Get ready for Capitulation....Fear is here, people will start to accept lower prices

mitchaa

18mths in and we have not broke the 1st 20% and you think we'll break the 2nd 20% in half that time in the next 9mths:rotfl:

Have you not seen the Halifax house price index, prices are up in 2009, they are higher now than they were back in December:p

With QE having just been approved, i think 20% will be a long way off if not impossible to achieve this year.

puddy

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Some of the largest bulls on record are capitulating, not only on here, but over on sites like singingpig and globalhousepricecrash.com. The reality that the property excesses of the past 10 years, more likely 20 years are long gone will hit market prices like a sledgehammer.

It wont be long before sellers realize this recession (depression) is here for a very, very long time and prices will NEVER fully recover to the excesses of peak 2007. We are about to see some of the biggest falls of the crash over the next few months, as a result of people 'getting real' as they are starting to on the stock market, fear takes over and the race starts to the bottom. All those that really want to sell but took their houses off the market waiting for the 'recovery' will be back, volumes increasing massively will be the first step.

Owners will not completely luck out however. Falling capital values will allow them to jump 2 or more rungs up from where they could, further inspiring them to drop prices further, as large deposits are a must. Without a sale, they arent going anywhere. The only people who will luck out will be those old fuddy duddies waiting to die and are expecting First time buyers to fund their retirement. They are going to be massively dissapointed.

I reckon we will be another 20% down by next christmas. Wait and see! :rotfl:

:T:T:T

never is a long time though....

mitchaa

Where are all these cheap homes going to come from as surely the majorities will just stay put and ride the storm?

What about the millions of homeowners that cannot sell for financial reasons, i.e negative equity? (Do not confuse negative equity with not being able to afford the monthly mortgage payments:rolleyes: )

The less homes on the market, the more people will get into bidding wars for them and push houses straight back up again.

I think some of you are delusional in thinking that homeowners have been zipped up the back and are as stupid as they come.

We are supposedly back at 2004 house price levels but yet im reading hundreds of threads on here asking where are all these 2004 house prices are.

Banks will start lending again, the government will soon see to that. They will print money until they do.

besonders1

Where are all these cheap homes going to come from as surely the majorities will just stay put and ride the storm?

So how long do you think sellers will be able to do this for until the prices go back up to 2007 levels or should we say until the prices go back down to what they were 8 years ago?. Its a bit like how long is a piece of string?

What about the millions of homeowners that cannot sell for financial reasons, i.e negative equity? (Do not confuse negative equity with not being able to afford the monthly mortgage payments:rolleyes: )

Then they'll just have to be happy with what they've got until the government waves the magic wand!

We are supposedly back at 2004 house price levels but yet im reading hundreds of threads on here asking where are all these 2004 house prices are.

The less homes on the market, the more people will get into bidding wars for them and push houses straight back up again.

Not really if the only houses on the market are only the ridiculous priced ones that no one can afford!

Banks will start lending again, the government will soon see to that. They will print money until they do.

Well thats the solution isn't it and it will all end happily ever after.

StevieJ

Walking into Town the other day, there seemed to be a lot of house improvements going on. It looks like householders are digging in for the long term

mbga9pgf

A reminder for MItchAA, from an earlier post

we are starting to see what I would describe as the 'smarter of the thickest' investors waking up to reality. Once the masses wake up to what is happening, that their little world of ever-rising house prices isnt going to happen, prices are going one way quickly.

Obviously Mitch falls into the "thick as mince category" that will only wake up and smell the coffee once 40% of his Aberdeen equity has evaporated.

How are you coping with oil below 45 dollars a barrel? :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

mewbie_2

mbga9pgf wrote: »

"thick as mince category"

It's good to learn one thing a day on MSE, and that expression covers my needs for today.

chucky

whathavewedone wrote: »

zzzzzz that graph must have been posted up a million times on HPC and I've seen it a few times on here as well.

i think you're wrong - this is HPC.co.uk now
no sorry it's MSE - it's all so much the same site now

whathavewedone

Yes it certainly feels like it these days. Although there are at least some well informed posters on there amongst the nutters whether you agree with them or not.

The good posters on here are leaving in droves. The latest one is Cleaver - he hasn't been around all week.

On this forum recently it seems that unless you post endless soundbites about "broon", "Where are the green shoots?!" or shout "TIMBER" in response to practically every post you can expect to either be ignored or ridiculed and you certainly won't get any thanks.

I haven't been on this forum long but it was really good when I joined. There was wit and humour and lively discussion. I consider myself to be a bear in that I don't expect house prices to rise/the economy to miraculously recover any time soon but it seems that if you believe in anything less than Armageddon on here no one wants to know. Numerous threads along the lines of "INFLATION IS ON THE WAY! INTEREST RATES WILL SHOOT UP TO 20%, HOUSE PRICES WILL FALL EVEN FURTHER!!!!" but no one's interested in discussing in how this might be dealt with by future governments/how it should be dealt with.

It's becoming really tiresome.

mewbie_2

whathavewedone wrote: »

Yes it certainly feels like it these days. Although there are at least some well informed posters on there amongst the nutters whether you agree with them or not.

It can work both ways though. I started on here as a raving bear, keen to attack bulls wherever I saw them and spread the message of HPC. Now several months on I think I have become more balanced in my opinions, and able to see where the reasonable bulls, and bears, are coming from.

So I hope I have changed from HPC nutter to mild irritant.