Traders predict house prices will fall by 50% in four years AND 2017 MAYBE A RECOVERY

geoffky

LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO BE WORSE AS THEY RECKON ONL10% AND IT WAS 16%


The slide in house prices will continue for at least three years and crush the value of a home by almost 50% in real terms, according to a key index of property price futures. Indications from futures trading on long term property prices shows that the average UK home will recover its current value only in 2017.
By the end of this year prices will be down by 10% and by a further 10.5% in 2009, according to the index. Prices will keep dropping through 2010 and cut values by 23.5% when they hit rock bottom in 2011. House prices will then begin a slow climb back to current market values over a period of about six years.



http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/09/housingmarket.houseprices

chucky

the article is from June 2008 - been drinking again Geoffrey??

geoffky

Is It Not Relevant?

They Only Predicted A 10% Fall For Last Year So Its Going To Be Worse.

. Ps Not Had One For Ten Years The Next One Will Be When Thatcher Dies...

chucky

of course it's relevant - good to see you're keeping up with the latest news.

leave Baroness out of it, she's an old lady now

Sapphire

geoffky wrote: »

LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO BE WORSE AS THEY RECKON ONL10% AND IT WAS 16%


The slide in house prices will continue for at least three years and crush the value of a home by almost 50% in real terms, according to a key index of property price futures. Indications from futures trading on long term property prices shows that the average UK home will recover its current value only in 2017.
By the end of this year prices will be down by 10% and by a further 10.5% in 2009, according to the index. Prices will keep dropping through 2010 and cut values by 23.5% when they hit rock bottom in 2011. House prices will then begin a slow climb back to current market values over a period of about six years.



http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/09/housingmarket.houseprices

What are 'current market values', and what is 'rock bottom'? Personally, I cannot see prices ever shooting up a high as they were in 2007. Wages will not go up high enough for people to be able to afford homes at those prices at sensible borrowing levels (I am assuming we will not go back to the unsustainable borrowing lunacy of the last five years or so within the lifetimes of most of the people on this forum). I also think prices will fall at least 50 per cent (probably more) from peak, though this will likely happen over two or three years.

torontoboy45

geoffky wrote: »

LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO BE WORSE AS THEY RECKON ONL10% AND IT WAS 16%


The slide in house prices will continue for at least three years and crush the value of a home by almost 50% in real terms, according to a key index of property price futures. Indications from futures trading on long term property prices shows that the average UK home will recover its current value only in 2017.
By the end of this year prices will be down by 10% and by a further 10.5% in 2009, according to the index. Prices will keep dropping through 2010 and cut values by 23.5% when they hit rock bottom in 2011. House prices will then begin a slow climb back to current market values over a period of about six years.

IIRC, this index mirrors Morgan Stanley's 08 prediction (which proved gloomy at the time, but low-side inaccurate)

no problem with retro stuff but - geoff - try to make it clear about context, yes?

for all the little thatcherites out there: I'm usually in sympathy with a little old lady suffering alzheimer's, but not in this case.
I hope that the story about her grave carrying public notice 'licensed for dancing' is true.
I can't wait to samba.

[Deleted User]

torontoboy45 wrote: »

I hope that the story about her grave carrying public notice 'licensed for dancing' is true.
I can't wait to samba.

You've never seen The Gravedancers :rotfl:... And what a film that was! http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0435653/

slopemaster

Yeah, I'll be p!ssed too, singing 'Masters of War'

whathavewedone

Why are you posting something so out of date?

Is it because you are hoping to demonstrate that because house prices slid more than 10% in 2008 that they will fall more than 50% in total?

That may be the inference that you prefer to draw but there are other inferences that could also be drawn to suit different points of view/vested interests.

For example you could simply rubbish the prediction on the basis that they were wrong about price drops in 2008.

Or you could infer that as prices dropped more than 10% in 2008 they will reach the bottom in 2010 rather than 2011 and reach 2007 levels in 2016.

Or you could just think what a waste of time clicking on this thread was, can we have some up to date news please?

poppy10_2

whathavewedone wrote: »

can we have some up to date news please?

The current prediction is for a 20% drop over the next twelve months, and a total peak to trough fall of 45% in nominal terms, with the average house price falling to £109k

currynchips

Can I have a Todd-Carty-begging smiley for that prediction Poppy?