Traders predict house prices will fall by 50% in four years AND 2017 MAYBE A RECOVERY

poppy10_2

currynchips wrote: »

Can I have a Todd-Carty-begging smiley for that prediction Poppy?

???

[Deleted User]

lol 4 properties have sold here in the last 2 weeks

get real, op

geoffky

kittie wrote: »

lol 4 properties have sold here in the last 2 weeks

get real, op

THATS IT....CRASH OVER....KITTIE SAY 4 PLACES SOLD SO LETS ALL BUY NOW.....:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

WTF?_2

poppy10 wrote: »

The current prediction is for a 20% drop over the next twelve months, and a total peak to trough fall of 45% in nominal terms, with the average house price falling to £109k

More bearish than me then

With all the dominoes starting to topple I could see the government panicking and pushing the 'print' button with abandon, this is just shaping up to be worse with every bit of fresh news that comes out.

Heyman_2

Well I'm glad they have it all planned out :rolleyes:

Easier just to say, 'we're in the sh*t, and we're going to be in the sh*t for a few years to come'. In fact, that's probably more accurate than the article.

Even if average house prices come down to 109K, I'm sure the future interest rate rises will swallow up any benefit. And with the banks (having had their fingers well and truly cremated) still wanting 40% deposit for their best deals, is the average first time buyer going to be able to stump up the necessary £43,600 plus costs to buy at a decent mortgage rate?

You can also bet that Gordo will be lowering the Stamp Duty threshold faster than you can say Stealth Tax!!!

Conrad

50% fall is unlikely.

Most of our freinds and neighbours have very small mortgages, little debt and thier current mortgage payments in most cases have fallen to a fraction of what they were.
At the weekend, talk was of people wanting to pay down thier remaining mortgage quicker and looking at investment property as the yield on cash is so low.

I have to say the bulk of people I meet in the real world seem very different from many of us on here (self included).

Heyman_2

Conrad wrote: »

I have to say the bulk of people I meet in the real world seem very different from many of us on here (self included).

Yeah - I think people on here assume that they're a good sample of the general populace but it just isn't the case.

The fact is that everyone on here is much much MUCH more switched on than yer average joe, because they have access to this fantastic resource. Not just this forum, but the whole site and all the contributors on it, who are from all walks of life.

torontoboy45

Heyman wrote: »

Yeah - I think people on here assume that they're a good sample of the general populace but it just isn't the case.

The fact is that everyone on here is much much MUCH more switched on than yer average joe, because they have access to this fantastic resource. Not just this forum, but the whole site and all the contributors on it, who are from all walks of life.

I won't flatter myself into claiming to be one of the 'switched on' but it's fair to say that I'm much more aware of the market (how it works, why it sometimes doesn't and which way it's headed) than I was 18 months ago, simply by visiting this and other sites.
but the great debate finished last yr. the bulls conceded defeat and stopped posting. since then the board has become a little parochial. still some good threads, for sure, but a lot of the more 'switched on' now seem to take the view 'job done' and are beginning to drift off, leaving the less savvy among us to chat, bicker,create 'down my street' threads and generally ponder the decline.
but, like I said: I'll still drop by, if only to get the haliwide figures before I buy my newspaper.

chucky

torontoboy45 wrote: »

I won't flatter myself into claiming to be one of the 'switched on' but it's fair to say that I'm much more aware of the market (how it works, why it sometimes doesn't and which way it's headed) than I was 18 months ago, simply by visiting this and other sites.
but the great debate finished last yr. the bulls conceded defeat and stopped posting. since then the board has become a little parochial. still some good threads, for sure, but a lot of the more 'switched on' now seem to take the view 'job done' and are beginning to drift off, leaving the less savvy among us to chat, bicker,create 'down my street' threads and generally ponder the decline.
but, like I said: I'll still drop by, if only to get the haliwide figures before I buy my newspaper.

a very good self-agrandising post. The article on this thread is from June 2008.

job done, what job done? predicting that there would be a crash since 2001? sorry to break the news but that was obvious.

You joined in Dec 2008 - you talk about 18 months and bulls being defeated,. What's you're old user name unless the comment should read 1 month?

And as for Haliwide numbers - would you really only take notice of an average index that only counts less than 30% of mortgage approvals. i'd go back and re-word the switched on comment.

Radiantsoul

geoffky wrote: »

LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO BE WORSE AS THEY RECKON ONL10% AND IT WAS 16%


The slide in house prices will continue for at least three years and crush the value of a home by almost 50% in real terms, according to a key index of property price futures. Indications from futures trading on long term property prices shows that the average UK home will recover its current value only in 2017.
By the end of this year prices will be down by 10% and by a further 10.5% in 2009, according to the index. Prices will keep dropping through 2010 and cut values by 23.5% when they hit rock bottom in 2011. House prices will then begin a slow climb back to current market values over a period of about six years.



http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/09/housingmarket.houseprices

I have not heard of the futures market on property prices and I doubt it is a particularly liquid market especially 9 years out, although perhaps I am wrong. However a futures market price is not really a future estimate of the price, but a price today for delivery in the future. The two are not necessarily the same.