Traders predict house prices will fall by 50% in four years AND 2017 MAYBE A RECOVERY

StevieJ

geoffky wrote: »

Is It Not Relevant?

They Only Predicted A 10% Fall For Last Year So Its Going To Be Worse.

. Ps Not Had One For Ten Years The Next One Will Be When That!cher Dies...

I thought she was dead already, stabbed in the back !

StevieJ

Radiantsoul wrote: »

I have not heard of the futures market on property prices and I doubt it is a particularly liquid market especially 9 years out, although perhaps I am wrong. However a futures market price is not really a future estimate of the price, but a price today for delivery in the future. The two are not necessarily the same.

I wonder what the futures market was showing 3 years or 9 years ago :rolleyes:

torontoboy45

chucky wrote: »

a very good self-agrandising post. The article on this thread is from June 2008.

job done, what job done? predicting that there would be a crash since 2001? sorry to break the news but that was obvious.

You joined in Dec 2008 - you talk about 18 months and bulls being defeated,. What's you're old user name unless the comment should read 1 month?

And as for Haliwide numbers - would you really only take notice of an average index that only counts less than 30% of mortgage approvals. i'd go back and re-word the switched on comment.

you must be one of the few remaining bulls. I admire your tenacity.
point by point:
I must have hit a nerve. self-aggrandising - no. a little wiser - yes (even if I say so myself).
the OP article is archive so of little use. half-interesting. point conceded.
how 'obvious' was a crash of this magnitude and speed to you? was this board up and running in 2001? who exactly was it making woefully inaccurate predictions in that yr?
16 months is closer. I used this board as a learning curve. had I posted it would have just added to the drivel. better,I thought, to call by once in a while and read the more factual posts. no, I've never posted under a different username. unless I was trolling why should I do that?
you seem to have a problem with the haliwide figures. how wide of the mark are they? is there a more accurate index available? if so, where can I find it?

you sound bitter, chucky. is the downturn causing you to lose money? or is it preventing you from making some?

GDB2222

geoffky wrote: »

Not Had One For Ten Years The Next One Will Be When Thatcher Dies...

She's in a sort of living death, which I think is worse than just dying.

Ivor_Bigun

geoffky wrote: »

The slide in house prices will continue for at least three years and crush the value of a home by almost 50% in real terms, according to a key index of property price futures.

These are only bets on what MIGHT happen, these people don't know more than anyone else about what WILL happen. This has nothing to do with the "cash" market.

chucky

torontoboy45 wrote: »

you must be one of the few remaining bulls. I admire your tenacity.

I'm not a bull or nor am I a remaining bull - just a realist.

torontoboy45 wrote: »

I must have hit a nerve. self-aggrandising - no. a little wiser - yes (even if I say so myself).

hit a nerve - no just made me a bit curious when you were talking about 18 months ago when you were a member since Dec 2008. you were obviously lurking.

torontoboy45 wrote: »

the OP article is archive so of little use. half-interesting. point conceded.

no points to concede or gain - just discussions backwards and forwards that will never be agreed on because this is just an internet forum

torontoboy45 wrote: »

how 'obvious' was a crash of this magnitude and speed to you? was this board up and running in 2001? who exactly was it making woefully inaccurate predictions in that yr?

it was pretty obvious once prices started moving up - it had to end.
something had to give - in this case it was the huge amount of credit.
HPC.com was set up in 2003 predicting the crash was going to happen.
to me it was obvious, no idea why or when it it would happen but things would need to come to an end.
there were too many fragile economic models in the economy based on credit.
you will now see that the stronger more grounded firms will come through the current economic climate.

torontoboy45 wrote: »

you seem to have a problem with the haliwide figures. how wide of the mark are they? is there a more accurate index available? if so, where can I find it?

the haliwide figures to me are what they - average mortgage approvals of less than 30% of the market and i prefer to look at my local information rather than the average than numbers that may include a town in South Wales. they provide an indicator and along with the Land Registry figures provide good information on how the market is going. I don't like to just concentrate on those as they are average, other market indicators also help.

don't forget the regional aspects of both the Halifax and the Nationwide - Northern and Southern England.

torontoboy45 wrote: »

you sound bitter, chucky. is the downturn causing you to lose money? or is it preventing you from making some?

me bitter - sorry i haven't been eating any lemons.

as for losing and making money - i would never ever see how you could make money over a year or two out of property, if you do you're taking a massive risk. if you're talking 10/15/20 years that's where you can make your money.

are you looking to by Toronto - if so what areas?

