Traders predict house prices will fall by 50% in four years AND 2017 MAYBE A RECOVERY

chucky

torontoboy45 wrote: »

I've read a fair amount of criticism re LE insofar as it fails to include auction/repo/NB. but what downward pressure do these exclusions exert on the market as a whole? northampton's market isn't rushing off to auction. 'repo's up 300%' might make a good headline in our local rag but when the 07 figure was so small there was no significant impact in 08. and we're not in the middle of a NB frenzy.
having just looked at LR for northants the market peaked in nov 07. the overall fall stood at approx. 14% by dec 08. this conservative figure can probably be explained away by the 3 month(?) lag.
I expect northampton prices to fall further this yr and into 2010, but the idea that a collapse of 40/50% in this locale (excl. a few NB flats) looks more ridiculous by the day.
if I'm totally wrong on this then we will just have to take the hit and smile.
I intend to buy early next yr.

the LR numbers are good for what they are - i understand the repo and new build argument.

as you say how many repos actually come on the market?
there haven't been a huge volume so they're if anything only denting if affecting it all.

the problem with a repo is if you do see one, you won't be the only one wanting to buy it.

for a 40%/50% price drop you would need constant falls for the next 3-4 years once you compound the price drops from peak. IMO that's not possible but there are many people who think it will happen.

i believe that you could buy now and be able to factor in price drops if you can convince the seller. you could also do this in 3/6 or 12 months and it's down to your appetite to buy really - yours is next year and it's good to have a plan and know what you're looking for.

torontoboy45

assuming/hoping/praying/fantasizing over a 15% drop this yr would deliver a 2bd terrace (as above) in good condition ITRO £95k. purchase would require mortgage funding of £25k. should my daughter become jobless there would (obviously) be no problem in my ability to service the debt.

i've posted here about this in the past. some seem confused by my generosity. let me try to explain.
watching friends/relatives suffer the distress of repo in the early 90's was deeply unpleasant. some compounded the problem by climbing into a whisky bottle. one lost the plot entirely and entered a mental hospital. another spent 3yrs with family in a hovel laughingly called a B+B.
I was lucky enough to stay afloat. I'd like to share some of that luck with daughter.

Wookster

Incase this hasn't been posted before, here it is. I would say we are due to return to 1999/2000 price levels. (It is a HPI graph for the US but structurally we are fairly similar).

confused31_2

If houses do come down 50% ill be buying 2 this time, if only i knew it last time i bought ,i would have overstretched myself then and reaped the benefits 2 years ago.

IveSeenTheLight

torontoboy45 wrote: »

I used this board as a learning curve. had I posted it would have just added to the drivel. better,I thought, to call by once in a while and read the more factual posts.

So you come on 16 months later to add to the drivel in a sort of "I told you so" without actually telling us so

torontoboy45

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

So you come on 16 months later to add to the drivel in a sort of "I told you so" without actually telling us so

sad little posts like this used to be the norm IIRC.

another timewaster to put on 'ignore'.