven't got myself a life or anything.

Then the first thing you do when you get back is post on here. Nice!

Welcome back too!

Cleaver

SamIAm wrote: »

Then the first thing you do when you get back is post on here. Nice!

Welcome back too!

Ta.

She's on her laptop searching for clothes on eBay (probably) as I type away here on mine. No speaking - it's like that scene in The Matrix with all the humans just plugged in to machines.

mr.broderick

Cleaver wrote: »

Ta.

She's on her laptop searching for clothes on eBay (probably) as I type away here on mine. No speaking - it's like that scene in The Matrix with all the humans just plugged in to machines.

Duracells.

mr.broderick

Cleaver wrote: »

Ta.

She's on her laptop searching for clothes on eBay (probably) as I type away here on mine. No speaking - it's like that scene in The Matrix with all the humans just plugged in to machines.

I now realise how you all must have felt when i had a couple of days off.

RDB

stevetodd wrote: »

Could we bet on this? we could ask Martin to hold the stakes, I would trust him would you? I am happy to bet that they will not reach the lower (25%) level of your range by xmas.

Martin if you ae readiing this would you do it? If so I would be happy to donate 10% of wnnings to a charity of your choice.

How much would you be willing to bet?

Steve I will bet against you.

I am willing to put money against you and people like Mitchaa.

Its so obvious you are both wrong.

I dont know about a further 25% down by the end of this yr on top of the almost 20% down already. But it will get there eventually.

I say a further 20% down on top of the falls already, and I am willing to put money on it.

look at this

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/08/recession-housing-market-recession


The days of the 125% loan-to-value mortgage for young people have gone - possibly forever - as lenders have finally decided to price risk more accurately. With house prices falling at an annual 20% or so, few are willing to lend beyond 75% of a property's current value.
A fall of another 20% this year seems as reasonable an expectation as any. Certainly, cash prices being paid at auction are a lot lower than those being measured by the traditional measures and point to further falls.
How frightening would such a fall be? After all, prices would then be down about 40% from the peak.

Hectors_House

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Owners will not completely luck out however. Falling capital values will allow them to jump 2 or more rungs up from where they could, further inspiring them to drop prices further, as large deposits are a must. Without a sale, they arent going anywhere. The only people who will luck out will be those old fuddy duddies waiting to die and are expecting First time buyers to fund their retirement. They are going to be massively dissapointed.

I reckon we will be another 20% down by next christmas. Wait and see! :rotfl:

:T:T:T

Yes, I've seen this with my own eyes this weekend.

Friends put their house up for sale in Lutterworth and have already accepted an offer after following my advice to price low to sell.

Even with doing that they are making a big profit due to having bought the house years ago when prices were more sustainable.

In turn they've been able to look at bigger houses in better areas and have put an offer in a three-bed with huge garden with tree-house that has slid down from £200k to their offer of £120k.

The folks we miust feel sorry for (whether we think they were being greedy or just plain stoopid) are those, mainly youngsters who fell for the hype in recent years and literally sold their souls to get onto the housing ladder.

As you say, they are going to have to wait a long, long time before their property can be sold again for what they paid for it.

Personally, I think it would take another event like 9/11 to get property prices to go as crazy as they did.

i4U

I am relatively new to this forum. However, whenever I have needed some help or advise people here have been very helpful. On the negative side, I see a lot of people just attacking each others view/opinions without asking for an explanation. This is, and could stay a great forum if we stop doing that.

I am house owner and I am in the process of buying a second property. I wanted to gauge people's opinion in terms of the best case scenario and worst case scenario with regards to house prices in the next 12 months.

I am generally an optimist. I suppose I have to be if I am trying to buy in this market.

How much do you think it will go down by? I just want to see what the average is.

botchjob

Hectors_House wrote: »

literally sold their souls to get onto the housing ladder.

Really? Which mortgage provider was offering this deal? I must have missed it, damn.

lostinrates

botchjob wrote: »

Really? Which mortgage provider was offering this deal? I must have missed it, damn.

LOL, I'd still sign up now, whether through a mortgage provider or a private sale. Maybe I should ebay it?

RDB

i4U wrote: »

I am relatively new to this forum. However, whenever I have needed some help or advise people here have been very helpful. On the negative side, I see a lot of people just attacking each others view/opinions without asking for an explanation. This is, and could stay a great forum if we stop doing that.

I am house owner and I am in the process of buying a second property. I wanted to gauge people's opinion in terms of the best case scenario and worst case scenario with regards to house prices in the next 12 months.

I am generally an optimist. I suppose I have to be if I am trying to buy in this market.

How much do you think it will go down by? I just want to see what the average is.

I4U thats $64K question isnt it.

You will find there are some on here like Mitchaa who actually thinks his home is still going up in value. But most are more realistic.

The official figures are that we are about 20% down already and looking likely to be falling about another 20% this yr too. Obviously they cant keep falling 20% every yr, I think 2012 will see the bottom. By then prices will be well down what they are today. Im not sure if I agree with the 70% club but who knows.