Entertainer

geoffky wrote: »

LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO BE WORSE AS THEY RECKON ONL10% AND IT WAS 16%


The slide in house prices will continue for at least three years and crush the value of a home by almost 50% in real terms, according to a key index of property price futures. Indications from futures trading on long term property prices shows that the average UK home will recover its current value only in 2017.
By the end of this year prices will be down by 10% and by a further 10.5% in 2009, according to the index. Prices will keep dropping through 2010 and cut values by 23.5% when they hit rock bottom in 2011. House prices will then begin a slow climb back to current market values over a period of about six years.



http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/09/housingmarket.houseprices

That's after inflation remember, it's a smaller absolute fall.

torontoboy45

chucky wrote: »

I'm not a bull or nor am I a remaining bull - just a realist.



hit a nerve - no just made me a bit curious when you were talking about 18 months ago when you were a member since Dec 2008. you were obviously lurking.



no points to concede or gain - just discussions backwards and forwards that will never be agreed on because this is just an internet forum



it was pretty obvious once prices started moving up - it had to end.
something had to give - in this case it was the huge amount of credit.
HPC.com was set up in 2003 predicting the crash was going to happen.
to me it was obvious, no idea why or when it it would happen but things would need to come to an end.
there were too many fragile economic models in the economy based on credit.
you will now see that the stronger more grounded firms will come through the current economic climate.



the haliwide figures to me are what they - average mortgage approvals of less than 30% of the market and i prefer to look at my local information rather than the average than numbers that may include a town in South Wales. they provide an indicator and along with the Land Registry figures provide good information on how the market is going. I don't like to just concentrate on those as they are average, other market indicators also help.

don't forget the regional aspects of both the Halifax and the Nationwide - Northern and Southern England.




me bitter - sorry i haven't been eating any lemons.

as for losing and making money - i would never ever see how you could make money over a year or two out of property, if you do you're taking a massive risk. if you're talking 10/15/20 years that's where you can make your money.

are you looking to by Toronto - if so what areas?

my mortgage finished some yrs ago. I abhor debt (so I guess my name won't feature on Broon's xmas card list) and made a few sacrifices to get the mortgage millstone off of my neck -no holidays for a few yrs, 2nd hand furniture, old car falling to bits, etc.
my daughter is keen to move into her own pad. she holds a £10k deposit. I've undertaken to help further by contributing to her deposit, so securing a lower int. rate.
she wants to buy in northampton. the fall for last yr was given as 17%, although I'm not sure of the accuracy/provenance of this figure.
£110k now buys a 2 bed terrace, cellar, rear garden in a well-served, reasonable side of town. in 07 asking prices were nearer to £137k, which bears out the quoted 17%. with larger properties the fall doesn't appear to be quite so dramatic.

chucky

torontoboy45 wrote: »

my mortgage finished some yrs ago. I abhor debt (so I guess my name won't feature on Broon's xmas card list) and made a few sacrifices to get the mortgage millstone off of my neck -no holidays for a few yrs, 2nd hand furniture, old car falling to bits, etc.
my daughter is keen to move into her own pad. she holds a £10k deposit. I've undertaken to help further by contributing to her deposit, so securing a lower int. rate.
she wants to buy in northampton. the fall for last yr was given as 17%, although I'm not sure of the accuracy/provenance of this figure.
£110k now buys a 2 bed terrace, cellar, rear garden in a well-served, reasonable side of town. in 07 asking prices were nearer to £137k, which bears out the quoted 17%. with larger properties the fall doesn't appear to be quite so dramatic.

you're approach is a sensible one with regards to the higher deposit.

it's also good to see that you know you have a feel for the local prices.
drill into the LR numbers with regards to property types they're quite useful even if they don't include repos and new builds.

the timing bit is a bit difficult as you know when buying a property you have to factor a lot of detail like mortgage costs over the 25 years. so buying now, in 6 months or even 12 months will be different even if house prices go up or down.

good luck in helping your daughter

torontoboy45

chucky wrote: »

you're approach is a sensible one with regards to the higher deposit.

it's also good to see that you know you have a feel for the local prices.
drill into the LR numbers with regards to property types they're quite useful even if they don't include repos and new builds.

the timing bit is a bit difficult as you know when buying a property you have to factor a lot of detail like mortgage costs over the 25 years. so buying now, in 6 months or even 12 months will be different even if house prices go up or down.

good luck in helping your daughter

I've read a fair amount of criticism re LE insofar as it fails to include auction/repo/NB. but what downward pressure do these exclusions exert on the market as a whole? northampton's market isn't rushing off to auction. 'repo's up 300%' might make a good headline in our local rag but when the 07 figure was so small there was no significant impact in 08. and we're not in the middle of a NB frenzy.
having just looked at LR for northants the market peaked in nov 07. the overall fall stood at approx. 14% by dec 08. this conservative figure can probably be explained away by the 3 month(?) lag.
I expect northampton prices to fall further this yr and into 2010, but the idea that a collapse of 40/50% in this locale (excl. a few NB flats) looks more ridiculous by the day.
if I'm totally wrong on this then we will just have to take the hit and smile.
I intend to buy early next yr.