Get ready for Capitulation....Fear is here, people will start to accept lower prices

mbga9pgf

Some of the largest bulls on record are capitulating, not only on here, but over on sites like singingpig and globalhousepricecrash.com. The reality that the property excesses of the past 10 years, more likely 20 years are long gone will hit market prices like a sledgehammer.

It wont be long before sellers realize this recession (depression) is here for a very, very long time and prices will NEVER fully recover to the excesses of peak 2007. We are about to see some of the biggest falls of the crash over the next few months, as a result of people 'getting real' as they are starting to on the stock market, fear takes over and the race starts to the bottom. All those that really want to sell but took their houses off the market waiting for the 'recovery' will be back, volumes increasing massively will be the first step.

Owners will not completely luck out however. Falling capital values will allow them to jump 2 or more rungs up from where they could, further inspiring them to drop prices further, as large deposits are a must. Without a sale, they arent going anywhere. The only people who will luck out will be those old fuddy duddies waiting to die and are expecting First time buyers to fund their retirement. They are going to be massively dissapointed.

I reckon we will be another 20% down by next christmas. Wait and see! :rotfl:

:T:T:T

stevetodd

mbga9pgf wrote: »

I reckon we will be another 20% down by next christmas. Wait and see! :rotfl:

:T:T:T

But you also reckoned that I was 'desperate' then just ran away from the thread when I asked you to explain how I was desperate

mbga9pgf

Mate, I had to go to work.

You know, that place you go to when you dont spend your entire life on MSE?

stevetodd

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Mate, I had to go to work.

You know, that place you go to when you dont spend your entire life on MSE?

But you are back now and still no explanation

ps I can't see prices falling by more than 10% by xmas

dervish

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Some of the largest bulls on record are capitulating, not only on here, but over on sites like singingpig and globalhousepricecrash.com. The reality that the property excesses of the past 10 years, more likely 20 years are long gone will hit market prices like a sledgehammer.

It wont be long before sellers realize this recession (depression) is here for a very, very long time and prices will NEVER fully recover to the excesses of peak 2007. We are about to see some of the biggest falls of the crash over the next few months, as a result of people 'getting real' as they are starting to on the stock market, fear takes over and the race starts to the bottom. All those that really want to sell but took their houses off the market waiting for the 'recovery' will be back, volumes increasing massively will be the first step.

Owners will not completely luck out however. Falling capital values will allow them to jump 2 or more rungs up from where they could, further inspiring them to drop prices further, as large deposits are a must. Without a sale, they arent going anywhere. The only people who will luck out will be those old fuddy duddies waiting to die and are expecting First time buyers to fund their retirement. They are going to be massively dissapointed.

I reckon we will be another 20% down by next christmas. Wait and see! :rotfl:

:T:T:T

incisive analysis, I agree.

whathavewedone

It might look like incisive analysis to you but to anyone who isn't hoping to move house in the next few years it just looks like a total non story.

Don't get me wrong, house prices are still falling but all this thread seems to be based on is a few posts on other forums from sellers saying that they are going to reduce their prices. There may be very good reasons for supposing that prices will fall another 20% over the next 12 months but I don't think this is one of them.

stevetodd

whathavewedone wrote: »

It might look like incisive analysis to you but to anyone who isn't hoping to move house in the next few years it just looks like a total non story.

Don't get me wrong, house prices are still falling but all this thread seems to be based on is a few posts on other forums from sellers saying that they are going to reduce their prices. There may be very good reasons for supposing that prices will fall another 20% over the next 12 months but I don't think this is one of them.

It wasn't even 12 months, it was by xmas which is only 9.5 months away

mbga9pgf

whathavewedone wrote: »

It might look like incisive analysis to you but to anyone who isn't hoping to move house in the next few years it just looks like a total non story.

Don't get me wrong, house prices are still falling but all this thread seems to be based on is a few posts on other forums from sellers saying that they are going to reduce their prices. There may be very good reasons for supposing that prices will fall another 20% over the next 12 months but I don't think this is one of them.

Here is a good reason. Sellers are FINALLY starting to wake up to reality.



The graph is simple. Except it is different this time. Government and markets are talking about pricing controls in a BIG way.

This is another good one.



once we go from Fear ---> capitulation watch the prices fall through the floor. Massive supply of repos isnt going to help prices any time soon... we are starting to see what I would describe as the 'smarter of the thickest' investors waking up to reality. Once the masses wake up to what is happening, that their little world of ever-rising house prices isnt going to happen, prices are going one way quickly.

stevetodd

mbga9pgf wrote: »

their little world of ever-rising house prices isnt going to happen, prices are going one way quickly.

I think this is where you are going wrong. The housing market is cyclical and never was 'ever rising' and nor will it be that 'prices are going one way' permanently. I heard all this back in the early 90's when people thought I was crazy for buying in a falling market. Yes this recession is worse but that doesn't change the principle of buying at the bottom (or near) being a good investment

whathavewedone

zzzzzz that graph must have been posted up a million times on HPC and I've seen it a few times on here as well.

Yep, we're in the early stages of a recession, house prices are falling and they are going to fall some more. Then the market will flatten for a period of time and eventually prices will start to rise again as we come out of recession and confidence returns. That's what happens in recessions. Do we really need graphs to tell us this?

I've lived through 2 recessions (well actually 3 but as I was a child in the 1970s my most vivid recollections of that decade are not of strikes and powercuts but of riding around on my bike during long hot summers and coming in to watch Wonderwoman or the Saint).

Yes I know this is different, much worse, yada, yada but it will come and go like all the others.

mbga9pgf

stevetodd wrote: »

I think this is where you are going wrong. The housing market is cyclical and never was 'ever rising' and nor will it be that 'prices are going one way' permanently. I heard all this back in the early 90's when people thought I was crazy for buying in a falling market. Yes this recession is worse but that doesn't change the principle of buying at the bottom (or near) being a good investment

Sorry steve, I need to make myself clear. In the medium term they are only going one way. I am expecting a recovery, of course I recognise the market is cyclical. I dont think they will peak again even at today's inflation adjusted prices, or at least not for another 20+ years. I think we are only approaching what I term as neutral affordability, IE not expensive, not cheap. Once market controls are introduced, I reckon we will see far fewer years that hpi outstrips wage inflation. Certainly whilst the banks are trying to pay back their dues to government they wont be excessively lending, and as we know, without excessive lending, we wont have excessive HPI.:T